2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

[kEiThZ]

I am happy with Canada's level of support. We need to be doing more to build up our own military however.

I'm not. Being the C student in a class of D students still makes you a C student. It's basically the US and to a lesser extent that UK and Poland carrying this war. And we wonder why adversarial powers like China and Russia think the West is weak.

We could do more and some of it would be doing ourselves favours. Send them our tanks and all our M777s and start replacement projects. We know towed artillery is less useful going forward anyway. Our tank fleet is a mess that is close to aging out. They'll be more useful in Ukraine than here. And would be a masterful diplomatic stroke in pressuring Germany, even if we just offer. We need to consider more modern tanks anyway. Heck, we could send our entire fleet of 500 relatively new TAPVs and I assure you nobody in the army would really miss them. Widely acknowledged to be a poor decision for the CA. We could just buy more LAVs from London to backfill.

Other than equipment, I'd like to see a more long term commitment. Like say $150M/mo in budgetary support to Ukraine's government. And if we aren't willing to part with the above kit, maybe $100M/mo in a common NATO fund to buy the Ukrainians the weapons they need. $3B per year is less than 1% of the federal budget and would make a massive difference in Ukraine. Knowing what the long term support is will let Ukraine plan more aggressively with what they have on hand.

Ukraine's partners need to start thinking about how to help Ukraine win quickly. Otherwise, the longer this goes on, the higher the reconstruction bill, refugee crisis and economic drag on Europe.

 

[DSC]

From Guardian:

Ukraine’s army boasted of territorial gains near the strategically vital southern city of Kherson on Wednesday as Nato allies delivered new air defence systems in the wake of Russia’s recent missile attacks across the country.

After 48 hours of Ukrainian cities coming under heavy fire, the government in Kyiv could celebrate positive news from both the frontlines and its diplomatic efforts to secure ground-to-air systems.

Five settlements in the Beryslav district in the north-east of the Kherson region – Novovasylivka, Novogrygorivka, Nova Kamyanka, Tryfonivka, Chervone – were said to have been taken from Russian forces over the day.

 

[Northern Light]

Just for the record. Canada has actually contributed more financially to Ukraine than Poland (total value); we've simply give more of the aid as $ vs kit.

 

[DSC]

Russia seems to retain its group of 5 friends in the General Assembly and there were 35 abstentions on today's vote opposing their invasion/'annexation'.

 

[lenaitch]

Heck, we could send our entire fleet of 500 relatively new TAPVs and I assure you nobody in the army would really miss them

I thought we wanted Ukraine to win.

 

[yrt+viva=1system]

Russia seems to retain its group of 5 friends in the General Assembly and there were 35 abstentions on today's vote opposing their invasion/'annexation'.

View attachment 432338

Fascinating how the Former Soviet Republics of Central Asia all abstained.

 

[kEiThZ]

Fascinating how the Former Soviet Republics of Central Asia all abstained.

They all have to worry about Russia taking it out on them.

 

[kEiThZ]

Just for the record. Canada has actually contributed more financially to Ukraine than Poland (total value); we've simply give more of the aid as $ vs kit.

Canada isn't taking nearly the amount of refugees that Poland is (1.4M), or providing the amount of kit they are (230 tanks, 70 IFVs, 110 SPGs). Not to mention actual skin in the game, being the rear area for Ukraine and the potential target for any Russian strike beyond Ukraine. But sure we give a few more $, so it looks great vs depreciated military kit. But I would bet money on the Polish donations being a lot more useful right now.

 

[Northern Light]

Kerch bridge update.

Passenger trains are crossing, slowly. No sign of loaded freight yet.

Trucks are crossing..........but there is a wee bit of a backlog...........

From:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580387804462215169

 

[Admiral Beez]

They all have to worry about Russia taking it out on them.

I don't think so. Kazakhstan is now firmly betting its future and security on China, and is moving away from Moscow.

China offers Kazakhstan security support, opposes 'external forces'

China is willing to increase "law enforcement and security" cooperation with neighbouring Kazakhstan and help oppose interference by "external forces", China's foreign minister said on Monday, after violent protests in the Central Asian country.

www.reuters.com

With Kazakhstan between then and Russia, the other 'Stans (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) are untouchable by Russia. All five 'Stans have expressed concerns over growing influence of Beijing and migration from China, but they're all safe from Russian interference, IMO.

Beijing will be the biggest anti-Russian NIMBY. Russia is a pariah state now, that no one wants to be associated with.

 

[junctionist]

Canada isn't taking nearly the amount of refugees that Poland is (1.4M), or providing the amount of kit they are (230 tanks, 70 IFVs, 110 SPGs). Not to mention actual skin in the game, being the rear area for Ukraine and the potential target for any Russian strike beyond Ukraine. But sure we give a few more $, so it looks great vs depreciated military kit. But I would bet money on the Polish donations being a lot more useful right now.

It's great that both countries have contributed a lot. While I strongly dislike Poland's current governing party, I think the Polish government has shown great leadership in terms of responding to the war in Ukraine and accepting the refugees. It's a refreshing contrast to Viktor Orban's reprehensible deference to Putin. Plus, Poland did very well in ending its reliance on Russian gas. The new pipeline between Poland and Norway recently came online.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

They all have to worry about Russia taking it out on them.

Through the very fact that they are unwilling to toe the Kremlin line is just as telling (it's frankly a defacto yes).

AoD

 

[Admiral Beez]

I think the Polish government has shown great leadership in terms of responding to the war in Ukraine

Agreed on Orban. If there's one NATO member that needs a shake it's Hungary. Turkey too, but they're trying.

Hungary’s ‘pro-Russia’ stance was inevitable

The posture is the result of historical and recent political factors, many of which have been shaped by Orbán himself.

www.politico.eu

 

[DSC]

 

[Richard White]

Agreed on Orban. If there's one NATO member that needs a shake it's Hungary. Turkey too, but they're trying.

Hungary’s ‘pro-Russia’ stance was inevitable

The posture is the result of historical and recent political factors, many of which have been shaped by Orbán himself.

www.politico.eu

Hungary has always been close to Russia. It is a historical thing.

That being said, it will be their demise. They need to rid themselves of their dependency on Russia as if they are still a satellite state of the USSR. Orban is no better than Belarus at the moment and quite frankly I would not be surprised if they became just as close to Russia.

The older generation of my family in Hungary love Russia, they think Orban is doing good. The younger generation that were born in the late 1980s and early 2000s want closer ties with the EU..