2018 Provincial Election Transit Promises

[kEiThZ]

Ah yes, in that case I agree on all points.

I do agree with many of your points about the upcoming election. Transit will not be a big issue. Anybody that cares about transit is voting Liberal. There's not even a play to be made.

The only play I wonder about, is if the PCs will push the HSR. Could be some votes to be had in Kitchener and London. Brown was sort of starting to drop criticisms about the Liberals on this file. Not saying they'll promise to build it in a term. But I think they might somehow use this in the election.

 

[BurlOak]

I do agree with many of your points about the upcoming election. Transit will not be a big issue. Anybody that cares about transit is voting Liberal. There's not even a play to be made.

The only play I wonder about, is if the PCs will push the HSR. Could be some votes to be had in Kitchener and London. Brown was sort of starting to drop criticisms about the Liberals on this file. Not saying they'll promise to build it in a term. But I think they might somehow use this in the election.

HSR to Windsor is about the dumbest idea I have heard in a while. I can't imagine the PC's picking this up. GO to London is more likely.

 

[christiesplits]

So, in order to stay competitive in the inner burbs, how soon does Wynne announce support for the Sheppard Extension over the DRL? This is the Scarborough Extension 2.0.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I do agree with many of your points about the upcoming election. Transit will not be a big issue. Anybody that cares about transit is voting Liberal. There's not even a play to be made.

The only play I wonder about, is if the PCs will push the HSR. Could be some votes to be had in Kitchener and London. Brown was sort of starting to drop criticisms about the Liberals on this file. Not saying they'll promise to build it in a term. But I think they might somehow use this in the election.

HSR to Windsor is about the dumbest idea I have heard in a while. I can't imagine the PC's picking this up. GO to London is more likely.

I think this ultimately depends on how competitive the race is in Kitchener, London and Windsor. I'm sure the Liberals have internal polling saying that this item could be a winner in those areas. If the PC think they can remain competitive there, they'll back it (or at least pretend to back it).

 

[TheTigerMaster]

So, in order to stay competitive in the inner burbs, how soon does Wynne announce support for the Sheppard Extension over the DRL? This is the Scarborough Extension 2.0.

This is a good point. I'd expect them to do exactly what they did with the Yonge North Subway Extension back in 2007: Commit to studying the project and perhaps progressing it to an EA. They are unlikely to commit any dollars to the Sheppard Extension, but that won't matter anyways, since voters won't distinguish between committing to work on a project, and committing funds to that project. The Liberals will also point out that the PC's transit proposals are not feasible with the funds they want to commit.

They'll commit to building the Relief Line Short, and further study of Relief Line Long (the latter of which is not news). The combination of DRL Long + SSE will likely be a winner for them in Scarborough.

 

[Neutrino]

Agreed. There is a lot of room for congestion to get worse.

I drive at least three times a week, and there are some combinations of routes/directions/drives that are exceptionally bad. For example, travelling from Toronto to Mississauga on the 401 at 5:00 PM. But if you reverse that direction, the roads are smooth sailing.

No way, the reverse is just as bad. My father commutes from his office in eastern Sauga to eastern North York via the 401 during rush and can attest to how bad it is, even as late as 7pm. The 401 is clogged in both directions from Milton to Markham Road as early as 3 and as late as 7:30. I don't think there's any such thing as reverse commuting on the 401 anymore. It's a wall of cars in all directions in all lanes. Between Weston and Pearson, the 401 can be standing still even at lunch time.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

No way, the reverse is just as bad. My father commutes from his office in eastern Sauga to eastern North York via the 401 during rush and can attest to how bad it is, even as late as 7pm. The 401 is clogged in both directions from Milton to Markham Road as early as 3 and as late as 7:30. I don't think there's any such thing as reverse commuting on the 401 anymore. It's a wall of cars in all directions in all lanes. Between Weston and Pearson, the 401 can be standing still even at lunch time.

The eastern half of the 401 (well, east of Yonge) is significantly better when reverse commuting

 

[Admiral Beez]

I don't think there's any such thing as reverse commuting on the 401 anymore.

Not on the 401, which makes sense since it runs across the middle of the city and serves as the primary route for transport trucks. But we reverse commuters exist on the QEW.

I reverse commute everyday from Cabbagetown to QEW/Hurontario and I can attest that I usually zoom on the QEW compared to those taking the usual direction.

I also reverse commute a few times each month by bike share and Go Train, and can attest that I’m zooming on the bike to Union Station, and then riding a near empty train to Port Credit, where I catch for $0.80 the Mississauga Transit bus up Hurontario. This last portion is the worst due to construction.

So, I am one reverse commuter. We do exist, and there is a big difference between our faster transit and those heading the more common direction.

 

[wopchop]

The fact that you can even call it a reverse commute is just proof of how meaningless it is in this conversation.

If we want to use the QEW as an example, you are talking 1h15m - 1h30m at rush hour from Oakville / West Mississauga to Downtown. Unfortunately, I don't know that you can fix this, as the GO Train is already providing significant relief. However, I do think that we underestimate how many people work in Toronto but not directly downtown within walking distance of Union Station. There might be something that can be done here to help encourage transit usage.

Same area to Pearson Employment areas is also about 1h - 1h20m depending on where you are situated.

 

[Neutrino]

However, I do think that we underestimate how many people work in Toronto but not directly downtown within walking distance of Union Station. There might be something that can be done here to help encourage transit usage.

Frequent local bus connections. In fact, that's one of the conditions that will make or break RER.

 

[kEiThZ]

So, in order to stay competitive in the inner burbs, how soon does Wynne announce support for the Sheppard Extension over the DRL? This is the Scarborough Extension 2.0.

Which one nets more ridings? Sheppard East or Yonge North?

I think this ultimately depends on how competitive the race is in Kitchener, London and Windsor. I'm sure the Liberals have internal polling saying that this item could be a winner in those areas. If the PC think they can remain competitive there, they'll back it (or at least pretend to back it).

The problem the Liberals face here is credibility. They promised the Scarborough Subway. And don't have a single shovel in the ground. Remember the anger from Southwestern Ontario when people found out that the HSR was just a ploy and nothing had been done? Why should anybody believe them on any other transit promise?

Sure, that's unfair, given that Ford might not build anything. But this is how anti-incumbent elections work. And I saw Ford and Cho use the Liberal failure to deliver on the Scarborough subway with my own eyes.

They'll commit to building the Relief Line Short, and further study of Relief Line Long (the latter of which is not news). The combination of DRL Long + SSE will likely be a winner for them in Scarborough.

I hate to say this. But if the Liberals do this, I'll start betting that they are going to lose. It pains me to say this, but the DRL is just not really understood outside of transit activists and a broader urbanist community. Nobody else, really, really cares about the DRL. Especially not the DRL as we conceive it (DRL Long). Announcing a downtown subway will only reinforce the downtown-centric elitist image of Wynne and the Liberals. And help deliver the ridings in Scarborough and Etobicoke (and maybe even North York) right into Ford's hands. I really hope she doesn't do this.

Like it or not. Ford as leader means downtown Toronto is a write-off for the next 4 years. This battle is going to be fought in the inner suburbs and the 905.

 

[44 North]

The PC party of the 1970s shares little more than a name with the PC party of today.

Am aware and is a reason I'm fond of Bill Davis, and actually had high hopes for Brown to right the ship. Was more trying to make a joke about Doug making it rain twenties as he's done before.

So, in order to stay competitive in the inner burbs, how soon does Wynne announce support for the Sheppard Extension over the DRL? This is the Scarborough Extension 2.0.

Current Liberal party already did that. Back in '10 they offered to *fully fund* a Sheppard Subway extension. It was either a subway on Sheppard East, or a subway on Eglinton East. Ford chose the latter. Point is the current party and Metrolinx opens the coffers when it suits them, and have recently admitted to tweaking businesses cases when politicians ask them.

 

[innsertnamehere]

I think RER will stay. It's an important 905 vote getter.

What I sweat about is the Hamilton and Hurontario LRTs. Maybe Finch, though I believe that will be too close to financial close (if not closed) by the time the PCs form government, provided they win.

The focus on new funding getting directed to subways will obviously not change.

 

[Allandale25]

^ Will be interesting to see what he does with HSR and the cost of the Bypass for further Kitchener Line service.

 

[hw621]

It's not about what Ford promised. It is more about what he can keep.