2018 Provincial Election Transit Promises

[drum118]

The election of Ford could split the PC party and more so if some of the claim of wrong doing is true.

Ford could be worse than old good Mike if he came to power, but only for 4 years.

Subway subway will be Ford call even if they are in the wrong place and cost more that other options.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

And the current Liberal party is nothing like the Mitchell Hepburn government of the 1930 - the last Liberal government that was above average.

Okay?

 

[rbt]

But so long as there is no debt on the Provincial books....

You've mentioned this a couple of times. I thought the accounting rules were changed (either under Eves or early McGuinty) in a way that treated required future payments for service as a liability right along-side direct debt.

That is both have an equal impact to borrowing limits, credit ratings, and minimum revenue required (may block a tax cut). I suppose the average Joe on the street might not call it debt but its impact to decision making flexibility is the same.

 

[crs1026]

You've mentioned this a couple of times. I thought the accounting rules were changed (either under Eves or early McGuinty) in a way that treated required future payments for service as a liability right along-side direct debt.

That is both have an equal impact to borrowing limits, credit ratings, and minimum revenue required (may block a tax cut). I suppose the average Joe on the street might not call it debt but its impact to decision making flexibility is the same.

I'm not an accountant, but I would think what can be said as a broad claim is as fine as any politician will slice it.

A credit rating agency might add the service contract liabilities to the debt and calculate the result as an aggregate, but if the pols can say "we didn't borrow money" and that is true in some limited and non-financially sophisticated way, they will use that line. Whether it's the whole story or not will be ignored.

- Paul

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I thing they have to so something in the GTA. The highways are jammed. The trains are packed.

So the question becomes what's the least they can get away with that will make a solid difference and stave off public anger. The only one project I can think of is GO RER. None of the suburban LRTs come close to delivering enough relief and votes.

It may not end up as RER as we envision it. Or even close it. But I don't think there's a way to avoid GO investment.

My read into the sudden fascination with Hydrail is not a sincere interest in advancing new tech.....but rather evidence that the Liberals realised they cannot keep spending, and started looking for things to throw overboard. So RER was likely dead anyways. As is HSR.

I can see Ford continuing with dieselised, perhaps half hourly off peak service on the existing network with the already committed expansions continuing. No wires, no EMU's. And no new stations, certainly not the palaces that ML is designing.

- Paul

I think on this forum we tend to vastly overstate how much people outside the City of Toronto care about transportation and infrastructure. Outside of Toronto, only a small fraction of commuters are getting around by transit (>10%). Most people just don't view transit as being particularly relevant in their lives. I've even had a Liberal Party staffer tell me that part of the reason that the Yonge North Subway Extension has hardly progressed for a decade is because York Region voters hardly give a damn about transit.

With that in mind, I think RER could be terminated or scaled down without controversy. Just do it slowly and iteratively to avoid controversy. Cancel electrification here or there, scale back service scheduling improvements, trim the number of stations, etc... Enough of that will have whatever remains of RER being not much of an improvement over the status quo.

I thing they have to so something in the GTA. The highways are jammed. The trains are packed.

This is a fallacy. Nothing has to be done. Letting congestion get worse is always an option. Heck, even the Liberal's infrastructure plan would have congestion significantly worsen over the next 20 years or so.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Ts is a fallacy. Nothing has to be done. Letting congestion get worse is always an option. Heck, even the Liberal's infrastructure plan would have congestion significantly worsen over the next 20 years or so.

I live in downtown east and work at QEW and Hurontario where free, covered parking is provided. It takes me about 30 mins to drive in good weather, about 45 in rain or snow. That's hardly congestion. When I've taken bikeshare and GoTrain it takes longer.

So, congestion will need to get a lot worse for it to be an election issue for this admittedly reverse commuter.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I live in downtown east and work at QEW and Hurontario where free, covered parking is provided. It takes me about 30 mins to drive in good weather, about 45 in rain or snow. That's hardly congestion. When I've taken bikeshare and GoTrain it takes longer.

So, congestion will need to get a lot worse for it to be an election issue for this admittedly reverse commuter.

Agreed. There is a lot of room for congestion to get worse.

I drive at least three times a week, and there are some combinations of routes/directions/drives that are exceptionally bad. For example, travelling from Toronto to Mississauga on the 401 at 5:00 PM. But if you reverse that direction, the roads are smooth sailing.

Even Downtown, I’m often surprised by how empty the roads are. A few weeks back I drove from DVP to Spadina at 4:30 PM with zero congestion whatsoever (in both directions). So yea, I feel like there is a lot of room for more congestion.

 

[11th]

Agreed. There is a lot of room for congestion to get worse.

I drive at least three times a week, and there are some combinations of routes/directions/drives that are exceptionally bad. For example, travelling from Toronto to Mississauga on the 401 at 5:00 PM. But if you reverse that direction, the roads are smooth sailing.

Even Downtown, I’m often surprised by how empty the roads are. A few weeks back I drove from DVP to Spadina at 4:30 PM with zero congestion whatsoever (in both directions). So yea, I feel like there is a lot of room for more congestion.

Not from my experience, 401 east from the airport to Kennedy is congested 3- 7pm every weekday. This really speaks for a need of transit for reverse commuting.

 

[kEiThZ]

I think on this forum we tend to vastly overstate how much people outside the City of Toronto care about transportation and infrastructure. Outside of Toronto, only a small fraction of commuters are getting around by transit (>10%). Most people just don't view transit as being particularly relevant in their lives.

Oh, I am not discounting the lack of value for transit outside Toronto. What I am saying is that the traffic concerns them. And the only way to relieve that will be transit. They could expand the highways. But there's no way to add road capacity and parking in downtown Toronto. At least not at the level to make a substantial difference.

Whoever wins next term will preside over the GTA adding 400k residents over their term. Just imagine what commutes will be like in 2023.

Letting congestion get worse is always an option.

It is indeed an option. If the party in power doesn't want to get 905 votes at the next election.

 

[kEiThZ]

I live in downtown east and work at QEW and Hurontario where free, covered parking is provided. It takes me about 30 mins to drive in good weather, about 45 in rain or snow. That's hardly congestion. When I've taken bikeshare and GoTrain it takes longer.

So, congestion will need to get a lot worse for it to be an election issue for this admittedly reverse commuter.

Reverse commuters, by definition, are outliers. The vast majority of commuters are not reverse commuting, and their commutes get worse with every added GTA resident, since by definition, most new residents will be peak direction commuters.

I predicts if nothing is done, by the middle of next decade, even people like you will be seeing substantially more (and noticeably impactful) congestion along your commute, than today.

 

[11th]

... its time to have a golden horeshoe only party. Enough ridings for a majority and then we would never need to worry about the Libs Cons and NDP.

Easier said than done. For starters how do you unite the views of downtowners and suburbanites, even within the city of Toronto?

 

[kEiThZ]

Not from my experience, 401 east from the airport to Kennedy is congested 3- 7pm every weekday. This really speaks for a need of transit for reverse commuting.

Yeah, they are looking at a rather narrow scenario. Downtown to Mississauga off-peak.

Off-peak directions do not exist in every corridor. Or at the same times.

Easier said than done. For starters how do you unite the views of downtowners and suburbanites, even within the city of Toronto?

Around money. Show them how much leave the GTA/GGH sends to the rest of Ontario. A lot of these transit or service debates would be solved if the GTA retained more of what it sent out.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Letting congestion get worse is always an option.

It is indeed an option. If the party in power doesn't want to get 905 votes at the next election.

You're assuming that the electorate will vote logically. The electorate favours instant gratification and often too daft and/or selfish to understand how decisions today will have ramifications for Ontarians decades from now. They also don't necessarily understand pesky technical details, such as the fact that widening highways won't decrease congestion. A candidate could very will win the 905 on a platform of low taxes (that instant gratification), no transit expansion, and perhaps a few road enhancements (to convince the electorate that they're doing something about congestion) over a platform of transit improvements that might materialize two decades from now.

And let's not discount the possibility of candidates lying as well. Doug Ford's platform is not financially plausible. He has something like a $6 Billion hole in it due to the cancelation of the carbon tax. The platform he ran on is deceitful, and something will have to give if he wants to deliver these promises if he were to win the Premiership. Big ticket items, such as transit, will likely be on the chopping block. Canceling RER electrification would be a lot less controversial than closing schools, for example.

 

[kEiThZ]

@TheTigerMaster

I was talking about policy under a hypothetical Ford government and the election that follows in 2023. If we're trying to dissect what Ford may do if he wins, this is where public sentiment comes into play.

So while you're right about this:

You're assuming that the electorate will vote logically.

They also don't necessarily understand pesky technical details,

If in 2023, congestion is substantially worse, and it's impacting other factors, like the economy, I think the public will punish Ford accordingly. And while Ford may not be smart enough to get this, I think the 905 MPs absolutely will be driving that agenda here.

People keep forgetting that there's more to party politics than just the leader. And provincial politics is a very different ballgame than municipal politics. Candidates have to be able to sell these policies. Ford can win one election by lying. It'll hard to repeat that performance if voters perceive he's delivered nothing.

I am not so much interested in what he says during the campaign, so much as what he might or might not deliver in government. Ditto for Wynne. I think Paul's post on Wynne pulling back could also prove prescient. And I agree with him. I think they were looking for a way to back out of (or scale back) the $15 billion needed for GO RER.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

@TheTigerMaster

I was talking about policy under a hypothetical Ford government and the election that follows in 2023. If we're trying to dissect what Ford may do if he wins, this is where public sentiment comes into play.

So while you're right about this:




If in 2023, congestion is substantially worse, and it's impacting other factors, like the economy, I think the public will punish Ford accordingly. And while Ford may not be smart enough to get this, I think the 905 MPs absolutely will be driving that agenda here.

People keep forgetting that there's more to party politics than just the leader. And provincial politics is a very different ballgame than municipal politics. Candidates have to be able to sell these policies. Ford can win one election by lying. It'll hard to repeat that performance if voters perceive he's delivered nothing.

I am not so much interested in what he says during the campaign, so much as what he might or might not deliver in government. Ditto for Wynne. I think Paul's post on Wynne pulling back could also prove prescient. And I agree with him. I think they were looking for a way to back out of (or scale back) the $15 billion needed for GO RER.

Ah yes, in that case I agree on all points.