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2015 Federal Election

I think Trudeau managed to differentiate himself during the debate. It is now very clear where he and the Liberals stand compared to the other two on various issues from economy to infrastructure.
 
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfo...hutout-in-newfoundland-and-labrador-1.3236439

There aren't many seats at stake, but people in Newfoundland sure do hate the CPC.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-muslim-conservative-racist-niqab-1.3236622

This Muslim lady is in the wrong party...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/gdp-outlook-1.3238659?cmp=rss

Yeah, the economy is great!

CBC News Alerts ‏@CBCAlerts 21m21 minutes ago
#NewBrunswick #Conservative candidate Louis Robichaud stepping down. Reason for move not immediately known. #elxn42 #NBpoli
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Down goes another one.
 
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I'd say the Cons stand a good chance of getting a majority. Trudeau (and the Con ads) have done a good job of alienating those that vote (upper middle class and retired folks) with his proposed tax schemes, while Muclair is strong only in Quebec.

The quick and effective reply to a possible Con small minority would be for Trudeau and Muclair to declare BEFORE the vote that they will form a coalition gov't, with the PM being whomever of the two gets the most seats and/or popular vote. This can only work if it's said before the vote though, otherwise the GG won't accept it, IMO.
 
Videodrome said:
https://twitter.com/CTVNews/status/647001931823628288

The Nanos poll says otherwise. Also, remember that poll putting the NDP in majority territory?
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Yeah. That Nanos poll is indicating that the prairies is the only region where the Conservatives have a strong lead. In Ontario they're essentially tied with the Liberals with the NDP far behind. Everywhere else the Cons are trailing the Liberals and/or the NDP by a large margin.
 
A Conservative majority would be disastrous. A Conservative minority is fine because it would almost certainly be brought down by an NDP/Liberal coalition or accord.
 
A conservative minority could fall as early as the the throne speech.

Éric Grenier @308dotcomAfter all the noise about a Conservative surge yesterday, today's polls: Nanos: LPC 32%, NDP 31%, CPC 29% Forum: LPC 31%, CPC 31%, NDP 28%
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Much ado about nothing....
 
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Videodrome said:
A conservative minority could fall as early as the the throne speech.
.
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I don't know. The will of the people has just been declared, can Trudeau and/or Muclair essentially say we don't give a sh#t what the people wanted and vote their chosen gov't out of office at the first opportunity? And if they do, and we have snap election that again results in a Con minority, what do the opposition guys do then?

The only way to stop the Cons is to have a two party system, or barring that, a pre-vote declaration that the Libs and NDP are willing to form the gov't if they have a combined greater total of seats in October. To be clear, the Governor General will almost certainly not accept this measure if the Libs/NDP suggest it only AFTER the results. If it's on the table, they must declare it now.

Once the Liberal Democrats have power they can make electoral reform a priority, work with the provinces to change to a proportional representation model integrated into FPTP. You can't scrap FPTP entirely as the smaller provinces would not go along.
 
Absolutely no to a two party system, and I have no idea why you think a pre-vote declaration for a coalition should be necessary. In most of the rest of the world coalitions are negotiated post-election when parties know how many seats they have.

Is FPTP constitutionally enshrined? Not sure why smaller provinces would have issues with proportional representation. All it would do is shift existing representation to agree more with the vote %. Smaller areas wouldn't lose representation in the house.
 
ttk77 said:
I have no idea why you think a pre-vote declaration for a coalition should be necessary. In most of the rest of the world coalitions are negotiated post-election when parties know how many seats they have.
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Rest of the world is not relevant here. We have no tradition or history of coalitions - the closest we've come in recent years is in 2008 where the Governor-General shutdown Parliament in order to avoid a Liberal-BQ coalition replacing the Con's minority

http://www.cbc.ca/m/touch/canada/story/1.748982

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...sought-prorogation-ex-adviser/article4370133/

Harper would again argue that the GG must award the gov't to the party that wins the most votes, and without a stated agreement from the Liberal-Democrats I'd say he'd have a strong case.

ttk77 said:
Is FPTP constitutionally enshrined? Not sure why smaller provinces would have issues with proportional representation. All it would do is shift existing representation to agree more with the vote %. Smaller areas wouldn't lose representation in the house.
Click to expand...
As long as the number of seats from each province does not change, the provinces may go along with changes to or scrapping of FPTP. The problem though is that true proportional representation means that each vote is equal, but in Canada the smaller provinces have great representation. For example, a vote in PEI is much more powerful than one in Ontario, since in PEI 146,000 people own four seats in Ottawa (36K people per seat), while in Ontario 14 million people own only 121 seats in Ottawa (115K people per seat). The only way to make each voter equal is to crack open the Constitution and its original 1867 acts of Confederation, which would be a huge endeavour equal to changing the head of state.
 
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