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2014 Municipal Election: Toronto Mayoral Race

The 2003 results show John Tory does not speak for the downtown or large parts of midtown & North York.

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Your map gives the impression that Tory had no support in those areas. However, as I assume those are first past the post accounts, the map doesn't tell us how close things got.

Anyway, if Miller was running this time, he might very well win again, but he's not.
 
Any more conservatives want to run? They're just making Chow's job easier ;)

Most people see that there is desire to keep the City fiscally responsible by keeping a conservative Mayor in power but not one who is an embarrasment or causes gridlock at City Hall with Council. Having multiple candidates running for the right doesn't mean that there is any desire to bring in an NDP government here. Why would the left think that they are going to save the City? Just elect someone who actually wants to improve upon the current base not destroy it and go back to Miller times.
 
Is Tory promising to fight for safe-injection and other drug harm reduction strategies to be introduced in Toronto? Does he seem particularly concerned about gender inequality? What's his position on the legalization of marijuana or the rights of sex-workers?
No, and nor should he, IMO. I could do without further addicts and prostitutes in my neighbourhood. If those are your priorities, then I'd say Tory is not your candidate. I'm not sure Chow would advocate for them either, but we'll see if she chooses to run.
 
No, and nor should he, IMO. I could do without further addicts and prostitutes in my neighbourhood. If those are your priorities, then I'd say Tory is not your candidate. I'm not sure Chow would advocate for them either, but we'll see if she chooses to run.

um, safe injection and other harm reduction programs as well as addressing the safety/legality of sex workers would actually lessen the numbers of "addicts and prostitutes" in your "neighbourhood.". These needn't necessarily be campaign issues but it would be nice to see a mayor and councilors listen to public health experts' recommendations and not get tied up in "morality" while looking at things that would improve the lives of everyone in the city.
 
Both Stintz and Tory will split the right-center vote. The far-right may reluctantly go to Tory. The extreme-right will stay with Ford.

That leaves the left going to Chow. The left-center may go to Chow, with a few going to Stintz. The center may go to Tory or Chow, depending on how the campaign goes.
 
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In the end Ford could all but guarentee a left wing victory, he is going to steal the "far core right" almost no matter what, leaving the more competent right wingers to fight over the scraps. I don't expect Stintz, Soknaki, and Tory to all make it to the final vote, but even if you have 3 people on the right and 1 on the left you have a significant gap there..
I largely agree with this, but the Ford factor isn't necessarily all "hard core right" (although it may be now). Looking at the last federal election, many people who voted Ford municipally, also voted for the NDP federally, especially in places like Scarborough. It's people looking for someone "on their side," and in many cases they are not even cognizant of the political spectrum nor understand it.

going to cross post my post from reddit:
basically I'm going to be looking for candidates that are promising more than the DRL, as all of them will be promising that and it very well could be funded by the election anyway.
Some key items TTC related I hope to see on mayoral candidates platforms:
1. BRT-lite as Keesmaat has been describing
2. Pre-Ford cuts crowding standards
3. Increased streetcar order to deal with crowding
4. Upping the amount of Trains on the YUS line as much as possible, it isn't at its true limit yet, and won't even be close come 2018
5. Waterfront East LRT/Streetcar
I'd add, some "core" transit improvements including longer rush hours (i.e., longer parking restrictions) and enforcement of (and better signage for) the 504 King streetcar priority lanes.
 
Both Stintz and Tory will split the right-center vote. The far-right may reluctantly go to Tory. The extreme-right will stay with Ford.

That leaves the left going to Chow. The left-center may go to Chow, with a few going to Stintz. The center may go to Tory or Chow, depending on how the campaign goes.

Sort of. By September there will be contenders and also-rans. It will be Chow, Ford and one of Stintz, Tory or Socknacki IMO. Ford will take his crazies, and leave Chow vs. someone on the right with a slight disadvantage because of Fords crazies. I still think the police will be giving Ford some steel bracelets prior to the election levelling the playing field. Chow vs. whoever on the right.
 
Why is there this expectation that Chow will enter the race? She has a good thing in Ottawa, her salary is higher than as mayor of Toronto, she has a vested MP pension that will only grow the longer she sits as an MP, she is revered by the Federal NDP as Layton's wife and successor, and her seat in Trinity-Spadina (or whatever interation after redistribution) is probably hers until she bequeaths it to Mike....What is in it for her as Mayor not salary, not pension (as mayor all she would have to build on is OMERS) and while she is well liked in the Old City that can't be said of Etobicoke, Scarborough, North York and York. All things being equal she is better off where she is.
 
It wasn't madrasas per se - but all religious-based schools - be it a Pentecostal school or a Jewish day school, or yes, a madrasa - provided they are approved and teach the standard Ontario curriculum (which limits how nutty these private schools can be).

It was a terrible policy, and I don't think it's all that liberal - it promotes private education at the expense of a pretty good, universal public education system here in Ontario, and was more to pander to Protestant but not so much the old-line, more liberal Christian groups such as the Anglican and United Churches) and Fundamentalist Christian and Jewish groups. It might have starved public schools once the cost of all those tax breaks were clear. The right policy would be to abolish the Catholic system - that would have been the liberal and risky thing to do.

The faith-based schools and saying creationism should be taught alongside evolution was political suicide! Also recently he said some incredibly stupid things about women too. John's a nice guy and a lot more into the centre than someone like Hudak, so he might get some of the more moderate liberal voters but he does suffer from Foot-in-mouth. Which will hurt if not kill his campaign if he isn't careful.
 
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Both Stintz and Tory will split the right-center vote. The far-right may reluctantly go to Tory. The extreme-right will stay with Ford.

Yes, of course the extreme-right will be supporting Ford. But so will new Canadians and the politically disengaged who don't view the world through the "left-right" lens. They see Ford as as the mayor who helps the little guy. The guy showed up once at their Baptist church and handed them a a business card. The guy who phoned back the elderly neighbour of a friend who had problems with their garbage collection.

I think we are focusing too much attention on vote splitting. Ford, for his unabashed far-right views, relates to a lot of people who don't pay attention to party colours or policy papers. The type of voters who vote in a Liberal MPP and MP for Etobicoke North but check their ballot next to a Ford on a municipal ballot.
 
I wouldn't say Olivia Chow isn't liked in the outer 416. One of the reasons she is a compelling candidate on the left is that she has the ability to pull votes from across the city, as her husband did (primarily in Scarborough/Etobicoke) even if wasn't always enough to flip the seat Most polling, for what its worth, has shows her doing fairly well in the outer 416 too.
 
I wouldn't say Olivia Chow isn't liked in the outer 416. One of the reasons she is a compelling candidate on the left is that she has the ability to pull votes from across the city, as her husband did (primarily in Scarborough/Etobicoke) even if wasn't always enough to flip the seat. Most polling, for what its worth, has shows her doing fairly well in the outer 416 too.

This is true. People assume anywhere outside the old city limits is a dead area for left wing politics. The federal NDP has seats in Scarborough-Southwest, Scarborough Rouge-River and York-South Weston - not your typical latte-sipping, volvo driving constituencies. The NDP held numerous seats in Scarborough and Etobicoke during the Rae years. East York in particular has a very strong left-wing electoral history from Agnes MacPhail and True Davidson to their last mayor Michael Prue.

Also consider the number of current left or left-of-centre councillors in the burbs including Augimeri, De Baeremaeker, Fillion, Cho and Carroll.
 
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No, and nor should he, IMO. I could do without further addicts and prostitutes in my neighbourhood. If those are your priorities, then I'd say Tory is not your candidate. I'm not sure Chow would advocate for them either, but we'll see if she chooses to run.

Thank you for proving my point that Tory is a social conservative who attracts the support of other social conservatives.

I doubt any of the candidates want to make safe-injection sites or prostitution an election issue. However, these issues might emerge over the next four years. I'd prefer a mayor who would put social justice (and facts) ahead of crime and punishment when it comes to things like drugs and prostitution. Based on her past career, I trust Chow would be on the right side of these issues even if she doesn't make it a centrepiece of her campaign.

Anyway, my overall point is that Chow represents a very different approach to municipal government than Tory. I believe her approach better reflects the values of the city as a whole. At the very least, however, she represents a large section of the electorate that Tory does not. There's absolutely no reason for Chow to voluntarily cede the election to Tory.
 
I wouldn't say Olivia Chow isn't liked in the outer 416. One of the reasons she is a compelling candidate on the left is that she has the ability to pull votes from across the city, as her husband did (primarily in Scarborough/Etobicoke) even if wasn't always enough to flip the seat Most polling, for what its worth, has shows her doing fairly well in the outer 416 too.

And keep in mind that Miller beat Tory in several suburban wards in 2003, and beat Pitfield in almost all the suburban wards in 2006. Many members of the "left" on City Council come from suburban wards.

People in the suburbs care about things like child care, libraries, schools, and community centres too. The families living in the outer 416 are potentially the strongest constituents for these municipal services. In a field full of candidates promising tax cuts and billion dollar subway projects, Chow could distinguish herself by promoting bread and butter services for families.

Remember the "fiscal conservative" agenda of the Ford administration that Stintz, Tory, and Soknaki seem so happy to embrace involved closing libraries and cutting bus routes. It isn't "latte-sipping downtown professionals" who got hit by those cuts.
 

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