2014 Municipal Election: Toronto Mayoral Race

[Videodrome]

I think this "tea party politics" reference is amusing because our version of conservatism would be moderate compared to the US. Even the right wing Wildrose would be in that category.

 

[nohostages]

Very true, and I was not trying to say you were wrong, but I feel it's a bad candidate problem more then anything. Chow, and Horvath, could not connect with the people. Wynne could. Tory is doing it. FWIW If Olivia really wanted to be mayor she could have been. You can tell John Tory wants to win this.

I concur. What didn't she have going for her? Should have had the female support, the immigrant vote, soccer moms, TTC taking moms along the underserviced areas of Scarborough. The progressives, The arts community, anybody with a soft spot for Jack, LGBT community, do wntowners...etc.
By running she precluded anyone else on the left from running making the choice to do so a heavily responsible one. She has failed those of us in that camp.

I feel it is so unlike her persona to run and do a lackluster job of it that we will eventually find out that there were other issues. Its probably the zeitgeist of this moment worming about in my mind, but I wouldn't be surprised if she is suffering some illness or personal issue that she decided not to trade on. The pain is two fold for the left as she was replaced by a liberal in her old job.

 

[Greg Banks]

Tiger Master...
Yes, there was a gradual shift in the Ont PC's from G Drew/L Frost thru J Robarts so that by the time WG Davis became premier there was little to differeniate the Blue Libs of Nixon from Davis's PC's so Ontario's electorate kept returning either majority or strong minority PC governments...The Big Blue Machine's wheels fell off when it veered back to the right under Frank Miller allowing Peterson's Libs in and later Rae's NDP...That Big Blue Machine has never found its equillibrum since it no longer knows what it is...

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I concur. What didn't she have going for her? Should have had the female support, the immigrant vote, soccer moms, TTC taking moms along the underserviced areas of Scarborough. The progressives, The arts community, anybody with a soft spot for Jack, LGBT community, do wntowners...etc.
By running she precluded anyone else on the left from running making the choice to do so a heavily responsible one. She has failed those of us in that camp.

I feel it is so unlike her persona to run and do a lackluster job of it that we will eventually find out that there were other issues. Its probably the zeitgeist of this moment worming about in my mind, but I wouldn't be surprised if she is suffering some illness or personal issue that she decided not to trade on. The pain is two fold for the left as she was replaced by a liberal in her old job.

If that's the case, then why would she run in the first place? Olivia is a strong woman; I doubt she'd let anyone or anything pressure her into running if she really didn't want to.

The only way I can see what you said being true is if something unfortunate happened after she announced that she was running.

 

[ehlow]

I concur. What didn't she have going for her? Should have had the female support, the immigrant vote, soccer moms, TTC taking moms along the underserviced areas of Scarborough. The progressives, The arts community, anybody with a soft spot for Jack, LGBT community, do wntowners...etc.
By running she precluded anyone else on the left from running making the choice to do so a heavily responsible one. She has failed those of us in that camp.

I feel it is so unlike her persona to run and do a lackluster job of it that we will eventually find out that there were other issues. Its probably the zeitgeist of this moment worming about in my mind, but I wouldn't be surprised if she is suffering some illness or personal issue that she decided not to trade on. The pain is two fold for the left as she was replaced by a liberal in her old job.

Are you saying she "should have had" female or immigrant votes, just because she's female & and an immigrant?

If so, I don't think that can be taken for granted, just like the Chinese Canadian vote wouldn't necessarily vote for someone just because they are Chinese Canadian (and I don't think they are).

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

I concur. What didn't she have going for her? Should have had the female support, the immigrant vote, soccer moms, TTC taking moms along the underserviced areas of Scarborough. The progressives, The arts community, anybody with a soft spot for Jack, LGBT community, do wntowners...etc.
By running she precluded anyone else on the left from running making the choice to do so a heavily responsible one. She has failed those of us in that camp.

I feel it is so unlike her persona to run and do a lackluster job of it that we will eventually find out that there were other issues. Its probably the zeitgeist of this moment worming about in my mind, but I wouldn't be surprised if she is suffering some illness or personal issue that she decided not to trade on. The pain is two fold for the left as she was replaced by a liberal in her old job.

If that's the case, then why would she run in the first place? Olivia is a strong woman; I doubt she'd let anyone or anything pressure her into running if she really didn't want to.

The only way I can see what you said being true is if something unfortunate happened after she announced that she was running.

That's right nohostages. She had every. Rob Ford was rob Ford. John Tory = three time loser. She should be head 60- 20-20 right now. Tiger, we say this because she was pushed into the race by close supporters (like Kinsella) and she seems disinterested most of the time. She thought this would be an easy, transition, thinking she was not Ford, and that was enough. She was wrong.

Are you saying she "should have had" female or immigrant votes, just because she's female & and an immigrant?

If so, I don't think that can be taken for granted, just like the Chinese Canadian vote wouldn't necessarily vote for someone just because they are Chinese Canadian (and I don't think they are).

I would agree with you, but usually minorities and women vote for people from their community. Unless they are victim of Ford propaganda. Sadly many minorities support Doug.

 

[Greg Banks]

That's right nohostages. She had every. Rob Ford was rob Ford. John Tory = three time loser. She should be head 60- 20-20 right now. Tiger, we say this because she was pushed into the race by close supporters (like Kinsella) and she seems disinterested most of the time. She thought this would be an easy, transition, thinking she was not Ford, and that was enough. She was wrong.

I'm sure when she annouced, she was led to believe she was the second coming, campaigning wasn't necessary, she was as good as acclaimed. The recognition Olivia wasn't going to have a free ride came too late at Parkview Hills and she has been playing a losing game of catch up ever since. It didn't have to be this way all she had to do was a small anouncement a week from April to June keep Tory and Ford off balance.....(and she should have coordinated announcements with D Soks to force the Fords into so much camera face time people would be sick and tired of seeing them)

 

[jozl]

Today, the "ThreeHundredEight.com" website is showing a very disturbing trend. Tory support is on a slight downward trend Doug F's is on an upward trajectory. Tory, according to "ThreeHundredEight.com", is still in the lead but his lead is down from earlier in the campaign. I can hardly believe that DF has any support at all. If, by some cruel cosmic joke, DF becomes mayor I'll consider moving somewhere more progressive than Toronto, like maybe Jackson Mississippi. I'm getting nervous. !@#$%!@#$%!!!

 

[picard102]

Olivia is a strong woman

Judging by her campaign, that's not the case.

 

[Scarberian]

Today, the "ThreeHundredEight.com" website is showing a very disturbing trend. Tory support is on a slight downward trend Doug F's is on an upward trajectory. Tory, according to "ThreeHundredEight.com", is still in the lead but his lead is down from earlier in the campaign. I can hardly believe that DF has any support at all. If, by some cruel cosmic joke, DF becomes mayor I'll consider moving somewhere more progressive than Toronto, like maybe Jackson Mississippi. I'm getting nervous. !@#$%!@#$%!!!

If Doug wins, it might be a short lived victory. Rob and Doug is facing another COI case that afaik, may get them thrown out if proven in court. And Rob is not exactly in the best of health either. If Doug wins the mayoral race, and the Fords skates away from this COI case, then this city has much bigger problems than I thought.

 

[Greg Banks]

Today, the "ThreeHundredEight.com" website is showing a very disturbing trend. Tory support is on a slight downward trend Doug F's is on an upward trajectory. Tory, according to "ThreeHundredEight.com", is still in the lead but his lead is down from earlier in the campaign. I can hardly believe that DF has any support at all. If, by some cruel cosmic joke, DF becomes mayor I'll consider moving somewhere more progressive than Toronto, like maybe Jackson Mississippi. I'm getting nervous. !@#$%!@#$%!!!

My own halfa**ed methology of following the polls show the same trend
last week J Tory 36.48%...D Ford 28.34%...O Chow...24.77%
this week J Tory 32.87%...D Ford 28.68%...O Chow...22.49%
J Tory's number is with 3% margin of error subtracted
D Ford and O Chow's number is with 3% margin of error added
J Tory is now below the 33.34% required plurality in a three person race...
Lets wait and see whether there is another Ipsos, Pollara or Ekos poll coming if JT can pull over the mark again.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Judging by her campaign, that's not the case.

I think that anyone who knew anything about Olivia would disagree.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Today, the "ThreeHundredEight.com" website is showing a very disturbing trend. Tory support is on a slight downward trend Doug F's is on an upward trajectory. Tory, according to "ThreeHundredEight.com", is still in the lead but his lead is down from earlier in the campaign. I can hardly believe that DF has any support at all. If, by some cruel cosmic joke, DF becomes mayor I'll consider moving somewhere more progressive than Toronto, like maybe Jackson Mississippi. I'm getting nervous. !@#$%!@#$%!!!

Ugh... Who the hell are there people who vote for Doug Ford!?

 

[StatGeek]

How giddy Harper must be about the mayoral election. He'll likely loose every Conservative MP in the city in 2015, but at least the Conservatives have achieved a near-monopoly on Toronto mayoral candidates. The mayoral election is looking more and more like an Alberta provincial election: PC (Tory) vs. Wild Rose (Ford).

It is pretty confusing. Liberal's freakin dominated in the provincial election. Conservatives were shut out, the NDP number dwindled in the city. Yet NO TRUE Liberal is willing to run for Mayor.

I think the Rightwing media did a hatchet job talking about the demise of the Liberal Party in the city/province before the provincial election that everybody got scared to run in the city as a Liberal which after the provincial showed that the term Liberal is not so bad. I wonder what will happen if somebody more aggressive like Adam Vaughan or Bob Rae was in this election instead of the pretty vanilla Chow and weak sauce Tory.

I will give credit for Doug for one single thing, he seems to be going back to the winning strategy of Rob from last election. He is buttering up Chow pretty hard recently with compliment (thinking she's not a threat) and making Tory seem like the odd-guy out. Rob did the same thing with Joey Pants and Pants fell right into it. I have a feeling the same happens with Chow as she is too focus in grabbing votes from Tory and not even bothering attacking Ford. Which of course it's a bad move as I think a lot of people want somebody to stand up to Ford as a main reason to vote for somebody.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

That's right nohostages. She had every. Rob Ford was rob Ford. John Tory = three time loser. She should be head 60- 20-20 right now. Tiger, we say this because she was pushed into the race by close supporters (like Kinsella) and she seems disinterested most of the time. She thought this would be an easy, transition, thinking she was not Ford, and that was enough. She was wrong.

I'm sure when she annouced, she was led to believe she was the second coming, campaigning wasn't necessary, she was as good as acclaimed. The recognition Olivia wasn't going to have a free ride came too late at Parkview Hills and she has been playing a losing game of catch up ever since. It didn't have to be this way all she had to do was a small anouncement a week from April to June keep Tory and Ford off balance.....(and she should have coordinated announcements with D Soks to force the Fords into so much camera face time people would be sick and tired of seeing them)

I agree. She was winning for 9 months. All she had to do was maintain the lead and be a better debater.

If Doug wins, it might be a short lived victory. Rob and Doug is facing another COI case that afaik, may get them thrown out if proven in court. And Rob is not exactly in the best of health either. If Doug wins the mayoral race, and the Fords skates away from this COI case, then this city has much bigger problems than I thought.

My own halfa**ed methology of following the polls show the same trend
last week J Tory 36.48%...D Ford 28.34%...O Chow...24.77%
this week J Tory 32.87%...D Ford 28.68%...O Chow...22.49%
J Tory's number is with 3% margin of error subtracted
D Ford and O Chow's number is with 3% margin of error added
J Tory is now below the 33.34% required plurality in a three person race...
Lets wait and see whether there is another Ipsos, Pollara or Ekos poll coming if JT can pull over the mark again.

It is pretty confusing. Liberal's freakin dominated in the provincial election. Conservatives were shut out, the NDP number dwindled in the city. Yet NO TRUE Liberal is willing to run for Mayor.

I think the Rightwing media did a hatchet job talking about the demise of the Liberal Party in the city/province before the provincial election that everybody got scared to run in the city as a Liberal which after the provincial showed that the term Liberal is not so bad. I wonder what will happen if somebody more aggressive like Adam Vaughan or Bob Rae was in this election instead of the pretty vanilla Chow and weak sauce Tory.

I will give credit for Doug for one single thing, he seems to be going back to the winning strategy of Rob from last election. He is buttering up Chow pretty hard recently with compliment (thinking she's not a threat) and making Tory seem like the odd-guy out. Rob did the same thing with Joey Pants and Pants fell right into it. I have a feeling the same happens with Chow as she is too focus in grabbing votes from Tory and not even bothering attacking Ford. Which of course it's a bad move as I think a lot of people want somebody to stand up to Ford as a main reason to vote for somebody.

At the end if Doug wins, it was because after 4 years. This was the best we could offer. It looks like Toronto is not the major player we claim to be. Next time though, we will actually feel the hurt.