World Population Project: The world will begin to have fewer humans from 2064

[Northern Light]

In what I consider to be a good news study, world fertility rates continue to fall; and its clearly linked to greater education and work opportunities for women, as well as access to contraception.

The article from the BBC discusses a new study showing human population will peak at 9.7B people in 2064 before falling back to 8.8B by centuries end.

The fertility rate have already come down to 2.4 children per woman (2.1 is replacement rate for population stability); but the numbers are tracking towards 1.7

Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born

Nearly every country will see their populations fall as the world has fewer babies.

www.bbc.com

From the article above:

Notable country projections:

Japan - population peaked in 2017, will have its population decline from 128M to 53M
Italy - 61M now will drop to a mere 28M

The single biggest decline in absolute numbers, China - from a peak of 1.4B in 2024............will drop to 732M by 2100.

India will grow a bit more before declining roughly to current levels.

With the last great population explosion likely to be Africa, before it too stabilizes with Nigeria growing to become the 2nd largest country in the world at 791M.

***

While I favour a declining population until humans represent a more reasonable demand on the environment.

There is little question such a decline will pose severe challenges as the age-curve inverts.

It will mean higher healthcare costs; pensions as we know them will not be viable without significantly raising retirement ages (if life expectancy stabilized, age 70-72 would probably do); but if it continues to rise, then look for a higher number to make things work.

***

The raw study is here: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext

From that, I see they project Canada to peak at 45.1M in 2078

They also show the US peaking at 363M.

As with any model there are loads of uncertainties.

I feel they have probably under-weighted climate change, and near-term migration ( I suspect Canada will grow more, sooner).

But it is an interesting read.

 

[adma]

One thing that *could* bump up the prospect of a population bust sooner rather than later is Covid--not just as a cause of death, but as disincentive for reproduction on economic and cultural (including social-distancing) grounds. Suddenly, perpetuating the delusion of having children and families doesn't seem like such an act of wisdom...

 

[Towered]

Some of these figures should be taken with a grain of salt - Japan's population projection to have less than half what it has now seems rather extreme...

 

[Northern Light]

Some of these figures should be taken with a grain of salt - Japan's population projection to have less than half what it has now seems rather extreme...

The numbers Japan is considering peg a range of population as low as 92M at 2050 with losses ~800,000 per year.

By 2100 that would give you 52M.

Now that's the lower end of the range; but still, not completely unrealistic.

Table 3

 

[Towered]

The numbers Japan is considering peg a range of population as low as 92M at 2050 with losses ~800,000 per year.

By 2100 that would give you 52M.

Now that's the lower end of the range; but still, not completely unrealistic.

Table 3

It would behoove them to incentivize a higher birth rate to prevent this from happening, though I'm sure that's been thought of...

 

[SunriseChampion]

It would behoove them to incentivize a higher birth rate to prevent this from happening, though I'm sure that's been thought of...

Not only has it been thought of, it has in fact been done.

I don't remember the specificities but do vaguely remember something about cheap housing/land in declining towns/villages for people with children. Or something related to that idea.

Trust, Abe is a nationalist....his government is all about keeping the floor under their feet in terms of population...for reasons beyond the usual aging population and related costs.

 

[Johnny Au]

One thing that *could* bump up the prospect of a population bust sooner rather than later is Covid--not just as a cause of death, but as disincentive for reproduction on economic and cultural (including social-distancing) grounds. Suddenly, perpetuating the delusion of having children and families doesn't seem like such an act of wisdom...

Some places will have a COVID-19-related baby boom nine months from now, but I find that imprudent.

 

[adma]

Some places will have a COVID-19-related baby boom nine months from now, but I find that imprudent.

Frankly, the nature of the pandemic is such as to *discourage* any such "nine months later" consequence--more like the inverse: a lot of those who were pregnant going *into* the pandemic might have had "had we knew this would happen..." retrospective second thoughts; or else are paring back their plans for larger families.

Though conversely, if the only people left reproducing are covidiots, it doesn't say much for the future of society given the whole nature-nurture thing.

Half a million fewer children? The coming COVID baby bust

By examining historical precedents, Melissa Kearney and Phillip B. Levine predict a significant drop in pregnancies in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic's economic and public health fallout.

www.brookings.edu

 

[SunriseChampion]

Though conversely, if the only people left reproducing are covidiots, it doesn't say much for the future of society given the whole nature-nurture thing.

I don't know......it's a truth of the universe that the people least likely able to support children are the ones having the most of them. I'm sure pumping out babies during a plague is an extension of that rabbit mentality.

 

[adma]

Like, if *this* is representative of who's still reproducing, there's no hope.

 

[karledice]

Good, the world cannot sustain resources at these population levels

 

[Northern Light]

The Link between Fertility and Income

As countries become richer, their fertility rates tend to decline.

www.stlouisfed.org

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/womens-educational-attainment-vs-fertility

[/URL]

 

[WislaHD]

Some of these figures should be taken with a grain of salt - Japan's population projection to have less than half what it has now seems rather extreme...

I think as with other big data and numbers, we aren't accustomed to thinking of population changes on a scale that is relatable to human experience.

I'll give an example. When I was growing up and reading on almanacs and atlases and learning about the world, I clearly remember reading that the population of Ukraine in the post-independence years was about 55m, which was considerably more than Poland's which has averaged around 38m depending on immigration/emigration cycles.

This year Ukraine has completed it's census and it's new population figure is for the first time, lower than Poland's. Largely as a consequence of emigration, lower average life expectancy compared to fellow Europeans, and (probably most significantly) the loss of territory following the annexation of Crimea by Russia.

Ukraine’s population falls behind Poland’s for the first time, electronic census says 5mn people lost since 2000

Ukraine’s population fell behind that of Poland for the first time as an electronic census revealed the number of citizens has dropped by some 5mn ...

www.intellinews.com

So a drastic demographic swing is possible within a lifetime. I think that Japan has serious demographic concerns and it should be interesting to watch it play out (especially the economic implications) from afar.

 

[WislaHD]

In what I consider to be a good news study, world fertility rates continue to fall;

I'm not so sure this alone is reason to celebrate without some further unpacking.

There might be globally fewer humans, but the distribution of those humans is still somewhat concerning, with the concerns differing depending on which lenses you put on.

With an ecological lens, you might point to the declining population of the industrialized global north as a reason to celebrate as those inhabitants consume substantial amounts of earth's resources per capita. However, the graph you posted in the OP displays how some countries like Nigeria are about to accelerate their population growth to unforeseen levels, likely bringing with it localized ecological destruction and perhaps some localized malthusian destabilization scenarios.

From an ideological or geopolitical lens, the West and it's liberal and democratic value-sets, are set to become very much a minority in the world stage. I know that this might be an unpopular thing to say given the current self-immolating political climate, but I actually cherish the Western tradition and the progress and prosperity it has given to human civilization. As things stand, we're looking at a global shifting of state/cultural power away from the Western nations, and that is not something I necessarily celebrate given that I live in and feel very strongly attached to one such nation (Canada).

 

[Northern Light]

I'm not so sure this alone is reason to celebrate without some further unpacking.

There might be globally fewer humans, but the distribution of those humans is still somewhat concerning, with the concerns differing depending on which lenses you put on.

With an ecological lens, you might point to the declining population of the industrialized global north as a reason to celebrate as those inhabitants consume substantial amounts of earth's resources per capita. However, the graph you posted in the OP displays how some countries like Nigeria are about to accelerate their population growth to unforeseen levels, likely bringing with it localized ecological destruction and perhaps some localized malthusian destabilization scenarios.

From an ideological or geopolitical lens, the West and it's liberal and democratic value-sets, are set to become very much a minority in the world stage. I know that this might be an unpopular thing to say given the current self-immolating political climate, but I actually cherish the Western tradition and the progress and prosperity it has given to human civilization. As things stand, we're looking at a global shifting of state/cultural power away from the Western nations, and that is not something I necessarily celebrate given that I live in and feel very strongly attached to one such nation (Canada).

The first thing is overall population growth being curbed.

This is important unto itself, because we, as a species have been on a completely unsustainable curve.

That said, the study notes that the population of China will fall by 1/2, to well less than 800M.

Yes, there would be growth in population in the developing world, notably Africa, and to a great degree Nigeria.

Certainly there is a risk of further, localized deforestation; but I think the risks are declining, rather than growing. Nigeria is urbanizing. Lagos is already huge, but will contain a substantial portion of the country's population growth.

I hasten to add; I don't expect growth to be as high in Nigeria as anticipated, given current trends. Nigeria's educated classes are growing apace, and we know there is an inverse correlation between the fertility rate and women's level of education.

As to ideology. I'm not sure what causes your worry.

Note that Nigeria is also a democracy, capitalist, and has an official language of English.

China is arguably more of an ideological threat; yet this study shows its population will 1/2 by 2100.

Given that the study ultimately shows population not that far above today's levels; and shows population growth in both Canada and the U.S., I don't see any existential threat here.

I also think Canada will out-grow the numbers indicated (substantially); while I also don't expect Italy to sink as a low as projected; the country will relent and allow more immigrants.