Who's going to be the next Liberal leader?

[Brandon716]

According to some people I'm hearing that the Liberals "need to become more centrist" and therefore I assume that means more economically conservative, because I don't know many people who want Canada to become more socially repressive from virtually any party except for a sizeable faction of the Tories.

And if that's the case, I don't know how more economically conservative the Liberals NEED to get considering people like Dion are avowed free traders who believe in corporate Canada as much as anything.

Instead of saying the party needs to get more socially this or economically that, I think the party needs visionary leadership, personality. Gerard Kennedy simply fits the bill of a younger, fresher, more next-gen Liberal party that restores the roots of the party in the vision of a guy who has worked his way up into where he is.

Others have suggested there needs to be a Liberal leader from outside Ontario. I argue exactly the opposite: Gerard Kennedy will shore up the base and bring Ontario back. But beyond geographics, he adds vision, youth, and leadership with a personality connection.

No one identifies with the Liberal party anymore because they don't know who it is. Dion isn't the face of the party, Kennedy I think can become a face people connect with.

Its unfortunate, but politics is personality as much as policy. I've learned that the hard way this year. Shrewd intellectuals like Hillary Clinton and Stephane Dion simply don't connect with voters if you want to do a cross-border vantage point to compare with.

With Kennedy I actually think he's got an intellectual edge to go with the personality, so its really a win-win.

 

[afransen]

The problem with Dion is that the CPC successfully managed to paint him as more of a socialist than his policies would suggest. I fear Kennedy would suffer the same problem.

What the Liberals need is not someone who is actually more fiscally conservative, but someone who is hard to paint as a socialist. I'm thinking Martin the Finance Minister (unlike Paul Martin the PM, who was a disaster of a spend-thrift lefty).

Those that have leaked to the NDP won't come back until they ditch Jack or it looks like the Liberals might win and Conservatives do 'Something Really Bad'. We haven't had that moment yet, from most voters' perspective. Don't worry though, it's coming.

 

[adma]

Once again, I find Kennedy very very hollow, like a centre-left Stockwell Day. At best, he'd be a skin-deep representative of younger/fresher leadership--the "edge" just isn't there. He and the mythic Justin The Flake deserve each other. He is to political idealism what removing the Nathan Phillips Square walkways is to urban planning idealism.

Whether you like them or not, the fossilized sexagenerian likes of IggyRaeMcKenna have "edge". For all his glibness, so does Jack Layton--and needless to say, so does Gilles Duceppe. And of GK's media-sexy political generation, when it comes to Liberal/nonaligned "progressives", I'll take Adam Vaughan instead--and when it comes to MPs, I'll choose the NDP's Charlie Angus instead.

As for Harper, he's too stolid for "edge", but he's got a kind of Miesian gravitas instead...

 

[Hydrogen]

Instead of saying the party needs to get more socially this or economically that, I think the party needs visionary leadership, personality. Gerard Kennedy simply fits the bill of a younger, fresher, more next-gen Liberal party that restores the roots of the party in the vision of a guy who has worked his way up into where he is.

Others have suggested there needs to be a Liberal leader from outside Ontario. I argue exactly the opposite: Gerard Kennedy will shore up the base and bring Ontario back. But beyond geographics, he adds vision, youth, and leadership with a personality connection.

With Kennedy I actually think he's got an intellectual edge to go with the personality, so its really a win-win.

If they don't stand for this or that, then what does the proposed next-gen Liberal actually stand for exactly?

In what way do you see Kennedy as visionary? What are his visionary proposals for the party and for the country?

As for youth, you are aware that Kennedy is about a year younger than Harper?

And what do you mean when you say "personality connection"? To be leader, every candidate has to make some sort of "personality connection." I recall that during his run for the provincial Liberal leadership, there was an "anybody but Kennedy" movement among long-time Liberals. That doesn't sound like a positive "personality connection."

Also, what makes you so sure that Kennedy will "shore up the base"? If his French does not improve he may have some trouble doing just that in Quebec. That province used to be a very big base for the Liberals.


I agree with adma, while Kennedy is a nice guy, there's not too much there politically that would make him stand out particularly well. His role as king-maker for Dion certainly won't help. It's left many previous Kennedy supporters a little less than positive about another potential run.

While some people have their positive impressions of him, that does not automatically make him suitable for Leadership of the party. He has no parliamentary experience at the federal level, and that fact would be noted.

If you're going to talk about experience, then Manley would stand out (and I'm not advocating him). He has considerable federal parliamentary experience, was a cabinet minister, has international profile, is a long-time Liberal and has a political machine in waiting (courtesy of McGuinty).

 

[adma]

As for youth, you are aware that Kennedy is about a year younger than Harper?

Then again, a past Kennedy was only about four years younger than Nixon (who himself was about as old as GK is today, maybe even younger). It ain't about how old you are; it's about how you old you *seem*.

Which can, of course, work both ways.

 

[Brandon716]

Agreed, its perceived youth. Besides, relative to the old Liberal guard Kennedy is young.

Besides, Kennedy is the only politician that brings two geographics to the table since a lot of people have focused on that (personally I don't think it matters as much, but...) he is elected from Toronto. He will likely pay attention to the GTA when other Liberal leaders from Quebec haven't. Martin, Dion, and Chretien were too focused on other things to care about the GTA. Kennedy won't be like that. Toronto should forget Rae and Ignatieff and focus on a new face in terms of this convention.

Kennedy is also home bred from Manitoba. It will be great having a Pirarie born Liberal elected from a GTA seat he now calls home to both bring Ontario back and attract some pirarie votes east of Alberta. Alberta is a lost cause, but Sask and Manitoba aren't.

Kennedy = win, win, win situation.

 

[kEiThZ]

Kennedy is also home bred from Manitoba. It will be great having a Pirarie born Liberal elected from a GTA seat he now calls home to both bring Ontario back and attract some pirarie votes east of Alberta. Alberta is a lost cause, but Sask and Manitoba aren't.

Kinda the reverse of Harper.....

Being from the GTA does not endear anyone in this country....

The Libs lost the Prairies because of policy (ie gun control, carbon tax on farmers). Getting a leader from there is not going to make a lick of difference unless they actually start listening to rural and western voters. Long gun registry may sell in Tdot but it's just another nail in the coffin up north and out west. It's not that I disagree with the policy but things like this have to be designed to accomodate rural concerns.

 

[Brandon716]

And people think Rae and Ignatieff will be better on that because??

You just pointed out why Kennedy is the best choice. He understands the concerns of the piraries and rural Canada but represents and understands and loves the GTA.

Win-Win.

Installing a devisive leadership with Rae or Ignatieff would be another Liberal disaster. Rae is a party switcher that had a bad record in Ontario. As much as people think the Rae days will be forgotten, I don't think the NDP people who would consider voting Liberal will give him a second chance. And those are votes Liberals need to win back.

Kennedy is smart enough to not make a green shift his only known campaign policy. I bet he would even put it on the backburner to focus on other issues while not ignoring it. His top issues are things like economics, health care, education. Things that resonate with voters.

Having to defend Ignatieff's comments on his support for the Iraq war in the past and having spent significant time in America is a weak point for him.

Why bring another candidate with that many negatives to the table??

Ignatieff and Rae aren't right for the job IMO.

 

[ShonTron]

If you're going to talk about experience, then Manley would stand out (and I'm not advocating him). He has considerable federal parliamentary experience, was a cabinet minister, has international profile, is a long-time Liberal and has a political machine in waiting (courtesy of McGuinty).

Was a long time Liberal. I don't think there'd be many party faithful who would want to bring him in after the stunt he pulled last year. If you thought the knives were out for Dion, you haven't seen anything yet. I say stop this Manley nonsense, he'd be farther right than Martin the finance minister, though the NDP would be salivating at such a choice.

 

[cacruden]

And people think Rae and Ignatieff will be better on that because??

You just pointed out why Kennedy is the best choice. He understands the concerns of the piraries and rural Canada but represents and understands and loves the GTA.

Win-Win.

Installing a devisive leadership with Rae or Ignatieff would be another Liberal disaster. Rae is a party switcher that had a bad record in Ontario. As much as people think the Rae days will be forgotten, I don't think the NDP people who would consider voting Liberal will give him a second chance. And those are votes Liberals need to win back.

Kennedy is smart enough to not make a green shift his only known campaign policy. I bet he would even put it on the backburner to focus on other issues while not ignoring it. His top issues are things like economics, health care, education. Things that resonate with voters.

Having to defend Ignatieff's comments on his support for the Iraq war in the past and having spent significant time in America is a weak point for him.

Why bring another candidate with that many negatives to the table??

Ignatieff and Rae aren't right for the job IMO.

If you consider Kennedy from Manitoba, then Harper is from Toronto (and a Liberal).... since that is where he started out....

We are probably at a point where we are just entering a fairly harsh recession, where almost all issues are going to play a backseat to the economy. So if McKenna does enter the race -- that is where his experience is going to be a big positive (at election time). People are going to be looking for someone to lead them out of this coming recession.

 

[cacruden]

Was a long time Liberal. I don't think there'd be many party faithful who would want to bring him in after the stunt he pulled last year. If you thought the knives were out for Dion, you haven't seen anything yet. I say stop this Manley nonsense, he'd be farther right than Martin the finance minister, though the NDP would be salivating at such a choice.

That was vague.... what stunt?

People keep saying Martin was right, he was right because of necessity (not because that was where his heart lay). When he became finance minister - he actually did not believe in a zero deficit.... but Canada was in such bad shape that we were on the verge of having to deal with the IMF. Countries that deal with IMF tend to be complete basket cases after - if they were not before.

 

[Hydrogen]

Was a long time Liberal. I don't think there'd be many party faithful who would want to bring him in after the stunt he pulled last year. If you thought the knives were out for Dion, you haven't seen anything yet. I say stop this Manley nonsense, he'd be farther right than Martin the finance minister, though the NDP would be salivating at such a choice.

Is still a long-time Liberal. And yes, there are party-faithful who would support a Manley bid at the leadership. Based on his record, McKenna' not exactly a fiscal left-winger, either. As for salivating, imagine the Conservative reaction to Bob Rae's economic record.

As for what the NDP says, who really cares? It's politics, and the NDP would do anything to draw differences between themselves and the Liberals - no matter how left-leaning a potential Liberal leader would try to be. For the dippers, the Liberals are and always will be an impediment to official NDP opposition status.

 

[Hydrogen]

Besides, Kennedy is the only politician that brings two geographics to the table since a lot of people have focused on that (personally I don't think it matters as much, but...) he is elected from Toronto. He will likely pay attention to the GTA when other Liberal leaders from Quebec haven't.

It's not like Liberal MP's from the area have paid great attention to GTA issues in the past. National agendas tend to focus on national issues. City issues are a national issue, and too many federal politicians overlook this. The Liberals under Martin dissolved their city agenda into a much more vague communities agenda so as not to look focussed on larger cities. That way they could try to appease voters outside of the cities who might believe that their tax dollars were unfairly supporting those nasty, crime-ridden big cities.

 

[cacruden]

Well, I would be happy with McKenna or Manley.

The center of any party is divergent from the center of the country (i.e. center is aligned somewhere around the right side of the Liberals; and left side of Conservatives). The NDP is to the left. Therefore the Liberals gain more by hemming in the Conservatives, by making a slight shift to the right. The NDP will not gain enough to do anything more than limit the Liberals to a minority government. I believe either of these Candidates have enough experience or trust that they can use the coming recession to slingshot into a position where the election is theirs to loose.

 

[Brandon716]

If you consider Kennedy from Manitoba, then Harper is from Toronto (and a Liberal).... since that is where he started out....

I wouldn't characterize it like that. My point wasn't that Kennedy's heart is still in Manitoba, its that he understands the politics of the piraries having grown up there. When you grow up in a certain area, it helps you understand the dynamic of that region. Its helped Harper connect with Ontario outside Toronto, afterall.

Manitoba is hardly all conservative as they have an NDP government. I emphasize again that I don't put extreme weight in geographics, but to have a leader like Kennedy who understands what is needed outside the GTA and understand what is needed inside the GTA is a net positive for everyone.

These other names people keep mentioning do not make me feel energetic about the future. Kennedy brings an energy these other guys don't have.

McKenna? He's Deputy Chair at TD Bank. He's also 60. He fits into the mold of the Liberals carrying another economically conservative, out of touch candidate who doesn't understand the needs of the voters Liberals need back. While he may have been more genuine in the past, people may not get the feeling he's currently in tune. Although he might help in Quebec?? I doubt that's a reason to like him... Dion didn't really fit the elitist mold, but his policy focused only on the Green Shift gave that out of touch appearance. Funny considering Dion's middle class beginnings.

Everyone keeps repeating you can't expect Liberals to cater to the GTA. Well in a Federal election, you're right. So why revolt and effectively support an anti-GTA candidate by proxy in the name of Stephen Harper by throwing your hands up and giving up before even trying? Having Kennedy is better than electing an anti-GTA Liberal or voting for another party and helping Harper, IMO.

I'm sure Jack Layton would effectively care more about funding priorities that would help Toronto than probably any Liberal, but is he electable?