Only re-energized crew can bail out sinking Liberal ship
Lost in debate over leadership is the fact that party has failed to mobilize membership
Oct 18, 2008 04:30 AM
THOMAS AXWORTHY
For three elections the Liberal party has been slowly drifting down from Jean Chrétien's era of majority governments – a decline that goes beyond the tactics of a particular campaign or the personality of a given leader. There is a structural defect in the DNA of the Liberal party itself. Until this is addressed, no quick fix will arrest the decline.
The Liberal party had allowed itself to become a flagship of convenience for passing traders, like David Emerson, and in so doing it has lost much of its crew. It still has a captain and several first mates anxious to move up the ladder but very few stokers in the boiler room.
Political parties are volunteer organizations. With volunteers' time being so pinched, intense motivation to commit to a cause is needed. Less than 2 per cent of Canadians are members of political parties and even those who take out a membership are not very active. Survey results show that most members attend only one meeting a year. And a mere 59 per cent of Canadians voted on Oct. 14 – the lowest percentage in Canadian history. Our mass democracy is losing mass.
While all parties in Western democracies are experiencing a decline in participation rates, the Liberal party is in particular trouble. It is a centre party as opposed to true believers on the right and left who make up in zeal what they lack in popular support. Fundraising data proves this point: from 2004 to mid-2008, the Conservative party raised 2 1/2 times more than the Liberals ($73 million to $28 million). The Conservatives did this through small, widely distributed donations. In 2007, they received 159,000 donations, the NDP 53,000 and only 36,000 gave to the Liberal party.
In assessing campaigns, the media tend to focus on the air war – the leader's tour and the coverage it generates, advertising and the debates. This aspect of campaigning is obviously critical, but without a ground campaign to get voters to the polls the best advertising will not be enough to swing a close election. Parties still need active members. The Liberal party needs them more than most because it has a large potential voter base that needs more encouragement to vote.
In their preoccupation with leadership, media and party insiders are missing the real issue. The primary challenge for the Liberal party is that its cause is no longer compelling enough to persuade Canadians to give up their leisure time to join its ranks.
Party renewal, therefore, is not some romantic notion pursued by idealists. Renewal demands hard-headed realism that requires a Liberal party overhaul; rebuilding itself brick by brick, riding-by-riding so it is once again competitive on the ground.
On election night I watched the returns with Barney Danson, Dorothy Davey and several other veterans of past Liberal campaigns. Danson, a former defence minster, recalled that he would send his most experienced volunteers into the large apartment complexes to ensure turnout. Davey, a legendary organizer, recalled inviting undecided citizens for coffee. Others emphasized the importance of signs to raise morale among the troops and help name recognition. None of these tasks can be accomplished without active volunteers.
Social scientists back up the insights of these veteran campaigners. In Politics is Local: National Politics at the Grassroots, R. Kenneth Carty and Monroe Eagles assess elections from 1988 to 2000 and their data confirm the common-sense observations of experienced campaign managers: Good local campaigns can influence 4 per cent to 5 per cent of the vote; the addition of 100 volunteers shifts votes; signs shift votes and local campaign spending shifts votes. In the 2000 election, for example, Liberal candidates spent only 72 per cent of their allowed local limit. On average, candidates could have spent $19,000 more. If every Liberal candidate had spent to their legal limit, the Liberal vote could have increased by 5 per cent. And since public subsidies give the parties $1.75 per vote, unharvested votes cost the Liberal party millions.
Further, early data show that only three percentage points determined the winners in 25 ridings across the country last Tuesday. In southwestern Ontario, for example, five ridings were separated by 1 per cent. Four of these were won by the Conservative party and, had the Liberal party won them instead, Stephen Harper would be even less satisfied and Stéphane Dion less worried about the results of Canada's 40th election.
So, how can the Liberals get these 100 volunteers per constituency or ensure that a local fundraising campaign reaches the legal limit? Local ridings that raise money should keep more of it, rather than sending it to central headquarters. And party members should have a real say in policy direction. If the Liberal membership, as a whole, had been given the opportunity to debate issues like the Green Shift, the election results might have been different.
A reformed policy process should begin with a thinkers conference, preferably in Kingston, to remind Liberals of Lester Pearson's great initiative in 1960; every riding should debate the directions suggested and then there should be a great party rally or mass Internet vote to decide on priorities.
More than a leadership convention, the Liberal party needs a period of self-examination. The good ship Liberal is taking on water and needs to energize her volunteer crew to bail her out.
Thomas S. Axworthy is the chair of the Centre for the Study of Democracy at Queen's University.
http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/519696