Actually it would appear they won that game. Look at their popularity before the economic update and now. It is an unmistakable jump in popularity. You are right in that most people (myself included) did think the party financing thing was a reckless idea that probably should have been deferred for a better time. Whatever hubris Harper was guilty of though surely pales in comparison to the 'hardball' the Coalition tried to play (and lost, badly) following it. In the grand scheme of political maneuvers, the party financing bit was not that significant. Dion and crew abstained from far more important votes on the environment, budget, Afghan mission and much more. You can't possibly suggest that political subsidies are more important to Canada than, say, the Afghan mission. The point is, Dion/Layton had much more practical and less egocentric options available to them than trying to depose the current cabinet after being soundly rejected just 6 weeks earlier.
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That option was always available to the Liberals. The coalition didn't change anything in that regard. In terms of political advantage though, there is no thinking party strategist who thinks the Libs/coalition has the upper hand here. It is an unthinkable opinion. They are polling at half of the Tories, they are deeply in debt, they have no get out to vote machine, they are tainted with the NDP, they are tainted with the Bloc, they are tainted with Dion, they are tainted with the 'Green Shift,' they have no policy platform, little experience in running a campaign, and virtually no support outside of the 416 & Montreal Island. Even Vancouver (!) is going Tory. Iggy has all but admitted that they have no hope of improving their lot in a spring election.
You don't seem to get it. In order for the NDP and Liberals to form a coalition, while simultaneously getting an agreement from the Bloc - a party itself that wants nothing to do with the Liberals or NDP - that they won't bring the government down, the only source that could bring that kind of cooperation together is an extreme act on the behalf of Harper.
Its really that simple. Anything else you use to explain it away is just nonsense IMO.
And Vancouver isn't going Tory. The some Liberal seats might go NDP or vice versa. Big ordeal. Woo hoo.. Some surprise.
Harper screwed up big time, and his response wasn't to admit defeat because of a mistake, it was to scream conspiracy against democracy and prorogue Parliament. That wreaks of a weak leader who has lost his standing within his own party. If Harper was remotely interested in working with Liberals, he would have initially come out and said that he made a mistake, would release a new budgetary proposal within hours, and cut the coalition before it had a chance to come together.
Harper didn't do so, and because of that he has proven that he isn't fit to lead Canada and he isn't fit to lead the Conservative Party of Canada.
Vancouver isn't "turning tory" ... the Conservative Party itself has a lot of members questioning Harper's leadership now while on contrast the Liberals just got a new vision and leader with a new energy for the party.
If you can't see that, then you're blind in political terms.
Any party whose leader screams the opposition is in an undemocratic conspiracy to overturn the government instead of admitting a mistake sounds more like desperation than leadership.
Even President Bush (this day and age) is more inclined to admit mistakes than Harper... Interesting.
Canadians aren't stupid. The natural reaction after the coalition was to ask "what the hell is this" and I expected temporary small surges in Conservative support quite frankly. But seeing how the Liberal party replaced its leader so quickly to prove it had the passion to carry through with serious governance showed the Liberals are ready to lead.
So now its the Conservatives who are dropping in the polls, and its up to you to read what poll you choose. Voters see through the b.s. now that they've had time to see that Harper ran away from the problem and started crying conspiracy rather than admit mistakes and be truthful.
And I also think voters in BC are coming around and realizing that the coalition was only between the Liberals and NDP, not the Bloc. The Bloc only agreed to support budgets and not vote on no-confidence for two years.
