Who's going to be the next Liberal leader?

[Mot]

I can't help thinking that if Canada and the West had stayed out of Afghanistan, that we'd be facing demands to intervene, similar to demands that we get involved militarily in Darfur.

The Bush'ite reasons were went notwithstanding, IMO we're doing good work in Afghanistan. As a father of young girls, I'm proud that with our military's help, Afghan girls can go to school (risking acid attacks, unfortunately) and a sense of normalcy is starting to take hold.

Rest assured, if the Afghan people did not want Canada or the West there, all of our troops would be dead or injured by now, and fleeing for home. No need to ask the Soviets, for our shared history in the British Empire demonstrates enough disasters in Afghanistan, such as massacre of the 44th East Essex Regiment under General Elphinstone at Gandamak.

What progress in Afghanistan provides a level of pride? Sure in Kabul it is relatively safe for girls to go to school, not in the rest of the country where warlords rule. You mentioned 15 girls were attacked with acid just a couple weeks ago, that should indicate the state of the mission after 7 years. Nato does not have control of Afghanistan, the taliban does. It's another Vietnam mistake caused by bad leadership.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I had a reply ready to go addressing the Vietman analogy, etc, but gave up since we'll only start a you said, i said, you said quoting exchange which tires everyone out.

 

[Observer Walt]

It speaks well for Bob Rae that he bowed out of the leadership race. As leader, he would have had a snowball's chance of winning much support in Ontario, no matter how much he claims to have "grown" since he was premier.

The Liberals are now down to Vancouver, the GTA, Montreal, and a few pockets in Atlantic Canada, and they can hardly afford to have a leader with so much baggage holding them back in Ontario at least.

I think Iggy has now had time to get over his big handicap, the fact that he had hardly spent any of his adult life in Canada until three years ago. With that now fading into the background, he can present himself as a credible leader. And my own opinion is that he is smart to be skeptical (very skeptical apparently) of the coalition. The people who cooked up that idea were not thinking long-term.

I predict no election for 18 months. Iggy is too smart to go charging into an election now, with no assurance of any gain at all above the 2008 result. He'll spend his time patching the cracks in his party, getting his own face better known, and looking for sources of funds.

 

[adma]

Yeah, Bugs Harper and Iggy Bloodcount dukeing it out with so much "abracadabra" and "hocus pocus"

Until Harper says "Walla Walla Washington" and Iggy turns into a three-headed coalition monster

 

[Brandon716]

Harper is looking weaker and weaker these days, he's becoming disliked by those in his own party. Quite the turnaround from October barely 2 months ago.

The coalition ordeal has been good for the system, it showed the Conservatives they couldn't get too partisan. At least Harper's true colors came through when he tried to bankrupt his opposition parties all together.

 

[Moonmoth]

Oh rats its Ignatieff. Though he will cream Harper, I am not an Iggy supporter. I may change my mind if he ends up honoring the coalition agreement and topples the gov't in Jan with the support of the other parties... but something tells me he;s an ego freak and will support Harper until he can get a minority or majority.

 

[kEiThZ]

but something tells me he;s an ego freak and will support Harper until he can get a minority or majority.

What's wrong with that? He's the leader of the Liberal party. His goal is to get the best possible outcome for the Liberal Party of Canada, not to merely act as Harper's foil.

 

[Whoaccio]

Oh rats its Ignatieff. Though he will cream Harper, I am not an Iggy supporter. I may change my mind if he ends up honoring the coalition agreement and topples the gov't in Jan with the support of the other parties... but something tells me he;s an ego freak and will support Harper until he can get a minority or majority.

Ok. the coalition is dead. Dead like the Lindberg baby. It was never supported at all by the Liberal Caucus. It was basically foisted on the party by Dion, who has moved from misunderstood nerd type to an egocentric blowhard, and a close group of advisors to heal his broken ego and screw his party for not supporting him fully. Even if the "Coalition" wasn't a complete PR bombshell (Harper is polling at 60% now...60 freaking percent, that is higher than any politician in over a century!) the coalition would probably fall apart based solely on it's own stupidity. The Liberals couldn't secure confidence in their own party base, i don't see how adding two parties that have screwed the Libs every chance they get would improve stability.

 

[Mot]

Ok. the coalition is dead. Dead like the Lindberg baby. It was never supported at all by the Liberal Caucus. It was basically foisted on the party by Dion, who has moved from misunderstood nerd type to an egocentric blowhard, and a close group of advisors to heal his broken ego and screw his party for not supporting him fully. Even if the "Coalition" wasn't a complete PR bombshell (Harper is polling at 60% now...60 freaking percent, that is higher than any politician in over a century!) the coalition would probably fall apart based solely on it's own stupidity. The Liberals couldn't secure confidence in their own party base, i don't see how adding two parties that have screwed the Libs every chance they get would improve stability.

You make it sound as if the Liberals can win just by scraping off some Conservatives votes. That is just not going to happen. Harper at 60% yet his party only won 38% of the vote in the last election.

 

[lordmandeep]

IGGY moving to the Centre could pick up a ton of former Chretien era Liberal supporters that voted for Dion, because Dion was some crazy weak left wing nut.

I cannot see Iggy getting over 100 seats, but if the Liberals get over 100 seats, Harper is severely weakened.


However polls show if you have a regular match up between Harper and Iggy, Harper supports drop but the NDP support really drops. 38-33%....

I hope the NDP go down next election.

We need to get rid of the useless parties in Ottawa that are just distractions.

The NDP with their recent antics have lost any credibility of being any sort of "new" modern party or the "outsider party".

NDP cannot run this country....


Its time to return to Majority govts and end this nonsense.

I rather have 4 years of solid rule, then having a Banana republic.

 

[Brandon716]

Oh rats its Ignatieff. Though he will cream Harper, I am not an Iggy supporter. I may change my mind if he ends up honoring the coalition agreement and topples the gov't in Jan with the support of the other parties... but something tells me he;s an ego freak and will support Harper until he can get a minority or majority.

I don't see Iggy supporting a Harper budget and keeping the Conservatives in power. At the very least I see him forging a new spring election as leader of the Liberals, even if he doesn't hold up the coalition long.

I think Iggy is going to publicly support the coalition, but ask the Governor General for another election. And once an election is called he's going solo again for the defeat of Harper.

If he tries to support a Harper budget, I will be very uncomfortable with Iggy. Dion made that mistake in 2007.

 

[Brandon716]

IGGY moving to the Centre could pick up a ton of former Chretien era Liberal supporters that voted for Dion, because Dion was some crazy weak left wing nut.

Are you aware that over a million former Liberal voters are now voting NDP (and many are also voting Green)? I'm sure you're aware of the NDP's political leanings, but voters are looking for strength, not because Dion was a left wing nut (which he wasn't, he was just very very weak).

I don't think you can turn rural Ontario into a total red color unless the right splits again, and that isn't happening in the forseeable future. What you can do is sway the ridings that voted Conservative because of the Liberal-NDP-Green split. The ridings that went Conservative by 50% or some huge number aren't winnable, but the many that voted Conservative because of the left split can certainly do it.

Peterborough, London West, Kitchener-Waterloo are just a few examples of easy wins for Ignatieff if he draws back NDP voters.

If I were a Liberal strategist I wouldn't rely on many comments I've read here, because they simply don't add up. You don't win over ridings you need by supporting a Harper budget, not that the coalition is the total answer either.

Quebec is where a majority will also be won, and that has to deal with the Bloc more than the NDP, Green and Tories vs Liberals. And given Harper's attitude lately and the Liberals at least listening to the Bloc, Quebecers are respecting federal Liberals slightly more. Just flip 5 or 10% more support in many ridings close to Montreal and you might have a Liberal majority in the works (as long as Iggy also pulls support back in Ontario and obviously keeps Atlantic Canada in red hands).

 

[adma]

I don't think you can turn rural Ontario into a total red color unless the right splits again, and that isn't happening in the forseeable future. What you can do is sway the ridings that voted Conservative because of the Liberal-NDP-Green split. The ridings that went Conservative by 50% or some huge number aren't winnable, but the many that voted Conservative because of the left split can certainly do it.

Though is it strictly a left-split (or ex-right-split) thing? After all, a lot of those ridings supported McGuinty provincially, as well (and the NDP/Green vote didn't differ much provincially vs federally). Perhaps there's just as much or even more gained by massaging the "McGuinty Conservatives", who more often than not were Chretien/Martin Conservatives, as well.

Oh, as for Harper at 60%: remember that that's the leader, not the ballot choice. Just like record high and record low approval rates for George W. Bush wouldn't have translated into the ballot box. A lot of that "approval" might just as well be a "I wouldn't vote for him, but" form of approval.

Even the polls which show the Tories still in mid-40s with twice the Liberals' support should best be understood in terms of "decided voters", i.e. while the left/opposition is bamboozled into indecision by what's going on, Tory supporters are very decided, thank you...

 

[Brandon716]

McGuinty connects with voters in rural Ontario, Dion did not. Ignatieff likely will.

I think Bob Rae would have as well, but that's history now.

Dion ran the most misguided campaign I think any politician has ran in a long time. He focused on one singular issue, people didn't understand it, and a massive world economic meltdown began to occur right at the election, not to mention a summer of the highest oil prices in history.

Dion had the perfect storm against him, for him to already be running a poor campaign. Intellectually I agreed with Dion: green up, transform the economy, change the tax structure to do so. Strategically I think he was the worst politician the Liberal party has seen in a lifetime. Dion had no clue that you should package a green platform as a footnote behind a larger message and platform.

 

[lordmandeep]

Liberals move to the left has been a disaster as one they had a leader who was weaker then the left wing party's leader and that a ton of moderates shifted to the Conservatives and didn't even come out to vote for the liberals.

In Brampton in almost every riding, the Tories came close not to gigantic vote gains, but the fact liberal support collapsed.


Iggy just has to get out former liberal voters out and they would win back ridings like Thornhill, Oak Ridges, Mississauga-Erindale and Oakville.

I doubt Iggy is planning for a hail mary, I think it will take two elections to take down Harper.