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Which projects are most likely to get cancelled?

terrafirma said:
Well put.

Can someone please point me to the firm that provided this kind of financing? I have a very interesting opportunity that involves acquiring a large amount of discounted/distressed debt secured against a condo project and I am looking for a financial partner.

Feel free to PM for details if you are interested.

Thank you
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How potentially "toxic" are these debt obligations ?? How many cents on the dollars ??
 
cdr108 said:
Well on January 20, 2009 the Bank of Canada lowered overnight rate target by 1/2 percentage point to 1 per cent.

Also, the Federal gov't purchased billions of mortgages from Canadian Banks.

What more do you want them to do ... finance the projects completely and continue the over-inflated RE bubble?

Personally, I'm against any form of bailout, whether it be for the auto industry or construction, etc.
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^ Totally agree. Just let the weak die off, let things fall to zero and reboot this sh#t show. The problem with that is that it would be political suicide for those in charge so we're forced to drink this Obama/Harper Kool-Aid and watch this slow train wreck unfold.
 
true Stimulus did not jump start the economy in the 30's.

It was WW2.

The Stimlus did however let the poor get through it.
 
I am starting to wonder if another world war will happen in the early-mid-teens...? Just a thought I had the other day, as to what gets a depression unwound....

There's some interesting videos on youtube about foreclosures in Vancouver/BC. Wonder how soon the ____ hits the fan in the GTA?
 
Purely my speculation based on how the world has changed in the past six months:

One Bloor - Due to construction costs, and the real possibility that people will not be able to close on small condos at those inflated prices.

Shangri La - Do we have that volume of fat cats to fill this building? How will a hotel fare in this climate?

Trump - Admitted to problems with the Chicago Trump project this week on Larry King.

U Condos - East Tower. This project launched just as the market crashed. West Tower approx 60 percent sold, will take months or yrs for this one to be fully sold, so why launch an East Tower?
 
I don't know who the owners of the Chicago Trump tower are, or what the story there has been. But it won't affect the Toronto Trump tower, which is under its own separate ownership.

In general I think it's reasonable to assume that any building under construction, specifically including Trump and Shangri-La, will proceed to completion. They are substantially sold and financing is in place, so why would construction not proceed?

One Bloor East has been the subject of very extensive speculation, including much on this forum, and much of it frankly baseless. It is known that they had financing delays because of the "credit crunch", and they are not the only ones. They are also still waiting for City approvals. But I still have a strong feeling that it will go ahead, as planned and within a reasonable time. I'll be very surprised if excavation is not under way by this summer.
 
Observer Walt said:
One Bloor East has been the subject of very extensive speculation, including much on this forum, and much of it frankly baseless. It is known that they had financing delays because of the "credit crunch", and they are not the only ones. They are also still waiting for City approvals. But I still have a strong feeling that it will go ahead, as planned and within a reasonable time. I'll be very surprised if excavation is not under way by this summer.
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It seemed to me that you are speculating that it will proceed just as much as others are speculating that it won't.
 
Well, if we're going to speculate, we should try and make reasoned, informed guesses. For instance:

One Bloor - Due to construction costs, and the real possibility that people will not be able to close on small condos at those inflated prices.
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Construction costs are likely to be significantly LOWER in a recession (cheaper materials, energy, labour), and any problems with people CLOSING would not occur until the building is completed and registered.
 
One Bloor - The engineering design for this super tall is apparently prohibitively expensive, and contractors are wary....

Its not a huge stretch to imagine purchasers walking away from deposits if Real Estate continiues its descent. Do I take a loss on my deposit up front, or do I close and have a scenario where the mortgage is greater than the market value? How are banks going to re-assess mortgage loans in the new environment of less liquidity, lower market values......
 
I would add...

The Condo Observer said:
One Bloor - The engineering design for this super tall is apparently prohibitively expensive, and contractors are wary....

Its not a huge stretch to imagine purchasers walking away from deposits if Real Estate continiues its descent. Do I take a loss on my deposit up front, or do I close and have a scenario where the mortgage is greater than the market value? How are banks going to re-assess mortgage loans in the new environment of less liquidity, lower market values......
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It also may be quite a bit more difficult to sell my current house/condo into a 'soft' market... many won't want to make the sale at a discount in order to close.
 
I suspect Observer is correct and most projects will proceed to completion. God help however many of the people who bought units in said projects as investments!

As for Mr. Lamb. He seems like an interesting character and tough cookie. If he fails as a real estate developer he can always take up magic like Mr. Trump. Mr. Trump's trick is to make people believe he is a successful real estate investor instead of a brilliant self-promoter!
 
lordmandeep said:
true Stimulus did not jump start the economy in the 30's.

It was WW2.

The Stimlus did however let the poor get through it.
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WW2 was a stimulus. A massive one far bigger than the New Deal.

Think about it, what does the government do in war? Spend money to buy/manufacture supplies and hire soldiers. It's a stimulus (though the word stimulus wasn't used back then)

The New Deal wasn't big enough, that's all.
 
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lowesthangingfruit said:
^ Totally agree. Just let the weak die off, let things fall to zero and reboot this sh#t show. The problem with that is that it would be political suicide for those in charge so we're forced to drink this Obama/Harper Kool-Aid and watch this slow train wreck unfold.
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When the weak dies off, few are left to buy your products/services, assuming that you are not weak yourself... when that day comes, you will die off. Then are you weak?

What we have here is a pit: people lose jobs -> companies lose sales -> companies cut jobs -> less sales -> companies cut jobs etc. The real thing is more complicated than this but this is probably over your head already.

Economics is far more complicated than you are ready to accept. You can't compare the economy to a ball; just because it drops doesn't mean it will rebound.
 
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To the topic of discussion. I have a down payment at the Modern, Richmond and Sherbourne and I'm sincerely hoping that it doesn't get built so I can get my money back. They have been purchased by Empire and if I'm reading their correspondance right looks like they will fold the project by May if sales don't meet their target and the economy deteriotes.

I'm not too concerned about the potential drop in value. I need the cash now as I'm out of work.
 
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