I don't necessarily share the conclusions of the commentator, but the article makes a number of points that are pretty valid
- There has indeed been a huge shift in the pro's and con's and fans and adversaries of HxR since the original HFR proposal, and we should not be using the original lens that HFR was conceived to glow in to make the investment decision we now face
- His description of the wobbly political and lobbying and corporate process that got us to today is pretty valid and insightful. It may be lamentable in many ways but it may have saved us from vanilla HFR and we may in hindsight be glad of that
- The Peterborough route may have been suitable for the original legacy HFR (now there's an ironic term) but it is unquestionably a bad choice for a high-end HSR line that is being contemplated .... provided that the cost constraints assumed by the original HFR have been removed
- The strategy of funding lesser projects that build demand towards some sort of better rail network was not wrongheaded, and may have been an enabler of the shift in taxpayer and investor mood that has emerged since 2015 and that now enables something better than the bare-bones legacy HFR
I'm not taking the suggested route on the Lakeshore too literally, but if one does now feel that a HSR-quality and -cost line can be justified, the proposal to forget Peterborough and build it somewhere parallel to the CN-CP Lakeshore lines is achievable and probably no more costly or time consuming - and possibly delivers greater value. Some gentle changing of the bargaining leverage of the freight railways might lead to use of some elements of their lines without causing them any objective harm.
And (the drum I keep beating) - quickly improving regional service to Lakeshore communities currently served by VIA on CNR may be a good "lesser project" strategy that justifies leaving HSR on the back burner a little longer. Maybe building some new trackage to get that service away from CN/CP in places is all that's needed to be car competitive - for now. It's a logical next step taking us beyond a LRT/GO-First strategy. We can eliminate as many auto trips (and reduce that amount of carbon) by removing regional trips from the 401.... targeting the through Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal driver targets a certain number of auto trips, but excludes an awful lot of the traffic in and out of the GTA. In fact, taking two Napanee-Toronto trips off the 401 does more good than taking one Toronto-Ottawa driver out of the mix.
- Paul