TTC: Sheppard Subway Expansion (Speculative)

[gweed123]

A London Overground type system on the rail corridors would be great, and leave the GO Trains for express services to the 905.

Express service to the 905, as well as express service for select nodes in the 416. Stations within the 416 should really only be located at the intersection with local rapid transit lines. That's the way to build a good density node, to have an express line, one or two local rapid transit lines, and a bunch of bus routes (maybe some of them even being BRT routes), all meet at the same spot.

This is why I see the area around Danforth & Main becoming huge, ditto for Dundas West and Bloor. The biggest hub in the west end of Toronto I think will be Kipling. Express rail for both the Milton and Midtown lines, B-D subway, Dundas LRT/BRT, and maybe some type of 427 express service. Couple that with a large area of industrial land to the south (the City would have to change its stance on employment lands though), and you have the makings of a pretty major hub. Not to mention the 427 and Gardiner/QEW nearby.

 

[M II A II R II K]

They can be rebranded as Danforth Junction, and Bloor Junction.

A Georgetown line route could include the Skydome and Cityplace downtown, and then a Parkdale Station at Queen, then Dundas West, St. Clair by Old Weston Road, and a York Centre at Eglinton, and Mount Dennis at Jane and so on. Would be kind of an express local route. They can call it GO Local or something.

 

[nfitz]

What the hell? Are they paving this subway in gold??

Much of it would appear to be the cost $250 million to $300 million to complete the work needed to determine if the project is feasible.

What's that ... about 1/3 of the cost to have completed the Sheppard LRT?

Another broken Ford promise - he promised he'd find a way to make it cheaper, not more expensive.

So what happens after they spend $300 million ... and conclude it isn't feasible?

 

[Filip]

Much of it would appear to be the cost $250 million to $300 million to complete the work needed to determine if the project is feasible.

What's that ... about 1/3 of the cost to have completed the Sheppard LRT?

Another broken Ford promise - he promised he'd find a way to make it cheaper, not more expensive.

So what happens after they spend $300 million ... and conclude it isn't feasible?

That's another thing I don't understand, how can a study cost as much as 1.5 km of subway!?!?!

 

[nfitz]

That's another thing I don't understand, how can a study cost as much as 1.5 km of subway!?!?!

Well ... a kilometre.

I'd think it would include the design ... which would be done far past the decision point on whether you'd do it. I don't see how it could simply be the EA and predesign work - and the media has likely not quoted him correctly (or Chong mis-spoke).

 

[rbt]

That's another thing I don't understand, how can a study cost as much as 1.5 km of subway!?!?!

They need to derisk the project.

You don't present a P3 offer with tight margins (10%/annum returns or less) without demonstrating that you can build the project for the amount of funds available. That means doing most of the engineering, soil samples, verifying the water table (an issue with Spadina), etc. They likely also need to spend a fair amount to verify future revenues from Tax Increment Financing or other schemes.

On the plus side, once the feasibility study is complete the line will be essentially ready to go.

 

[nfitz]

So we're supposed to blow another $300 million for a line that will never be built? How much more will this gravy train cost us?

 

[Filip]

So we're supposed to blow another $300 million for a line that will never be built? How much more will this gravy train cost us?

Hudak is quoted as wanting to spend $30 billion on transportation in the next 5 years. Take it with a grain of salt, but that could be an election promise - to fund the Sheppard line.

 

[rbt]

Hudak is quoted as wanting to spend $30 billion on transportation in the next 5 years. Take it with a grain of salt, but that could be an election promise - to fund the Sheppard line.

I took it to mean funding of things he will already be obligated to do and a few highway projects.

If you subtract everything McGuinty has announced funding for but is still in the future spending pile (Spadina, Eglinton, Georgetown, Union Station work, gas tax, streetcar purchases, Ottawa LRT, highway repair and maintenance, etc.) from $30B, and we're down to a couple billion per year for the entire province.

A Highway 407 and 404 extension, some escarpment and border crossing work, and a few suburban projects (I predict Kitchener and Mississauga LRT, additional VIVA/Züm work), $4B in GO projects (buy Lake Shore corridor, basic electrification from Hamilton to Oshawa), and that may be over the $30B promised.

The HST gas tax reduction probably comes from the $30B transportation budget too, especially if things are tight (US is due for another recession at the end of the next term; roughly every 7 years).

TTC has an SOGR shortfall of about $2B. The $30B cap will need to be bumped.

I think McGuinty would announce Yonge before Sheppard if he is still around. He really wants it (see rushed pre-requisite funding like ATC).

 

[gweed123]

Much of it would appear to be the cost $250 million to $300 million to complete the work needed to determine if the project is feasible.

What's that ... about 1/3 of the cost to have completed the Sheppard LRT?

Another broken Ford promise - he promised he'd find a way to make it cheaper, not more expensive.

So what happens after they spend $300 million ... and conclude it isn't feasible?

What I don't get is that this was already studied in the early 2000s. Yes, some of inputs have changed (density, ridership, etc), and some of the parameters have changed (travel patterns, etc), but this should really only be an update to the model that was made a decade ago. Determining if it's a go or no go should be pretty obvious pretty early on.

 

[Electrify]

Throwing a 'bend' in this thread, what do you guys think of the possibility of turning the line south along the DVP/Don Mills or Victoria Park/ O' Connor to become the fabled DLR?

 

[nfitz]

What I don't get is that this was already studied in the early 2000s. Yes, some of inputs have changed (density, ridership, etc), and some of the parameters have changed (travel patterns, etc), but this should really only be an update to the model that was made a decade ago. Determining if it's a go or no go should be pretty obvious pretty early on.

If the previous post is correct, and it would require detailed design before going to PPP, then there's a lot of work to do. Presumably you have to do all the word to nail down the costs to the point that you aren't constantly surprised by "high water tables" (which is of course, BS. The location of the water table is well known across the entire GTA - and the surprised are only an indication of the ignorance of whoever did the predesign, rather than reality; this is the kind of thing you get when you award design contracts to the lowest bidder).

Throwing a 'bend' in this thread, what do you guys think of the possibility of turning the line south along the DVP/Don Mills or Victoria Park/ O' Connor to become the fabled DLR?

My first reaction is that Ford wouldn't go for this, as it wouldn't give him his Sheppard subway. But then I thought about it for a minute ... Rob Ford appears to have quite a low intelligence quotient, and there's little evidence he even knows quite where Scarborough is ... so as long as we call it the Sheppard subway, and perhaps open a station at Bathurst and a station at Victoria Park ...

 

[UD2]

I wish people would stop talking about Ford. I really don't think he cares about the Sheppard subway. He only proposed it to stop the LRT construction.

 

[jje1000]

I wish people would stop talking about Ford. I really don't think he cares about the Sheppard subway. He only proposed it to stop the LRT construction.

Precisely this. Sheppard has little chance of being built unless Hudak or McGuinty fund it, and given the current deficit-slashing politics, I doubt they will.

Really, if Ford cares about subways, he would resurrect Network 2011.

 

[tkip]

I wish people would stop talking about Ford. I really don't think he cares about the Sheppard subway. He only proposed it to stop the LRT construction.

I too question Ford's intentions to actually get subways built but I'll give the man a chance to prove otherwise. And yes, there is a obsession on this board with some regarding the man.