TTC: Sheppard Subway Expansion (Speculative)

[Platform 27]

That extension would change the traveling habits of a lot of passengers. Those working in the financial district, west of University Ave. and those studying at U of T coming from Scarborough would stay on the train knowing what's waiting for them on the Yonge line. Do you waste time at Sheppard-Yonge watching overcrowded trains while waiting for a chance to squeeze in or keep you seat until Downsview and get a seat to get downtown?

I'm sorry, but this argument keeps coming up over and over and I always bite my tongue but I'm really getting sick of holding it. Forgive the oncoming rant.

A Sheppard West extension is less than useless at relieving downtown-bound pressure on Yonge. These hordes of people who might stay on Sheppard trains, skip Yonge, and use Spadina to go south into the core instead exist purely in people's imaginations.

Let's take an ideal person who'd benefit from a Sheppard West extension: someone who boards the subway system every morning at Don Mills en route to a job of some nature on Hospital Row at St. Patrick. Let's say right now they get on Sheppard subway at Don Mills at 8:00 am. Based on this TTC time chart (which builds in an average 4 minute transfer time delay at Sheppard-Yonge--debatable, but let's leave that alone for now), they can go west to Sheppard-Yonge, then south, go around the 'U' at Union, and reach St. Patrick at 8:40. People doing this commute in reality might find it faster to be getting out at Dundas and taking a streetcar or walking, but we'll ignore that option.

So let's do this again with a Sheppard West extension that runs over to current-day-Downsview. This hypothetical person still boards the Sheppard train at Don Mills at 8:00, and still gets as far as Yonge at 8:08, but now they stay on the train and keep going west. I don't know if there's a forecast run time buried somewhere in a report floating around out there somewhere, but based on the 4.3 km distance, and--for the sake of argument--2 intermediate stops, I'm going to say 7 minutes sounds about right. That puts them arriving at Downsview at 8:15. Let's then drop in the same 4 minute transfer lag as we did before, and then set off south on the Spadina line at 8:19. They roll into St. Patrick at... *drumroll*... 8:42.

So we've spent a cool couple of billion of dollars, and for our trouble the person whose geography seems perfectly aligned to avail of this new line now has a new, slower option. As you work around the 'U' through Osgoode, St. Andrew, Union, King etc. not only do you get into a more substantial share of the total volume of downtown destinations, but the size of the time penalty of taking the Downsview transfer option over the Yonge transfer option gets bigger and bigger. And let's not forget here, we're still really only potentially improving the commutes of a tiny slice of what is a comparatively puny number of riders on the Sheppard line to begin with.

But, you say, what about the crowding on the Yonge Line? Wouldn't this person be willing to trade 2 extra minutes, or 5 extra minutes, or 10 extra minutes, to avoid getting passed by a full train? First of all, this assumes a sort of geeky level of research and commute optimization that I think experience shows the vast majority of the public generally doesn't do. But secondly, let's be frank: if we're into a situation where southbound trains are routinely pulling out of North York Centre every morning with no room left for the entire rest of the Yonge line, then we have a much bigger problem in our hands that needs solving. I would suggest the magical $2+ billion that Sheppard West backers assume the government has under its mattress somewhere might be needed to tackle that problem, and I don't think the smartest way to spend it is by trying to divert a tiny fraction of Sheppard-to-Yonge transfers, which are a relatively minor contributor to Yonge's overall load to begin with.

It's not that a Sheppard West extension doesn't offer benefits to some members of the public. It does give the Sheppard East-catchment faster access to Yorkdale, York University, and whatever other substantive destinations might emerge on the Spadina extension someday in the distant future (VMC? Downsview Park redevelopment?). But in terms of trip generators (and even calling Yorkdale a trip generator is a bit of a stretch), that's it. Awkward truth, but thousands of people are not trying to get from Leslie station to the number 14 bus at Glencairn every day.

 

[whatever]

I'm sorry, but this argument keeps coming up over and over and I always bite my tongue but I'm really getting sick of holding it. Forgive the oncoming rant.

A Sheppard West extension is less than useless at relieving downtown-bound pressure on Yonge. These hordes of people who might stay on Sheppard trains, skip Yonge, and use Spadina to go south into the core instead exist purely in people's imaginations.

I don't think the justification for a Sheppard west extension is to take the place of a DRL, and I don't think anyone else is seriously arguing that point either. I think it's more a case that there's already 16,000 people a day taking the 84, and I suspect there's a lot more people that would be using Sheppard as a crosstown route if it weren't so darned discontinuous (I know there's not a chance I'd be willing to take the 85 to Don Mills, the subway five stops, then get on the 84, then take another bus up to York). Now, taking the 85 to Don Mills, taking the subway to Downsview, and then transferring to another subway to finish my trip? That's something I'd do. You just got me out of my car. How many other people might also be willing to make that trade? All I'm saying is that on Day 1 you'd already have at least the 16,000 from the 84 (I know, I know, nowhere near the numbers you need to justify subway), but it bears considering how many additional riders you might convince to take the route. I think it would be a boost for both Sheppard and TYSSE.

As for downtown relief, again, that isn't why I think the extension makes sense, but I also think you'd be surprised at how savvy most riders are. Already most people I know try to board trains strategically to get themselves close to exits/stairwells, I wouldn't put it past the average uptown rider to go the extra couple stops to the Spadina line in order to get a seat. Again, not the reason for doing the extension, but I bet you'd see at least some people taking the longer route and I have no doubt at all that the number of people fleeing to Spadina would greatly exceed the number of people trying to get from Downsview to Yonge

 

[Platform 27]

I don't think the justification for a Sheppard west extension is to take the place of a DRL, and I don't think anyone else is seriously arguing that point either.

 

[Dan416]

Who is that?

 

[Platform 27]

^The man behind the "North York Relief Line".

I think it's more a case that there's already 16,000 people a day taking the 84, and I suspect there's a lot more people that would be using Sheppard as a crosstown route if it weren't so darned discontinuous [...] All I'm saying is that on Day 1 you'd already have at least the 16,000 from the 84 (I know, I know, nowhere near the numbers you need to justify subway), but it bears considering how many additional riders you might convince to take the route. I think it would be a boost for both Sheppard and TYSSE.

You'll get no argument out of me that a Sheppard West extension offers some real benefits to people making the exact same sort of trip that you're outlining--between origin and destinations across the top of the 416, staying entirely above the 401 or perhaps dropping down just barely. The problem is there simply isn't a heck of a lot of you guys.

To put your 16,000 in comparison, here are the top 40 surface routes by ridership from last year. (The TTC aggregates a few together).

Rank	Route					Customers per day, Mon-Fri
1	504 King and 508 Lake Shore		57,300
2	510 Spadina and 509 Harbourfront	55,400
3	39 Finch East, 139 Finch-Don Mills, 
		and 199 Finch Rocket		45,200
4	501 Queen				43,500
5	32 Eglinton West			41,200
6	506 Carlton				40,900
7	25 Don Mills				40,800
8	29 Dufferin				39,700
9	35 Jane					39,300
10	36 Finch West				38,100
11	54 Lawrence East			33,800
12	512 St Clair				32,400
13	505 Dundas				31,900
14	60 Steeles West				29,800
15	85 Sheppard East			27,100
16	34 Eglinton East			26,900
17	106 York University and 
		196 York University Rocket	26,800
18	96 Wilson				24,700
19	95 York Mills				24,700
20	41 Keele				24,600
21	7 Bathurst				24,300
22	24 Victoria Park and 
		224 Victoria Park North		23,500
23	53 Steeles East				23,400
24	52 Lawrence West			22,400
25	63 Ossington				21,600
26	116 Morningside				21,300
27	102 Markham Rd				20,800
28	45 Kipling				18,900
29	511 Bathurst				17,600
30	165 Weston Rd North			17,400
31	58 Malton				17,000
32	37 Islington				16,500
33	86 Scarborough				16,400
34	68 Warden				16,200
35	100 Flemingdon Park			15,800
[b][u]36	84 Sheppard West			15,700[/b][/u]
37	47 Lansdowne				15,400
38	89 Weston				15,100
39	43 Kennedy				14,500
40	129 McCowan North			13,100

Now, it would be the height of foolishness to just use that list as the be all and end all of deciding which lines get upgraded to LRT or subway and in what order. With greater speed comes higher ridership on pretty much any corridor, and because of all manner of network quirks the "subway effect" is uneven--turning bus route A to a subway might double ridership, while turning bus route B to subway might quadruple ridership.

I think most folks would probably agree that because of how it fits into the overall architecture of the Toronto transit map, Sheppard West would probably have a stronger "subway multiplier" than some of the other options ahead of it on that list. But that doesn't change the fact that there are 35 other options ahead of it. It's fashionable around these parts to mock Giorgio Mammoliti for claiming a Finch subway is a viable idea, but at least he's talking about a route that as a starting point has roughly three times the bus ridership Sheppard West has. The only unique things a Sheppard West subway really has going for it are:
a) We can build onto an existing subway
b) We can get a potentially-useful yard connection

In a world where every dollar spent on one potential transit project will come at a cost of a dollar spent on another potential transit project, regardless of how deep the pot of money is, it's really hard to justify putting billions there ahead of many other corridors, and I don't just mean the DRL, but other subway/LRT/BRT/GO options in the suburbs as well.

(I know there's not a chance I'd be willing to take the 85 to Don Mills, the subway five stops, then get on the 84, then take another bus up to York). Now, taking the 85 to Don Mills, taking the subway to Downsview, and then transferring to another subway to finish my trip? That's something I'd do. You just got me out of my car.

Having a Sheppard West subway before TYSSE opens is an impossibility. So here are the real alternatives:
85 Bus (or SELRT) to Don Mills [transfer] Subway to Yonge [transfer] 84 Bus to Downsview [transfer] Subway to York U.
85 Bus (or SELRT) to Don Mills [transfer] Subway to Downsview [transfer] Subway to York U.

Three transfers versus two, plus about 10 minutes faster travel time covering the Yonge-Downsview gap underground versus a local stopping bus. And how much of that advantage could be shaved away by investing in some bus lanes?

As for downtown relief, again, that isn't why I think the extension makes sense, but I also think you'd be surprised at how savvy most riders are. Already most people I know try to board trains strategically to get themselves close to exits/stairwells, I wouldn't put it past the average uptown rider to go the extra couple stops to the Spadina line in order to get a seat. Again, not the reason for doing the extension, but I bet you'd see at least some people taking the longer route and I have no doubt at all that the number of people fleeing to Spadina would greatly exceed the number of people trying to get from Downsview to Yonge

I disagree with your last point. I bet you'd see more eastbound than westbound traffic every morning on a Sheppard West Extension.

The underlying reason that Yonge outdraws Spadina is that it's got more stuff worth going to on it: more jobs, more retail and so on. Now, I think any kind of medium-term scenario that people are putting out there where Yonge is full at North York Centre but Spadina has tumbleweed on it is a bit fanciful. More realistically we're looking at a situation where Yonge gets chronically full starting at Lawrence or Eglinton heading southbound each morning, and Spadina is a bit more spacious but no picnic either. Put a fast new route feeding the less-packed upper parts of Yonge and you can be darn sure it will pull people in and undo in part some of the helpful load balancing that TYSSE will accomplish.

For instance, of those 45000 folks riding Finch East daily, some are headed every morning to employment destinations downtown. Once TYSSE opens, the hope is most will be diverted from Yonge and instead head diagonally inbound on Spadina. However, for those working along Yonge from Eglinton south to, say, Wellesley, they'd potentially still wind up cutting across on Bloor-Danforth (or eventually the Eglinton LRT) and fight the crowds on Yonge the rest of the way to work. If you provide a fast northern crosstown route that bypasses Eglinton or Bloor and connects with the comparatively uncrowded world of Sheppard-Yonge, you can be darn sure everyone bound for Yonge will exercise their option of getting onto it as far upstream as possible. Not an earthshatteringly huge number of people, but bigger than the potential flow the other way.

 

[whatever]

I think most folks would probably agree that because of how it fits into the overall architecture of the Toronto transit map, Sheppard West would probably have a stronger "subway multiplier" than some of the other options ahead of it on that list. But that doesn't change the fact that there are 35 other options ahead of it. It's fashionable around these parts to mock Giorgio Mammoliti for claiming a Finch subway is a viable idea, but at least he's talking about a route that as a starting point has roughly three times the bus ridership Sheppard West has. The only unique things a Sheppard West subway really has going for it are:
a) We can build onto an existing subway
b) We can get a potentially-useful yard connection

In a world where every dollar spent on one potential transit project will come at a cost of a dollar spent on another potential transit project, regardless of how deep the pot of money is, it's really hard to justify putting billions there ahead of many other corridors, and I don't just mean the DRL, but other subway/LRT/BRT/GO options in the suburbs as well.

I readily acknowledge the 16,000 isn't an earth shattering number of people, but to put this in perspective more than a dozen of those routes with higher ridership are already either serviced by or going to be serviced by higher order transit (i.e.; the streetcar network, and the routes that are already due to be replaced with LRT or subway service). Many of the remaining routes would be exceedingly difficult to upgrade to higher order transit (either because the lines would be orphaned from the network, or lack of space, or engineering difficulties). Other routes are exceptionally long, particularly in comparison to the relatively short 84.

I recognize that we have a limited pool of resources and unfortunately we're in a situation where some transit projects get funded and others don't. That's a shame because the city could really use some heavy investment in our rapid transit system. If it came down to either a DRL or a Sheppard West extension I would readily agree that the DRL takes precedence, but after the DRL I think the connection to Downsview would be the next logical step, and to my original point, I think it's a step that should be taken before we do anything on Sheppard East

 

[BurlOak]

From a utility of the Sheppard Subway perspective, having trains running from Don Mills to York U would be a huge boost for a lot of eastern Toronto York U students. And as I mentioned earlier, it would make the Finch West LRT feel like less of a spur line, because the Finch West LRT would be feeding directly into the terminus (or 1 station off of the terminus) of the Sheppard Subway, allowing for direct access to either downtown via the Spadina Subway, or North York via the Sheppard Subway. The frequencies on both of these lines are low enough that interlining shouldn't be a problem.

That extension would change the traveling habits of a lot of passengers. Those working in the financial district, west of University Ave. and those studying at U of T coming from Scarborough would stay on the train knowing what's waiting for them on the Yonge line. Do you waste time at Sheppard-Yonge watching overcrowded trains while waiting for a chance to squeeze in or keep you seat until Downsview and get a seat to get downtown?

I tried sketching out an option, where the Westbound Sheppard would connect to Northbound Spadina north of the existing Downsview Station, while the Eastbound Sheppard would leave the Southbound Spadina line east of the new Downsview Station and connect up with Sheppard. I was hoping that it could go above the Spadina line at Allen Road, but I do not think it can be done - it had to go under. This option had the added problem of having no Sheppard line station at the existing Downsview Station. Turned out to be a bad option.

Next I figured if Sheppard had to go under the Spadina line anyways, then it both directions should stay together. Here the Sheppard line would go roughly parallel to Sheppard (on the South side). The Eastbound Sheppard would break away from the Southbound Spadina line east of the new Downsview Station, while the Westbound Sheppard would climb after passing under Allen Road so that it could go above the Spadina line (top of tunnel is about 10m underground here) and join the Northbound Spadina line from the north side, to the east of the new Downsview Station. This option would allow a Sheppard line station to be located at (near) the existing Downsview Station.

I used this EA to help determine elevations and alignments (http://www.ttc.ca/pdf/about_the_ttc...hange_in_subway_tunnel_ea_addendum_2_revi.pdf)

 

[gweed123]

I tried sketching out an option, where the Westbound Sheppard would connect to Northbound Spadina north of the existing Downsview Station, while the Eastbound Sheppard would leave the Southbound Spadina line east of the new Downsview Station and connect up with Sheppard. I was hoping that it could go above the Spadina line at Allen Road, but I do not think it can be done - it had to go under. This option had the added problem of having no Sheppard line station at the existing Downsview Station. Turned out to be a bad option.

View attachment 9908

Next I figured if Sheppard had to go under the Spadina line anyways, then it both directions should stay together. Here the Sheppard line would go roughly parallel to Sheppard (on the South side). The Eastbound Sheppard would break away from the Southbound Spadina line east of the new Downsview Station, while the Westbound Sheppard would climb after passing under Allen Road so that it could go above the Spadina line (top of tunnel is about 10m underground here) and join the Northbound Spadina line from the north side, to the east of the new Downsview Station. This option would allow a Sheppard line station to be located at (near) the existing Downsview Station.

View attachment 9909

I used this EA to help determine elevations and alignments (http://www.ttc.ca/pdf/about_the_ttc...hange_in_subway_tunnel_ea_addendum_2_revi.pdf)

Good analysis. Crazy idea for you: what is the Sheppard line doesn't need a station at Sheppard West (Downsview)? Having the "merging station" be Downsview Park may make more sense, especially considering the intermodal nature of that station. Put a Sheppard line station between Wilson Heights Blvd and Faywood Blvd instead. If a connection is really needed, build a Spadina-like walkway between them.

That way, the interchange isn't so conflicted with Downsview station. Coming southbound on Spadina, trains can either turn right to go to Downsview, or continue straight to head onto Sheppard.

Realistically, if it weren't a terminus station, Downsview would be pretty lightly used. Downsview Park station makes much more sense from an intermodal facility perspective.

 

[11th]

Good analysis. Crazy idea for you: what is the Sheppard line doesn't need a station at Sheppard West (Downsview)? Having the "merging station" be Downsview Park may make more sense, especially considering the intermodal nature of that station. Put a Sheppard line station between Wilson Heights Blvd and Faywood Blvd instead. If a connection is really needed, build a Spadina-like walkway between them.

That way, the interchange isn't so conflicted with Downsview station. Coming southbound on Spadina, trains can either turn right to go to Downsview, or continue straight to head onto Sheppard.

Realistically, if it weren't a terminus station, Downsview would be pretty lightly used. Downsview Park station makes much more sense from an intermodal facility perspective.

Not that crazy of an idea. Downsview Park can also be expanded into 2-island-platforms with 3 tracks. Sheppard only needs one track with its 5~6min headways.
And I agree with skipping Sheppard West, using Downsview Park as the cross-platform interchange station, and leaving the option open for a station between Wilson Heights and Faywood (preferably closer to Faywood).

 

[diminutive]

I still don't see what sort of problem a Sheppard West subway would solve. It would be useful for some York students, but an easier solution would just be to run express buses from Finch or Sheppard or wherever stations. They'd probably loose lots of money, but compared to blowing a billion on a subway, if not more, that's a way cheaper option.

I really think Toronto has an overfascination with 'crosstown' routes which completely miss the city's biggest destination (downtown..), forcing everyone to transfer onto the YUS. Like, even looking on a map, it would be insane to have two radial routes linked by 3 orbital routes.

 

[11th]

I don't think the justification for a Sheppard west extension is to take the place of a DRL, and I don't think anyone else is seriously arguing that point either. I think it's more a case that there's already 16,000 people a day taking the 84, and I suspect there's a lot more people that would be using Sheppard as a crosstown route if it weren't so darned discontinuous (I know there's not a chance I'd be willing to take the 85 to Don Mills, the subway five stops, then get on the 84, then take another bus up to York). Now, taking the 85 to Don Mills, taking the subway to Downsview, and then transferring to another subway to finish my trip? That's something I'd do. You just got me out of my car. How many other people might also be willing to make that trade? All I'm saying is that on Day 1 you'd already have at least the 16,000 from the 84 (I know, I know, nowhere near the numbers you need to justify subway), but it bears considering how many additional riders you might convince to take the route. I think it would be a boost for both Sheppard and TYSSE.

Also keep in mind York is also a GO transit hub. I'm sure a lot of students would trade taking the Greyhound at Dundas (and maybe in the future, Union), for the 407 GO buses at York.

 

[M II A II R II K]

It would be even more useful if it were to go past Downsview Park and replace the Finch LRT line and hook up with the Georgetown Line as well.

 

[EnviroTO]

Aren't the TR cars designed to be expandable (to 7-cars) ? They should be able to be rearranged into 4-cars trains as well. If not, then the design is very stupid.

They accepted less flexibility for the ability to walk between cars and have more space for passengers. The only way to decouple the cars now is in the shop and I'm not sure what the effort is. Since the trains will no longer be made up of 4 or 6 cars of the same type any deviation from a 6 car train order means a special order or having spare cars sitting around with no cab.

It might be so on the this forum (that people think the subway was a bad idea). We are still basing this on the current route, Yonge-Don Mills. Would a route from Agincourt-Downsview be a bad idea? Maybe not; even some who are pro-SELRT would agree to that. Is spending more (than converting to LRT) to get a complete subway from Agincourt to Downsview worth the money (couple that with all-day service on Barrie, Stouffville and Richmond Hill GO lines)? That is debatable.

No, even with a route from Finch-Weston through to Scarborough Centre a subway would have been a bad idea because money would have been wasted since the capacity of a subway is not required now or in 50 years from now. The YUS is a subway built 50 years ago and it goes right through the core of the city with the only freeway having 4 to 6 lanes. There will never be a trip generator even a third that size on the Sheppard line running parallel to a 12 to 16 lane freeway. Definitely if the Sheppard subway ran from Finch-Weston to Scarborough Centre it would be a far more useful piece of infrastructure, but since it could have been built as something smaller scale more suited to the anticipated ridership at a fraction of the cost it would be a waste of money.

 

[gweed123]

Not that crazy of an idea. Downsview Park can also be expanded into 2-island-platforms with 3 tracks. Sheppard only needs one track with its 5~6min headways.
And I agree with skipping Sheppard West, using Downsview Park as the cross-platform interchange station, and leaving the option open for a station between Wilson Heights and Faywood (preferably closer to Faywood).

You may not even need the extra platform there. If Spadina is short-turning at some point further south from there, then theoretically there would be a 'slot' open for a Sheppard train further up the line. If capacity really becomes a problem (which it won't for a long time), a 2nd platform and 3rd track for Sheppard can be added way in the future.

Run Spadina trains to Downsview, Sheppard trains to York U, and Spadina trains to Vaughan. That way you get that stratified service on the Spadina extension, while adequately serving that crosstown pattern.

 

[diminutive]

They accepted less flexibility for the ability to walk between cars and have more space for passengers. The only way to decouple the cars now is in the shop and I'm not sure what the effort is. Since the trains will no longer be made up of 4 or 6 cars of the same type any deviation from a 6 car train order means a special order or having spare cars sitting around with no cab.

I don't think this will be an issue. Even if the TTC couldn't make a 4 car TR train in house it wouldn't make much of a difference. We would only need new rolling stock when the T1s need replacement. Replacing our T1s will need a massive rolling stock order anyways, and attaching a request for a small number of those trains to be configured as 4 cars is hardly a big issue.