TTC: Sheppard Subway Expansion (Speculative)

[BurlOak]

Still doesn't change the fact that at this point it would be a huge drain on operating expenses for decades to come. But yes, elevated would probably be preferable to in-median LRT when the time comes that either are actually warranted.

Another question is whether this is the best choice from the network perspective. I would think that a combination of subway from Downsview to Kennedy, and LRT from Kennedy to Meadowvale, would be more effective in relieving other major bus routes in Scarborough.

So if the subway was extended as elevated from Don Mills to Kennedy (GO), this would involve about 1km tunnel under hwy 404 ($400M), and then 4km of elevated (4km x $150M/km = $600M). So, this whole thing would be about $1B - the same cost as the SELRT to Morningside.

If we look at the West extension, an elevated option would cost about $600M (3.5km x $150M/km plus 0.25km x $300M near Senlac).

Thus, elevated subway from Downsview to Senlac, buried from Senlac to Consumers Road, and elevated from Consumers to Agincourt GO would cost about $1.6B.

If LRT is $60M per km, then the cost of an LRT would be $200M (3.5 km x $60M/km) from Downsview to Senlac, $100M for the Senlac portal, $700M to convert the tunnel to LRT, $400M to tunnel under 404, and $250M (4 km x $60M/km) from Consumers to Kennedy (GO). This adds up to $1.65B - essentially the same cost as extending the subway.

 

[gweed123]

So if the subway was extended as elevated from Don Mills to Kennedy (GO), this would involve about 1km tunnel under hwy 404 ($400M), and then 4km of elevated (4km x $150M/km = $600M). So, this whole thing would be about $1B - the same cost as the SELRT to Morningside.

If we look at the West extension, an elevated option would cost about $600M (3.5km x $150M/km plus 0.25km x $300M near Senlac).

Thus, elevated subway from Downsview to Senlac, buried from Senlac to Consumers Road, and elevated from Consumers to Agincourt GO would cost about $1.6B.

If LRT is $60M per km, then the cost of an LRT would be $200M (3.5 km x $60M/km) from Downsview to Senlac, $100M for the Senlac portal, $700M to convert the tunnel to LRT, $400M to tunnel under 404, and $250M (4 km x $60M/km) from Consumers to Kennedy (GO). This adds up to $1.65B - essentially the same cost as extending the subway.

Does anyone know the per km cost of the elevated sections of the Evergreen line in Vancouver? I would assume that the cost would be similar for ICTS vs HRT. $150 M/km seems low to me, but I could be wrong.

 

[BurlOak]

Does anyone know the per km cost of the elevated sections of the Evergreen line in Vancouver? I would assume that the cost would be similar for ICTS vs HRT. $150 M/km seems low to me, but I could be wrong.

According to Wiki, the cost estimate is $1.4B for 11 km, or $130M/km.

 

[gweed123]

According to Wiki, the cost estimate is $1.4B for 11 km, or $130M/km.

Is that the average of everything, or specifically the elevated sections? Because I know the Evergreen line is pretty much an "all of the above" when it comes to operating environments. It has elevated, tunnelled, and at-grade.

If the Evergreen line is $130M/km, then $150M/km for HRT is probably a reasonable assumption. I stand corrected.

 

[Dan416]

Worst idea? The route between was on Don Mills Road (already planned for LRT) and Finch East from Yonge to Don Mills - which is the busiest bus route in the city. Surely Finch East would qualify for an LRT on it's own merits! Even if the route itself was a flop, it would have built LRT where it's very much needed.

I have no problem with a FELRT. I just think the FWLRT and FELRT should be connected, not Frankensteined to the SELRT.

 

[nfitz]

According to Wiki, the cost estimate is $1.4B for 11 km, or $130M/km.

That doesn't include any rolling stock or yard though, does it?

 

[11th]

So if the subway was extended as elevated from Don Mills to Kennedy (GO), this would involve about 1km tunnel under hwy 404 ($400M), and then 4km of elevated (4km x $150M/km = $600M). So, this whole thing would be about $1B - the same cost as the SELRT to Morningside.

If we look at the West extension, an elevated option would cost about $600M (3.5km x $150M/km plus 0.25km x $300M near Senlac).

Thus, elevated subway from Downsview to Senlac, buried from Senlac to Consumers Road, and elevated from Consumers to Agincourt GO would cost about $1.6B.

If LRT is $60M per km, then the cost of an LRT would be $200M (3.5 km x $60M/km) from Downsview to Senlac, $100M for the Senlac portal, $700M to convert the tunnel to LRT, $400M to tunnel under 404, and $250M (4 km x $60M/km) from Consumers to Kennedy (GO). This adds up to $1.65B - essentially the same cost as extending the subway.

The balance tips in favour of LRT if the line is ever extended beyond Downsview and Kennedy/Agincourt. But then, the question comes back to, will there be a need for rail transit (LRT or HRT) at all beyond those points in the near future? Strangely that's the same point used to justify LRT instead of HRT, east of Don Mills.
Building HRT on Sheppard is about network connectivity for the existing subway (HRT) grid; while building LRT seems to be about connectivity for the yet-to-exist LRT network.

 

[BurlOak]

I was just wondering, in the Sheppard Subway extension to STC, were there any plans for a maintenance yard in the East? If I recall correctly, the early 2000 EA did not include an extension to Downsview in the West so the Wilson yard was not part of the plan.

 

[EnviroTO]

So if the subway was extended as elevated from Don Mills to Kennedy (GO), this would involve about 1km tunnel under hwy 404 ($400M), and then 4km of elevated (4km x $150M/km = $600M). So, this whole thing would be about $1B - the same cost as the SELRT to Morningside.

If we look at the West extension, an elevated option would cost about $600M (3.5km x $150M/km plus 0.25km x $300M near Senlac).

Thus, elevated subway from Downsview to Senlac, buried from Senlac to Consumers Road, and elevated from Consumers to Agincourt GO would cost about $1.6B.

If LRT is $60M per km, then the cost of an LRT would be $200M (3.5 km x $60M/km) from Downsview to Senlac, $100M for the Senlac portal, $700M to convert the tunnel to LRT, $400M to tunnel under 404, and $250M (4 km x $60M/km) from Consumers to Kennedy (GO). This adds up to $1.65B - essentially the same cost as extending the subway.

That defies logic. There is a serious underestimating of the cost to build bridges to carry full sized metro and elevated stations that are 150m long, and a serious over estimation of the effort to convert an existing tunnel and existing station boxes to LRT from subway required to say that an LRT project which involves no additional elevated or tunneled structure compared to the alternative is more expensive due to tunnel conversion. The existing tunnel is 5.5km long and you are talking about 9km of new full size metro. For that to be true elevated full size metro and large capacity stations would need to be less than 50% more than surface LRT with concrete pad stations to be believable. I can't believe that for only 50% more per kilometer we could have elevated full size metro compared to surface LRT.

 

[Solid Snake]

That defies logic. There is a serious underestimating of the cost to build bridges to carry full sized metro and elevated stationsThule that are 150m long, and a serious over estimation of the effort to convert an existing tunnel and existing station boxes to LRT from subway required to say that an LRT project which involves no additional elevated or tunneled structure compared to the alternative is more expensive due to tunnel conversion. The existing tunnel is 5.5km long and you are talking about 9km of new full size metro. For that to be true elevated full size metro and large capacity stations would need to be less than 50% more than surface LRT with concrete pad stations to be believable. I can't believe that for only 50% more per kilometer we could have elevated full size metro compared to surface LRT.

Wasn't there already a study stating that conversion was not worth it and would be more expensive than leaving Sheppard as a subway?

Why are you assuming converting Sheppard to LRT wouldn't be that expensive? On the contrary, it is a huge job to do that.

Is the Sheppard losing money? Sure it is. But...

-Why is that subway open until 2am when the Yonge line isn't???

-Why isn't the line shutdown at midnight when the Yonge line is during weeknights without chaos?

Also, why should pro-lrt studies should never be challenged or questioned while studies stating that conversion on Sheppard would be more expensive is constantly undermined on this board?

An LRT extension west of Yonge? Where would you put it between Yonge and Bathurst? The avenue is too narrow and you'd have to bury it too. Connecting Yonge to Spadina makes so much more sense.

As for east of Don Mills, what's the rush and that obsession with building LRT there when most people there don't want it. Why not build BRT and use the billion to elevate Eglinton East or build the Waterfront LRT instead going through City Place and Fort York along with Queen's Quay East?

 

[gweed123]

You know, I think that this is what is actually going to happen, despite the last time Metrolinx and the City of Toronto / TTC got together to sign agreements for the four lines. Maybe Sheppard East will remain LRT (maybe), but serious questions should be addressed about building Finch West as an LRT, with a dedicated carhouse, if it is going to remain the only standard gauge LRT line in the northwest quadrant of the city. Even if it gets extended east to Yonge Street in a second phase, it worries me that we will end up with, like the trolley buses, a standard gauge system that is fragmented and costlier to maintain as a result.

That's a good point. You have to really wonder what Metrolinx is planning when the construction start time for Sheppard falls back to somewhere around 2017. I know there was the whole kerfuffle at City Hall, but the LRT was literally under construction before all of that happened. 5 years is a heck of a long time to boot a project like that back up again. It will take Ottawa less time to actually build their LRT (which includes a tunnel) than it well to get the Sheppard East LRT started up again. That strikes me as pretty odd.

And just think, between now and the construction start, we're going to go through: at least 1 federal election, at least 2 provincial elections (possibly more if it's perpetual minority governments), and at 1 municipal election (plus a possible by-election) before shovels ever hit the ground on Sheppard. That's a lot of uncertainty.

I would venture to say that the only line that is a given at this point is Eglinton, and even the eastern portion of that is subject to change. The SRT could be replaced either with the current plan or with a subway, the Sheppard East LRT could be replaced either with a subway or with a BRT (or with nothing), and the Finch West LRT could be replaced with a BRT (or with nothing).

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the transit plan for Toronto 2 years from now looks very little like the transit plan of today.

 

[BurlOak]

That defies logic. There is a serious underestimating of the cost to build bridges to carry full sized metro and elevated stations that are 150m long, and a serious over estimation of the effort to convert an existing tunnel and existing station boxes to LRT from subway required to say that an LRT project which involves no additional elevated or tunneled structure compared to the alternative is more expensive due to tunnel conversion. The existing tunnel is 5.5km long and you are talking about 9km of new full size metro. For that to be true elevated full size metro and large capacity stations would need to be less than 50% more than surface LRT with concrete pad stations to be believable. I can't believe that for only 50% more per kilometer we could have elevated full size metro compared to surface LRT.

First off, I do not think that 150m stations are needed - they do not exist on the existing part of the Sheppard Subway. I think 90 or 100m stations are enough.

I have no idea what the cost of conversion to LRT would be, so I just assumed the numbers quoted were accurate. It does sound like a lot of work to lower platforms, extend stairs and escalators, change power for tracks, etc.

A roadway bridge costs about $5k per square metre of deck area - maybe twice as much for small structures with no economies of scale, or for large complex structures (i.e. over deep valley). Assuming the LRT would 8m wide, this would be $40M/km for the elevated structure. I understand stations on the Canada Line in Vancouver cost about $25M, but they were only 40m long, so assume another $50M for stations, and there is one station per kilometre. And at-grade LRT costs about $60M. Thus, elevated LRT costs about $150M. This is also reasonable when compared to the $130M/km for the Evergreen Line in Vancouver. I think we had some discussion about this on another thread and I think it included trains (and storage yard too?).

 

[Rainforest]

You know, I think that this is what is actually going to happen, despite the last time Metrolinx and the City of Toronto / TTC got together to sign agreements for the four lines. Maybe Sheppard East will remain LRT (maybe), but serious questions should be addressed about building Finch West as an LRT, with a dedicated carhouse, if it is going to remain the only standard gauge LRT line in the northwest quadrant of the city. Even if it gets extended east to Yonge Street in a second phase, it worries me that we will end up with, like the trolley buses, a standard gauge system that is fragmented and costlier to maintain as a result.

I would think that Finch West LRT is more useful than Sheppard East. Finch West will be much better connected to subways (at Keele and at Yonge), so the majority of Finch West residents will be with in a 15-20 min ride from one of subway stations.

Connection of Finch LRT to the rest of LRT network will depend on the city's desire to develop such network. But potentially there are multiple possibilities for connection: Jane LRT; Kipling LRT; extension of both Eglinton and Finch to the airport. Finch East, if build, can be connected in a number of ways as well.

 

[11th]

Connection of Finch LRT to the rest of LRT network will depend on the city's desire to develop such network. But potentially there are multiple possibilities for connection: Jane LRT; Kipling LRT; extension of both Eglinton and Finch to the airport. Finch East, if build, can be connected in a number of ways as well.

We all know how well TTC executes grand plans such as developing a network from scratch. Best option would be to build Finch West with in-median ROW for buses. They can put in the tracks later when the need arises.

 

[M II A II R II K]

A Finch route doesn't preclude it being extended on Finch Av. E.