The question is can Bombardier produce 600 cars by 2020?
It has been stated for the last 18-24 months at TTC commissioner meeting, Thunder Bay will be producing only 26 cars a year. This was before TC surface.
2 cars in 2010, 22 cars in 2011. That leaves 180 cars. At 26 per year, the order will be completed in 7 years or late 2018.
If Sheppard line is to be on line in 2012, where are the cars for it considering a different design will be require from the current tender and will be one of the FLEXITY in operation in the world now.
This means 2 prototypes for each type are need for 2010 now.
Doing the math using the 26 per year, it will take 23 years to complete the full order or 2033. This will put TC 13 years behind schedule for all the new TC lines as well other lines being looked at now.
To complete the full order by 2020, Bombardier will have to produce 60 cars a year.
It is possible that TTC could split the order. If so, you will see the other bidders jump on the band wagon as they will not have to deal with the current TTC system and can use their standard model for TC that is in service world wide.
At the same time, where does Hamilton and Mississauga LRT's fit into these numbers?
Hamilton will be up and ready to run around 2015, but unknown date for Mississauga at this time as no decision is going to be made until the fall 2009 for Hurontario line.
The shovels would not get into the ground until 2011 or 12 at the current rate. Unless the line is open in sections, you are looking at least 2017 or later. Opening it in phases is the way to go starting at Port Credit going north as this is where the ridership is now. A tunnel will have to be built in Brampton and this will take time if it is a cut and fill method.
I still love to see a plant in the Portlands where the new LRT's roll off the line onto TTC system and requires no shipping cost.
Regardless if Bombardier gets the contract, they will not meet the cries of 50%-75% Canadian content given the fact that they are only putting 40% in the new RedRocket now and most of that is labour.
The question then goes back to why should a company setup shop in Canada when the shop will see about 10 years of service since there is a small market in Canada for LRT's in the first place? If they do, the cost of building that shop is built into the contract price.
