Lets put it this way. Between Metrolinx order, TTC order plus addition order, that 400 give or take cars to be built by 2021, not including Edmonton order. Forgot the number of cars that were plan for the SRT conversion that is now scrap and could go to the 2 Eglinton expansion.
If you removed Mississauga order and delay Hamilton order, you are still over 300 cars. Mississauga needs to be a P3 tender. If not, then it has to be added back in and this line will not go into service in 2022 as plan.
Math said you need to build 75 cars a year to meet full delivery for 300+ cars by 2021. If you do the math for all the order to be completed by 2022, you are over 80 cars a year.
This year, TTC was to have 56 cars and don't see that. If BBD did 4 cars a month as claim, that 36 cars this year and 48 per year. If they did 1 a week, that 50-52 if no holidays allow for.
Doing 48 cars a year is a far cry of the 75-80 that is needed. Based on 48 cars a year, the last car will not be built until late 2024 or early 2025, putting Hamilton and Edmonton years late getting cars for their system.
It also means, the City of Toronto has no hope of seeing the 2 Eglinton expansion happening until late 2025-28 depending on the number of cars needed for those extension, not the plan 2022 time frame.
Will Finch have cars for 2021 to start operation or be delay??
It makes some different to TTC as to when the Crosstown Line open since they still will continue to run buses like they do today, but will the buses last that long as well having to be rebuilt like the TTC current Streetcar Fleet? Is Metrolinx going to cover the extra cost keeping buses on the road until the Crosstown Line comes on line since its their project??
TTC is planning retiring a large number of buses when it does and prefer not to rebuild or buy buses to cover the delay. It also prevents TTC from beefing up service as plan as well.
Based on the 56 cars this year for TTC, looks like 53 with what TTC has in service and getting 36 cars.
