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TTC: Flexity Streetcars Testing & Delivery (Bombardier)

Throw out 4405 (first one after strike) and 4411 and then do a simple linear regression on that data. There is no downward trend.

The strike ended September 12th, 2014. 4404 was delivered November 11, 2014. I did toss (4404) because it was the first one after the strike. Can't toss 4405 for the same reason!

But I agree, we need another delivery or two to see if there's any significant improvement, or if 4411 is just an aberration.

4411 is the first delivery with significant improvement. One point does not a trend make. Let's see how 4412 and 4413 stack up before declaring victory over Bombardier's ridiculous tardiness. They are not yet off the hook.
Everything I've heard indicates the trend will hold; I'm not sure if they'll get it down to 7 days yet; but no indication they won't be able to hold at 21 days or better.

So there's one short of making the Spadina route consist of entirely new streetcars.
Yes. but not really.

Spadina requires 12 Flexities for morning peak. But with 17% spares, they'd need 14 vehicles.

Also they are keeping 2 on 509, so they'd need 17 vehicles.

The 3rd catch is that although Spadina only requires 15 CLRVs for AM peak, it needs 21 for mid-day and afternoon peak. So presumably that means 17 Flexities out during those period, plus 2 on 509 for 19, and 4 spares.

So 23 really needed for full conversion. Sometime in late January if they can start delivering every 7 days. Or 21 if they drop the ones on 509 ... and mid-January.
 
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A billion-dollar question (for several municipalities!):

How will Flexity Outlook delays affect manufacture of Flexity Freedoms for the other LRTs?

It is claimed 80-90% of the parts are interchangeable.
 
So there's one short of making the Spadina route consist of entirely new streetcars.

Wellllll sort of.

I mean yes purely from a number perspective.

But not all streetcars operate at the same time. For example of the 224 streetcars in the current network, only about 80% or 180 operate at one time. The others are undergoing maintenance, used for training, being cleaned, etc.

So to truly have 11 streetcars operating at one time on the Spadina route, we really need about 14.
 
So to truly have 11 streetcars operating at one time on the Spadina route, we really need about 14.
I'm sticking to 23.

Not sure where you get 224 from. There were 195 CLRVs and 52 ALRVs for the longest time. Now, some have been disposed of, but we aren't down to 224. The August 7 roster said 249 (191 CLRVs, 50 ALRVs, and 8 Flexities) ... so 251 minus any more disposals. Though I don't now where you get 180 from either ... normally over 200 at peak.
 
So long as this doesn't happen with the Transit City lines, because then the construction will be complete and there'll be no service.
 
So long as this doesn't happen with the Transit City lines, because then the construction will be complete and there'll be no service.
The first 14 of the Metrolinx cars are going to Waterloo, and will have to be in operation in about 2 years time. That should get the bugs out of the process.

It's six years until Eglinton and Finch start operation according to the latest dates from TTC. Those cars will have gained from all the lessons learned on the TTC cars and Waterloo cars. If they'd proceeded with the schedule when they ordered the cars (Sheppard in early 2014, Finch in 2019, SRT and Eglinton in 2020) then I can see that the car delivery would have been an issue - especially for Sheppard. But now we are looking at 2021 for Eglinton and Finch, 2024 for Sheppard, and any extra SRT cars presumably going to Mississauga and/or Hamilton sometime in the 2020s.
 
I'm sticking to 23.

Not sure where you get 224 from. There were 195 CLRVs and 52 ALRVs for the longest time. Now, some have been disposed of, but we aren't down to 224. The August 7 roster said 249 (191 CLRVs, 50 ALRVs, and 8 Flexities) ... so 251 minus any more disposals. Though I don't now where you get 180 from either ... normally over 200 at peak.
So I wonder if they're modulating the number of streetcars as the mean capacity per streetcar increases. The CLRV's have a crush load of 132 versus a full load for a new Flexity of 251. So if peak is scheduled for 23 CLRV's, the same load could be serviced with only 12 Flexities. From what I understand they backed off replacing them on an exact capacity basis, but we definitely won't need 23 flexities for Spadina, that would be hilarious.

One thought, now that they have the new streetcars is will they finally remove some of the ridiculous stop spacings. It's now only 2-3 streetcar lengths between the platform at Sussex ave and the northbound stop on Harbord.
 
So I wonder if they're modulating the number of streetcars as the mean capacity per streetcar increases. The CLRV's have a crush load of 132 versus a full load for a new Flexity of 251. So if peak is scheduled for 23 CLRV's, the same load could be serviced with only 12 Flexities. From what I understand they backed off replacing them on an exact capacity basis, but we definitely won't need 23 flexities for Spadina, that would be hilarious.

One thought, now that they have the new streetcars is will they finally remove some of the ridiculous stop spacings. It's now only 2-3 streetcar lengths between the platform at Sussex ave and the northbound stop on Harbord.

I have heard multiple people say that Spadina will be 13 LFLRVs--think Steve Munro had asked Brad Ross and posted it, or something like that. If so, then once 4411 is in service we will have 10 LFLRVs usable (excluding 4401/02); however, in addition to keeping spares as other posters have mentioned, keep in mind they will use some for training, and 1 or 2 are usually running on 509. Realistically I don't see Spadina being fully converted until we have at least 17 in service, which provides for 2 on 509 and 2 for training/as spares. So, 4418 is my estimate.
 
So I wonder if they're modulating the number of streetcars as the mean capacity per streetcar increases. The CLRV's have a crush load of 132 versus a full load for a new Flexity of 251. So if peak is scheduled for 23 CLRV's, the same load could be serviced with only 12 Flexities. From what I understand they backed off replacing them on an exact capacity basis, but we definitely won't need 23 flexities for Spadina, that would be hilarious.
they don't do anything close to crush loads for planning. And you seldom see crush loads out there, unless everyone loads at one station after an event or something - people just won't stand that close together.

When a stretcar is operating at crush load - or even anything above peak - it takes forever to load and unload, because the doors open, and the people trying to get out, can't get to the door; first you unload people, and the people wanting out get out, and then you reload people; and then some idiot is standing on the steps and the door doesn't close ... Needless to say, it doesn't work.

The peak loads TTC uses are published at http://www.ttc.ca/PDF/Transit_Planning/Crowding_Standards_2015.pdf - so 74 for a CLRV, 108 for a ALRV, and 130 for a Flexity. I recall on a particularly crowded CLRV once, when I was standing at the top of the steps, and leaning backwards over the stairs, I got the chance to do a head count - and counted 80 people in the car. I have no idea how you'd fit 132 in.

There will be some changes in the number of cars out there once they change over. Though not as much as you'd think, as they are running overcapacity on most routes in AM peak already. For example, the 15 CLRVs out there on 510 during AM peak becaome 12 Flexities.

You can also see this in the total number, where we are replacing 196 CLRV and 52 ALRVS with only 204 Flexities.

Though as times has passed and streetcar ridership has grown 33% since they ordered the Flexities in 2009 (and 53% since they decided to order them in 2006 based on 2005 ridership), they've also decided to keeping 30 ALRVs.
 

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