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Trinity-Spadina by-election

Yeah. 900 is an extraordinarily high number which makes me suspicious. I mean what would the motive be? Why would say, the Vaughan campaign risk criminal charges when they're almost certainly going to win anyway?
 
Over 7,000 show up for advance polls in Trinity-Spadina -- hopefully there will be good turnout on Monday as well, although it really was an odd day to choose

http://metronews.ca/news/toronto/10...ct-over-10000-voters-for-toronto-byelections/

More than 10,000 Toronto citizens won’t have to worry about scrambling to do their democratic duty in between World Pride and Canada Day celebrations in the city in the next week.

They’ve already voted and are among the more than 16,000 Canadians who took advantage of advance polls last weekend for four federal byelections on June 30, in the midst of what is a long holiday weekend for many people.

Elections Canada released the turnout numbers for the advance polls on Tuesday, showing that 7,172 people voted in Trinity-Spadina and 3,822 people voted in Scarborough-Agincourt over the three days of polling last Friday, Saturday and Monday.

In Trinity-Spadina, the advance-voter turnout is close to the number who voted ahead of time during the last general election in 2011, when voter participation rates are usually much higher than in byelections. It’s about 2,000 more than the number of advance voters in last fall’s byelection in Toronto Centre, too.

It may be a sign of interest in the high-profile campaign to fill the seat vacated by former NDP MP Olivia Chow when she decided to seek the mayor’s job in Toronto.

But equally likely, the healthy turnout at the advance polls is also believed to be a result of concerted efforts by political parties to deal with the awkward timing of the byelections, which are taking place in the immediate shadow of the Ontario provincial election on June 12.

“Stephen Harper doesn’t want you to vote” has been a constant refrain for the Liberal campaign in Trinity-Spadina, where former councillor Adam Vaughan is the candidate.

The same has been true for the NDP campaign, where candidate Joe Cressy has also been accusing the prime minister of timing the vote to ensure a minimum of participation. “He’s hoping that our community won’t get out to the polls to have its voice heard,” Cressy said while trying to drum up the advance vote.

Green Party candidate Camille Labchuk, in a bid to get voters out to advance polls, also cited Harper’s choice of timing.

As one of the opposition party workers in Trinity-Spadina said on Tuesday: “Three parties used Stephen Harper to motivate voters to the advance polls in this riding, and it’s looking like it worked.”

Conservative officials did not reply to inquiries about what they had done to encourage advance voting last weekend. Nor has Conservative candidate Ben Sharma been participating in this week’s all-candidate debates in the riding.

On Friday, Saturday and Monday, Liberal campaign officials in the two Toronto ridings ceased all canvassing efforts and concentrated entirely on getting out the vote to the advance polls — treating the days as full-fledged election days.

School buses were laid on in Trinity-Spadina to ferry seniors to polling locations, while Scarborough-Agincourt Liberals organized car pools for voters who needed rides.

Lineups were reported at many advance polling locations in the two ridings as well.

In addition to advance polls, people have also been able to cast votes in these byelections simply by showing up at the riding returning office and casting a special ballot.

These special ballots were not among those counted as advance votes by Elections Canada in its release of numbers on Tuesday, but campaign officials report that in Trinity-Spadina, as many as 1,300 people have voted this way.
Click to expand...
 
Great number crunching KoK on the neighborhood breakdown

The Liberal numbers are very consistent from 40 to 50% of the vote across the riding. While the NDP is competitive in some of the older community but falls off huge at the condo area. Literally fighting for second with the PC (25% a piece)

Does this mean the new Spadina-FY riding be a PC as the second place party and NDP falling down to third. That would be brutal for them

As for sign damage, it makes no sense for the Vaughan team to do it. They have all the momentum. If something like that is done is usually done from a desperate campaign
 
Thanks StatGeek.

I was actually struck more by Marchese's showing in the older, more established community than in the condos. This was a total repudiation.

Here are some 2011 comparisons to think about. In 2011, Marchese received 983 votes (out of 2,197, 44.7%) in the Annex west of Spadina, this time Marchese received 722 (out of 2,449, 29.5%). In Seaton Village, his vote dropped from 999 (out of 1,894, 52.7%) to 793 (out of 2,248, 35.3%).

All of this is available (except for the most recent 2014 provincial) from this website:

http://election-atlas.ca/fed/

Here's a good assessment of the riding, which includes federal results (and where you can see that the NDP got about half its vote share this time from the 2011 orange wave in a lot of areas):

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/06/june-30-federal-by-election-profiles_24.html
 
Thanks for the numbers KoK.

Wow I'm stunned by how low the NDP is along the waterfront condo corridor. Especially considering their staunch anti-jets position.

I imagine much of the Conservative support in the condo corridor comes from younger suburban transplants who work in the financial and business sectors downtown.

I've noticed the new batch of Adam Vaughan signs have a "Team Trudeau" topper on them. It's an odd strategy putting him front and centre in the campaign. I imagine many Liberal supporters are voting for Adam and not Justin. And it will make it more difficult to poach NDPers who supported Vaughan at the municipal level when the Liberal leader's face is emblazoned on all the campaign material.
 
mjl08 said:
I've noticed the new batch of Adam Vaughan signs have a "Team Trudeau" topper on them. It's an odd strategy putting him front and centre in the campaign. I imagine many Liberal supporters are voting for Adam and not Justin. And it will make it more difficult to poach NDPers who supported Vaughan at the municipal level when the Liberal leader's face is emblazoned on all the campaign material.
Click to expand...

Makes perfect sense to me - they are clearly less worried about poaching NDPers than increasing recognition of JT in the riding. Pure groundwork for next year by coatailing on AV's personal popularity.

AoD
 
mjl08 said:
Wow I'm stunned by how low the NDP is along the waterfront condo corridor. Especially considering their staunch anti-jets position.

I imagine much of the Conservative support in the condo corridor comes from younger suburban transplants who work in the financial and business sectors downtown.
Click to expand...

I'm stunned too. I know a lot of people in the area, and not one of them claimed to vote Conservative. Obviously, I know the wrong people :)

I have heard from a lot of those "transplants" that they have no particular issues with the airport, so I don't see that as having been much of an election issue. That could well be different in the municipal elections, though.
 
Another thing is that the condo dwellers are often from suburbia and bring their voting habits with them. If you're from Mississauga, it's Liberal vs. PC.
 
And the most marked "condo conservative" nodes of all actually happen to be some of the oldest: Harbour Square and the like...
 
adma said:
And the most marked "condo conservative" nodes of all actually happen to be some of the oldest: Harbour Square and the like...
Click to expand...

You see them walking their Yorkies at Harbour Square Park. A lot of old-timers and widows who downsized from their Rosedale and Lawrence Park manors. Manulife Centre is similar.
 
King of Kensington said:
The Cressy campaign is claiming that Vaughan used to oppose the Port Authority but now supports it.
Click to expand...

Cressy is drawing desperate at straws now. That being said, I'm sure it will be much easier for the newly elected MP to fly porter to Ottawa than chugging up to Pearson. The propeller plans and reduce commute is actually much more environmentally friendly than the pearson jets, but no one cares about the environment when self-interests are involved.

Opposing keystone is disingenuous and unrealistic. The oil will flow one way or another, through trains, trucks. Pipeline is the most efficient, safe method. They should focus on how to ensure revenues are allocated to long-term social good and oversee sustainable practices. But I guess it's a lot 'sexier' to oppose an oil pipeline.
 
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Anybody watch the Rogers TV debate with Goldhawk. The Conservative dude didn't even bother to show. Vaughan, Cressy and Labchuk was there.

The best Cressy and Vaughan exhange took place over corporate taxes. Cressy says the "Unlike the Liberals, the NDP will raise taxes on corporations", Vaghan replied by saying "You should have told your scarborough agincourt NDP candidate who was with Goldhawk doing their debate took a different position" Cressy just replied with "It's our official party platform"
 
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