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Trinity-Spadina by-election

newearthling said:
I think the only province where the tories could win would be AB. Everywhere else will either be Lib or NDP. If they formed a coalition we would be free of the CON menace!
Anyway, we were all predicting Vaughan's win as soon as he registered. I would like to see how well the Greens did. I never saw one CON sign up around town, and I hope the Greens beat them.
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You might be right. The Conservatives only have a chance in those backwards provinces that think that jobs and the economy are important. The more enlightened progressive provinces realize that charisma (and hair) are the most important attributes for a party and leader.
 
BurlOak said:
You might be right. The Conservatives only have a chance in those backwards provinces that think that jobs and the economy are important. The more enlightened progressive provinces realize that charisma (and hair) are the most important attributes for a party and leader.
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Sarcasm has to be done really well to succeed on an anonymous internet forum. Otherwise, it just comes off as bitterness.

There is no economy without the ecology that supports it. The Harper CONS are really scorched earth reformers who cow-tow to the oil industry. There is nothing "conservative" about a party that removed protected status of 95% of Canada's water (the only ones still protected are in CON ridings.) They have fired the scientists and burned their research. We are entering a time of huge global change unprepared because the CONS want to deny the change that is coming. Germany is so far ahead of us in terms of building an alternative energy grid, and their economy is doing pretty well considering things in Europe. We need vision now, and an ability to bring people on board. The CONS have neither.

I don't really believe they are true conservatives in the style of Joe Clark. Of course jobs, the economy and bringing down the debt are important. But the CONS as they exist now have given us lots of debt and sold Canada out. Harper said that we wouldn't recognize Canada when he was finished with it, and he was right.
 
For those curious:
NDP-New Democratic Party Joe Cressy 11,823 34.3 %
Green Party Camille Labchuk 1,919 5.6 %
Conservative Benjamin Sharma 2,000 5.8 %
Liberal Adam Vaughan 18,434 53.4 %

30% turnout.
 
2000 number is kind of hilariously even. It seems like the initial Forum numbers were spot on with Vaughan getting mid 50s while Cressy got the later mid-30s number. The Conservative number dropped. The Green does what Green normally does they poll higher normally than they normally get.

So I guessing the Ford TrinSpa support isn't really that important afterall lol. The conservatives will never win this riding but normally get around the 15 area. For them to drop to 5% and being equal to the Green is a bit of an untold story. There are three possible reason for this
1- Conservative brand is in big trouble. Especially with their continued connection with Ford.
2- Conservatives hate Vaughan so much that they voted for Cressy (which makes the NDP even in more trouble than we thought)
3- Conservatives love Canada so much that they spend Canada day away from the country lol.

The oddest most absurd spin I have heard to the NDP downfall (and more Liberal gains) is how this is bad news for Chow. I know Ford buttkisser Towhey is repeating that. Reality is actually the oppostie that Chow was such a strong individual that she won easily and now that she's not on the ticket the NDP doesn't have nearly the appeal. Again logically the Liberal/NDP support will more than likely vote for Chow than former PC member Tory and wackjob Ford.

I heard some good things from Labchuk and how she campaigned. Maybe she will try to take Vaughan old council seat. I think it would look too awkward for Cressy to try it. It seems too much like "Oh well I will just go for this for the time being"
 
Trinity-Spadina was Chow's riding for a long time. If Vaughan hadn't put his hat in the ring, Cressy would have done better and probably won. But Vaughan has tons of name/face recognition in the riding, whereas Cressy has little. I don't think conclusions about party politics can be based on this riding's by-election. It's a case of a star candidate winning because of who he is, and because he brought a lot of traditional NDP supporters with him.

The PCs had pretty abysmal results the last federal election too, and they're not going to do any better without a decent candidate. I don't think Sharma did much, if any, campaigning. Cressy and Vaughan were all over the place, doing the meet and greets, being visible.
 
PinkLucy said:
Trinity-Spadina was Chow's riding for a long time. If Vaughan hadn't put his hat in the ring, Cressy would have done better and probably won. But Vaughan has tons of name/face recognition in the riding, whereas Cressy has little. I don't think conclusions about party politics can be based on this riding's by-election. It's a case of a star candidate winning because of who he is, and because he brought a lot of traditional NDP supporters with him.

The PCs had pretty abysmal results the last federal election too, and they're not going to do any better without a decent candidate. I don't think Sharma did much, if any, campaigning. Cressy and Vaughan were all over the place, doing the meet and greets, being visible.
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I think Adam would have had a more difficult time if Jack Layton was still around. Trudeau spent a lot of time campaigning in Trinity Spadina, and he was pretty popular in the riding himself.

The fact that Han Dong, a no-name, won the provincial election over Marchese who was a big name in the riding is enough proof that it wasn't just Vaughan's name that helped him win. The Liberals are stronger than ever in Trinity Spadina, and it has a lot more to do with population growth than the names on the ballot.

The Liberals have been increasing their numbers every election in Trinity Spadina, coming pretty close to winning it in the last Provincial election. They have consistently won in the the areas seeing condo growth. With a 2000 vote difference in 2011, it should've been no surprise that the Liberals were capable of taking the riding this time around. The growth has benefited the Liberals more than any party.
 
Lots of things would be different if Jack Layton were still around. For starters, Vaughan would be in all likelihood be running NDP (and not in Chow's riding).
 
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StatGeek said:
2000 number is kind of hilariously even. It seems like the initial Forum numbers were spot on with Vaughan getting mid 50s while Cressy got the later mid-30s number. The Conservative number dropped. The Green does what Green normally does they poll higher normally than they normally get.

So I guessing the Ford TrinSpa support isn't really that important afterall lol. The conservatives will never win this riding but normally get around the 15 area. For them to drop to 5% and being equal to the Green is a bit of an untold story. There are three possible reason for this
1- Conservative brand is in big trouble. Especially with their continued connection with Ford.
2- Conservatives hate Vaughan so much that they voted for Cressy (which makes the NDP even in more trouble than we thought)
3- Conservatives love Canada so much that they spend Canada day away from the country lol.
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I think Conservatives just sat this one out, like they did in the Danforth and TC by-elections. It isn't going to change the composition of Parliament and they had no chance.

The oddest most absurd spin I have heard to the NDP downfall (and more Liberal gains) is how this is bad news for Chow. I know Ford buttkisser Towhey is repeating that. Reality is actually the oppostie that Chow was such a strong individual that she won easily and now that she's not on the ticket the NDP doesn't have nearly the appeal. Again logically the Liberal/NDP support will more than likely vote for Chow than former PC member Tory and wackjob Ford.
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Agree. OC campaign is basically a Liberal-NDP alliance, like the Miller coalition.

I heard some good things from Labchuk and how she campaigned. Maybe she will try to take Vaughan old council seat. I think it would look too awkward for Cressy to try it. It seems too much like "Oh well I will just go for this for the time being"
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OTOH 34% is enough to win an open seat. I found Cressy to be extraordinarily gracious in defeat (unlike Mulcair who sounded like a total prick).

Camille Labchuk could run as well. Or Tim Grant, who I think would make a great councillor.
 
I voted for Vaughn in the bi-election because I like him and am not comfortable voting NDP. I am not ready to vote for a Justin Trudeau government though. I am just one voter - but I guess I write this to caution people from reading too much in to this bi-election.
 
I think it's unlikely Cressy runs for Vaughan's vacated seat. While the individual poll results have not been published yet, if it follows the pattern of NDP support in last month's provincial election, Cressy's core support likely came from Christie Pits, Harbord Village and Little Italy - all of which are in Mike Layton's Ward 19, not the vacant Ward 20 seat.

I'm amazed that considering the high profile nature of Ward 20 that more well-known names have not thrown their hat in the ring.
 
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mjl08 said:
I think it's unlikely Cressy runs for Vaughan's vacated seat. While the individual poll results have not been published yet, if it follows the pattern of NDP support in last month's provincial election, Cressy's core support likely came from Christie Pits, Harbord Village and Little Italy - all of which are in Mike Layton's Ward 19, not the vacant Ward 20 seat.
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That may very well be the case (though Harbord Village is in ward 20). Though it would be interesting to see the extent to which Vaughan/Dong and Cressy/Marchese votes matched up, with somewhat different factors at work, like ethnicity (two anglo males federally; an Italian Canadian New Democrat vs. a Chinese Canadian Liberal provincially; Marchese being kind of old and tired vs. Cressy being quite young and energetic etc.)

I'm amazed that considering the high profile nature of Ward 20 that more well-known names have not thrown their hat in the ring.
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Me too!
 
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