Transit City Plan

[andrewpmk]

Like ohmigod, building subways totally caused another 2 million people to suddenly materialize!! Just like with our original Spadina extension and the Sheppard stubway!!

Oh, right.

The GTA is growing by 100,000 people a year. That's 2 million in 20 years.

Yes, I know that Singapore is a city state unlike Toronto meaning that people cannot easily commute to Malaysia the way people commute from Toronto to the 905, so I don't expect Toronto to grow nearly as much as Singapore because the 905 will absorb a lot of this population growth (though the greenbelt will increase the share Toronto gets I think). Nevertheless I think people seriously underestimate how big and dense this city has become already. Toronto is not low density suburbia and most of the population lives in apartments now.

Today it took over 80 minutes to go eastbound on the 401 from 410 to 404 in afternoon rush hour (source: CP24). The traffic in Toronto is absolutely insane. I do not believe for a second that a handful of low capacity tram lines that are only marginally faster than the bus routes they replace, and much slower than subways, will do anything about Toronto's crazy traffic problems. Eglinton line with no surface light rail sections from the airport (where huge numbers of people work) to Scarborough Centre will provide an alternative to driving in crazy traffic on the 401 and Eglinton for many people.

 

[Paleo]

Today it took over 80 minutes to go eastbound on the 401 from 410 to 404 in afternoon rush hour (source: CP24). The traffic in Toronto is absolutely insane. I do not believe for a second that a handful of low capacity tram lines that are only marginally faster than the bus routes they replace, and much slower than subways, will do anything about Toronto's crazy traffic problems. Eglinton line with no surface light rail sections from the airport (where huge numbers of people work) to Scarborough Centre will provide an alternative to driving in crazy traffic on the 401 and Eglinton for many people.

Eglinton or Sheppard subway won't fix that traffic but keep repeating it here and elsewhere.

 

[andrewpmk]

Doing NOTHING will only make traffic even worse. Soon enough it will take 2 hours to get from 401/410 to 401/404 in rush hour and the GTA economy will totally grind to a halt.

A subway line going from Scarborough Centre to Pearson Airport in about an hour and a line from Downsview to STC in 30 minutes will obviously not decongest the highways (because with no traffic it is much faster by 401, so the roads have to be congested to some extent for the subway to be time competitive or the roads must have tolls) but at least far fewer people will be *forced* to drive on the 401 due to lack of reasonable alternatives other than slow overcrowded TTC buses. My guess is that the roads will still be congested, but slightly less than they are now.

Building slow light rail lines with a fraction of the capacity of subways is only marginally better than doing nothing. Light rail will only be marginally faster than the existing bus services and probably even slower than driving on the 401 in rush hour. Car drivers will not use it.

 

[nfitz]

Road tolls would sort this quickly. Say 20¢/km on the 401 during peak periods. Then all of a sudden, the traffic would flow ...

 

[andrewpmk]

...and if we do that, the light rail lines will be overflowing despite being outrageously slow because people cannot afford to drive on the 401 anymore. Then we will be forced to dig them up and replace them with subways the day after they open. Also Sheppard Avenue, Finch Avenue, York Mills Road etc. will become like Highway 7 today (congested all the time 7 days a week).

But if there aren't road tolls, I suspect that the light rail lines will not attract all that many car drivers out of their cars, because they are too slow.

 

[Northern Magus]

The GTA is growing by 100,000 people a year. That's 2 million in 20 years.

Yes, I know that Singapore is a city state unlike Toronto meaning that people cannot easily commute to Malaysia the way people commute from Toronto to the 905, so I don't expect Toronto to grow nearly as much as Singapore because the 905 will absorb a lot of this population growth (though the greenbelt will increase the share Toronto gets I think). Nevertheless I think people seriously underestimate how big and dense this city has become already. Toronto is not low density suburbia and most of the population lives in apartments now.

Today it took over 80 minutes to go eastbound on the 401 from 410 to 404 in afternoon rush hour (source: CP24). The traffic in Toronto is absolutely insane. I do not believe for a second that a handful of low capacity tram lines that are only marginally faster than the bus routes they replace, and much slower than subways, will do anything about Toronto's crazy traffic problems. Eglinton line with no surface light rail sections from the airport (where huge numbers of people work) to Scarborough Centre will provide an alternative to driving in crazy traffic on the 401 and Eglinton for many people.

Your thesis is myopic and tendentious, and its central argument is unsound. If anything, it appears to support an expanded GO system throughout the GTA.

Not subways.

But by all means, believe whatever you want.

 

[nfitz]

...and if we do that, the light rail lines will be overflowing despite being outrageously slow because people cannot afford to drive on the 401 anymore. Then we will be forced to dig them up and replace them with subways the day after they open. Also Sheppard Avenue, Finch Avenue, York Mills Road etc. will become like Highway 7 today (congested all the time 7 days a week).

But if there aren't road tolls, I suspect that the light rail lines will not attract all that many car drivers out of their cars, because they are too slow.

No ... many people will just not choose to drive excess distances on the 401. Some will move to side streets. Some will move closer to work. Some will find jobs closer to home. And some will use transit.

The LRT lines, or even the Sheppard subway isn't going to draw away huge amounts of 401 drivers, even if they tolled it infinitely high. A better GO system might ...

 

[andrewpmk]

GO trains do not serve North York Centre. They are useless for east west trips north of the city that do not go through downtown Toronto.

 

[Palma]

The GTA is growing by 100,000 people a year. That's 2 million in 20 years.

Y.

Wrong. The most recent Census Canada figures showed that population for Toronto grew less than 5% over 5 years. The figure was around 105,000. This would mean in 20 years at the same pace it would be an increase of less than 500,000. So its no where near 100,000 people per year. The people spreading those numbers are developers to get those condos built to urgently house all these newcomers/ i never did believe their figures and this proves it.

 

[Dandy Horse]

I dont understand the all or nothing attitude put out by the 'subways or bust' camp. Cant you see that transit improvements are aimed towards giving transit riders a better way? yes of course increased ridership will happen from improvements, but increased ridership is not the entire goal of the exercise. the goal is to give reliable, safe and comfortable transit to the already faithful transit users who are currently not experiencing that (like people in the ghetto on Finch riding the Finch bus), because so many of them are using the service.
we really have to leave the 401 out of this. And seriously, if a 2-5 dollar tax on roads is going to keep you from driving, then you probably should stop driving now, because in the next few years, gas is going to be a lot more expensive that an extra 2-5$ per trip.
Either way, we have to get shovels in the ground in a transit system that serves the most Torontonians, and we have to do it fast, because Dalton doesn't really like us, or care about us, and he's going to take away the free money if we dont snatch it fast and soon.

also if you really wanted to replace 401 with rail theres a gigantic rail right of way at the top of the city (at yonge its just north of steeles) that goes from bramalea GO all the way past Mcowan into Ajax. however Im pretty sure people on the 401 wouldn't ride on a train, especially because most of them already drove for 40 minutes in each direction just to get onto the 401.

 

[nfitz]

Wrong. The most recent statistic canada figures showed that population for Toronto grew less than 5% over 5 years. I think the figure was less than 150,000. This would mean in 20 years at the same pace it would be an increase of less than 600,000

He said GTA, not Toronto.

 

[EnviroTO]

Today it took over 80 minutes to go eastbound on the 401 from 410 to 404 in afternoon rush hour (source: CP24). The traffic in Toronto is absolutely insane. I do not believe for a second that a handful of low capacity tram lines that are only marginally faster than the bus routes they replace, and much slower than subways, will do anything about Toronto's crazy traffic problems. Eglinton line with no surface light rail sections from the airport (where huge numbers of people work) to Scarborough Centre will provide an alternative to driving in crazy traffic on the 401 and Eglinton for many people.

Why do people keep thinking that traffic on the 401 has anything to do with the people a Shepard subway extension would serve? Was there a noticable drop in traffic on the 401 when the Sheppard subway opened? After all Fairview Mall is a decent size and there are many high rises in the area. Or does this belief state that Fairview isn't significant and really Scarborough Centre is were everyone is going. Are a huge number of people living at Scarborough Centre and working at Terminal 1? I have taken the bus to the airport corporate centre and the bus gets you closer to your destination than a subway ever will and walking from the bus stop to the office, exposed to the elements in that pedestrian unfriendly environment, is unlikely to lure large numbers of converts. Right now many bus routes go to Scarborough Centre... how many people leave their car at home to take that direct service? If a subway is extended to SCC people who will ride it are often going to need to take a bus to get to the same place but they won't be at their destination yet and will need to transfer to the subway which likely will not take them exactly where they are going and will need to transfer again to a bus.

The biggest issue with a Sheppard subway is that for most trips a station on the line is not the destination of the trip. Most GO transit customers take transit which has stops spaced out and arrive at an indoor connection to their work or on campus. A Sheppard subway will never deliver that because Sheppard isn't a dense enough employment corridor and suburban offices are spread out and exposed to the elements. Additionally the incentives of avoiding $20 parking won't be there.

 

[andrewpmk]

Why do people keep thinking that traffic on the 401 has anything to do with the people a Shepard subway extension would serve? Was there a noticable drop in traffic on the 401 when the Sheppard subway opened? After all Fairview Mall is a decent size and there are many high rises in the area. Or does this belief state that Fairview isn't significant and really Scarborough Centre is were everyone is going. Are a huge number of people living at Scarborough Centre and working at Terminal 1? I have taken the bus to the airport corporate centre and the bus gets you closer to your destination than a subway ever will and walking from the bus stop to the office, exposed to the elements in that pedestrian unfriendly environment, is unlikely to lure large numbers of converts. Right now many bus routes go to Scarborough Centre... how many people leave their car at home to take that direct service? If a subway is extended to SCC people who will ride it are often going to need to take a bus to get to the same place but they won't be at their destination yet and will need to transfer to the subway which likely will not take them exactly where they are going and will need to transfer again to a bus.

The biggest issue with a Sheppard subway is that for most trips a station on the line is not the destination of the trip. Most GO transit customers take transit which has stops spaced out and arrive at an indoor connection to their work or on campus. A Sheppard subway will never deliver that because Sheppard isn't a dense enough employment corridor and suburban offices are spread out and exposed to the elements. Additionally the incentives of avoiding $20 parking won't be there.

1. A five stop subway is not going to have much of an impact on 401 traffic because it is completely useless for suburb to suburb drivers right now as almost everyone has to take several buses at either end to use the Sheppard subway right now. I notice that many people using the Sheppard subway are going downtown even though the vast majority of 401 drivers using the section of the 401 running parallel are not going downtown. I would expect a Downsview-Scarborough Centre subway to serve far more suburb to suburb traffic and far more North York Centre to suburb traffic. I would expect to see a slight drop (not enormous) drop in 401 traffic when such an extension opens, and a big increase in subway traffic. The big difference would most likely be that the subway would prevent the traffic from getting even worse than it already is.
2. I think that the main reason people would switch to using the subway is to avoid having to drive in severe traffic congestion. People who are conveniently served by the subway (e.g. work at the Airport Corporate Centre office park and live at Eglinton and Bayview) would use the subway to avoid heavy traffic. People who are less conveniently served by the subway (e.g. Islington and Dixon to Hurontario and 401) would be more likely to continue to drive in heavy traffic. Parking fees would probably only play a minor role (mostly for people working in North York Centre, Yonge/York Mills & Yonge/Eginton, if the city cuts taxes and employment growth occurs there).
3. My assumption is that buses (e.g. #7 & 35) would link a station near Eglinton/Renforth with the various office park buildings, other office parks in Mississauga such as the ones near 401/Hurontario and Meadowvale, and Square One.

 

[RichA]

Dear Dalton; After Caledonia,criticism you level at anyone is water off a duck's

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/...ty-hall-get-your-act-together-on-transit?bn=1

McGuinty is the biggest coward who ever lived.

 

[RichA]

Forget the idea of long commutes by public or private transit

1. A five stop subway is not going to have much of an impact on 401 traffic because it is completely useless for suburb to suburb drivers right now

$5.75 each way via something like GO, then a TTC charge of $3.00 each way. Over the course of a year at $17.50 per day, (plus the huge time waste and inconvenience) you are looking at $4550.00. You can drive a cheap car for about the same money and even with traffic, save time.