Last time I checked, we don't have $15 billion for LRT. It's about $8-billion (in current $) for LRT, of which about half of it is for the subway-section of the Eglinton RT line, and another $1-billion is for the SRT upgrade and grade-separated extension. The cheap Finch-like and Sheppard East-like LRT is only about $3-billion of that.
My point was that if we have money for one, we have money for the other. Be that $15 billion or $8 billion. Only the most hardened ideologue would see $8 billion only making LRT feasible, and subway too expensive.
That doesn't make sense. Extending the subway from Kennedy to Scarbough Centre (SC) station can't drastically cut commute times; at best it removes the 3 minutes or so to change trains. For those boarding at McCowan the additional walk removes any gains. For those coming from north of the 401, extending the existing line north of the 401 would save more than the 3 minutes, for less $.
You ever used McCowan station? It's a glorified Kiss n ride. I took the 134 for a decade. Always got off at McCowan just so I could get a seat. There's really very little walk in-traffic. And really, if you can walk to McCowan, it's not that much more to walk to STC.
Aside from which, why are we assuming that a subway station at STC would remain the current location? More than likely it would be in the parking lot between the theatre and McCowan.
As for the savings from Malvern, it cuts a lot more than the transfer. Aside from the transfer, which in most cases takes a lot more than 3 minutes, you'd be cutting out a few useless stops too (like Midland and Ellesmere). I think it's very realistic for the subway to travel from Kennedy to STC in 10 mins. That means a regular savings of between 7-10 for most people starting their journey by bussing to STC. Certainly, the savings for Malvernites are own slightly lower than what a LRT to MTC would provide. The trade-off being that the rest of northern and eastern Scarborough would benefit immensely too. And with the LRT now not terminating at Malvern, the originally projected time savings are debatable.
With outer 416, the real solution is GO, and regional express trains.
Well then, why'd they propose LRTs?
Will we? No one is promising subways to outer 416 ... other than the Spadina extension everyone is on board with (well I assume Ford is ...). I suppose there is Smitherman's short extension to Sherway ... but given how few people (especially outside of Mississauga) would use any of it, I can't see it swaying too many people. Much of the rest of Smitherman's plan brings subway to places that are not quite outer 416 that already have or are getting rapid transit (SC, Downsview, central Eglinton).
Rossi, Thomson and Smitherman (and maybe even Ford shortly) are committed to subway expansion. And I believe they all have plans for a BD extension to STC. So I don't understand where you get the idea that they aren't promising expansion to the outer 416. Is McCowan and Ellesmere the inner 416? Some are pledging extensions of the Yonge line. Is Yonge and Steeles the inner 416?
And if you think that a subway extension to STC would not be wildly popular in Scarborough, well, you just don't know Scarborough. The only way the popularity of this idea could be derailed is by somebody promising to build an LRT on Finch, Sheppard, Lawrence, Ellesmere and McCowan, and Markham. Otherwise, the idea that all of Scarborough is going to satisfied with an LRT on Sheppard is laughable and one on Morningside, years down the line, is laughable.