Transit City: Finch-Sheppard Corridor

[mastershake]

I agree, Sheppard should run from Downsview to STC and that is it. If I remember correctly, the East part of Sheppard has nothing along it but back yard fences, then it runs through the rouge valley and curves south towards Kingston Rd.

What I am not clear on is the intent of this sheppard-finch cross town line. Surely someone isn't going to travel from the Zoo to the Airport on something with an average speed of 25km/hour or so, GO would be much better suited for trips like this. But this LRT plan doesn't seem well suited for local (within scarborough) trips either, because there is really nothing along Sheppard east of McCowan worth travelling to.

This ridiculous LRT plan for Sheppard is one of the main reasons I do not support transfer city. It seems like LRT was chosen as the technology regardless of what the most practical solution would be. Some of the transit city lines should be subways (like Sheppard) and many should be buses or express buses (most other lines in Scarborough). Kingston Road is one of the only routes where I think LRT is pretty sensible.

 

[Rainforest]

For the person that talked about subways being built when "fantasy funding" arrives...Fantasy Funding has arrived! We're getting $60 billion dollars.

It would be great to get those $60 billion. In reality, we are probably getting $11.5 billion per MoveOntario 2000 from the Province and may be some matching Federal contribution ($5 billion would be on the optimistic side I guess), in the medium turn.

Since Metrolinx ducked the necessary but unpopular taxation decisions, long term funding level remains totally uncertain.

We're getting bus rapid transit (or more) through farmers' fields way out in Durham region. We're getting 5 "rapid transit" connections to Pickering. There is absolutely no reason whatsoever why a sensible subway extension like finishing Sheppard to STC couldn't be built with the funds available.

I absolutely agree that the labirinth of dubous rapid transit lines in the east end of Metrolinx map does not make much sense. However, that labirinth cannot be regarded as a sign of fiscal abundance. Most of those lines simply won't get built due to the lack of funding.

There is absolutely no reason why (a) subways should cost $250 million per kilometre or (b) the segment east of Kennedy couldn't be built mostly above ground. It could follow the creekbed until it meets the existing RT alignment, and then follow the RT alignment eastward to STC, ideally with the RT having been replaced with an extension of the Bloor Danforth line.

"Mostly above ground" is conditional on the removal of RT and BD subway extension, which is not guaranteed at all. Metrolinx is musing about the Eglinton - STC corridor which means retention of RT guideway.

Even if fully above-ground, it won't cost less than $150 M per km, or $450 M total. It is not the best idea to bundle this cost on top of the already more expensive subway option, and hence reduce the likehood that subway option will be selected.

There is nothing that prevents adding the Agincourt - STC extension later.

I obviously prefer Option 2, though it would be crazy not to just finish the subway to STC. I also find the value of the streetcar east of Agincourt to be quite dubious. Anybody who knows the area will tell you that there really isn't much on Sheppard east of Kennedy, and certainly not much that wouldn't already be served by the multitude of dollar-sign-shaped routes in that part of Scarborough.

The cost of LRT line east of Agincourt would be around $400 - 500 M, similar to the cost of subway chunk from Agincourt to STC. I reckon that the former (LRT) will be useful for a greater number of people, and hence should be built first.

As Scarberian correctly pointed out in another thread, a subway line does not have to be loaded to the brim to be considered useful. However, I believe that same principle applies to an LRT line.

Plus, political considerations are not to be ingored. Cancelling the Sheppard LRT in favor of subway extension to STC and nothing east of it won't fly well with the residens of N-E Scarborough, who were already promised the LRT. On the contrary, the idea to upgrade part of their route to subway and uphold the rest as LRT will be welcome.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

Plus, political considerations are not to be ingored. Cancelling the Sheppard LRT in favor of subway extension to STC and nothing east of it won't fly well with the residens of N-E Scarborough, who were already promised the LRT. On the contrary, the idea to upgrade part of their route to subway and uphold the rest as LRT will be welcome.

There would be absolutely no political ramifications. Councillors promised Scarborough a subway extension and then quietly changed their minds but no one cared...and that was after much ado about subways in the papers and with all kinds of people wearing stickers, etc. - fewer people have even heard of these proposed LRT lines, let alone would be upset by changes to lines that don't exist yet. It's not like they're filling Eglinton West-type holes back in. I've yet to encounter a real person (not an urban/transit geek on the internet or one of the usual 100 people per ward that attend every public meeting) in this city who was aware of Transfer City.

 

[unimaginative2]

Even if fully above-ground, it won't cost less than $150 M per km, or $450 M total. It is not the best idea to bundle this cost on top of the already more expensive subway option, and hence reduce the likehood that subway option will be selected.

Where do you get the $150 million per kilometre figure? There is absolutely no reason why a surface or elevated transit route should cost anywhere near that much. I can't think of a place on earth that pays that much for an above-ground line. I think the best idea is to finish the subway as originally intended, connecting Toronto's two major suburban development centres and transit hubs.

There is nothing that prevents adding the Agincourt - STC extension later.

The last thing we need is another stubway. Why should a vital and necessary extension that has been planned for decades be postponed when we have already programmed $60 billion worth of transit improvements, including busways through farmers' fields?

The cost of LRT line east of Agincourt would be around $400 - 500 M, similar to the cost of subway chunk from Agincourt to STC. I reckon that the former (LRT) will be useful for a greater number of people, and hence should be built first.

There are far, far more people and connecting transit routes at STC than along Sheppard east of Kennedy. Seriously, take a trip out there. There's nothing at all of note on Sheppard. STC is a designated growth centre in the official plan and has seen dozens of new condos built. It's also the hub of bus lines in Scarborough.

 

[Dan416]

Does anyone else feel like we're having the same discussions over and over and over again? Like, seriously? How many times have discussed the Sheppard East corridor and subway versus LRT there? The only additional thing here is the westward extension to Downsview, which I coincidentally have on my map I recently posted.

 

[kEiThZ]

I like option 1, because it supports Seneca. I guess from there hooking with Sheppard at Consumers is a no brainer. But I also see the value in extending the Sheppard subway to Agincourt.....perhaps the TTC could get a few bus bays there for a mini hub. Just curious... Is there that much traffic that a Sheppard extension is needed to Downsview? Or the western extension for the sake of network completeness?

 

[Voltz]

I like option 1, because it supports Seneca. I guess from there hooking with Sheppard at Consumers is a no brainer. But I also see the value in extending the Sheppard subway to Agincourt.....perhaps the TTC could get a few bus bays there for a mini hub. Just curious... Is there that much traffic that a Sheppard extension is needed to Downsview? Or the western extension for the sake of network completeness?

Nope, not enough passenger demand for a western extension. Not enough for an eastern extension either. But it looks good on a map, so why not spend $2 billion on it?

I would personally prefer extending the Sheppard lrt though the subway tunnels and on to Downsview, possibly with a connection up to finch along Bathurst. Looking at the actual ridership projections, this is more than enough to handle future demand.

This wouldn't rule out anything on finch east

 

[mastershake]

Nope, not enough passenger demand for a western extension. Not enough for an eastern extension either.

Voltz, I'm curious how you came to that conclusion. What stats are you looking at, and are you familiar with the area at all?

Some of the East-West bus routes in the area are pretty busy:

85 Sheppard East: 28 300 passengers per day
190 Scarborough Centre Rocket: 8200
39 Finch East and 139 Finch-Don M ills: 44 600
95 York Mills 23 600

That's about 100,000 trips east or west across the top part of the city, every day. And right now most of these bus routes are painfully crowded and slow.

 

[kEiThZ]

^ If you consider just the ridership of the 85, the 190 and the 70k daily riders on the Sheppard subway, then there's a case to be made perhaps to just convert the whole Sheppard subway to LRT...given that the TTC says that LRT can handle 10-15k people per hour. This raises sooo many questions in my mind:

1) I wonder if it's cheaper to do this.
2) Will cost recovery on the line improve?
3) And if there's money saved will it be enough to help extend the line to Downsview? Or how much more would be needed?
4) How quickly would a LRT run out of capacity and need to be upgraded to a subway?

All in all, I'd still rather scrap the LRT and exted the Sheppard subway, but there's always a reality called money.....

 

[Dan416]

Personally I see absolutely zero reason to convert the Sheppard subway to LRT. I think it's the most bone-headed idea I've ever heard. Let's SPEND money to DEGRADE service. It sounds like a Conservative plot if I ever heard one.

 

[kEiThZ]

Personally I see absolutely zero reason to convert the Sheppard subway to LRT. I think it's the most bone-headed idea I've ever heard. Let's SPEND money to DEGRADE service.

I think it's a question of how to improve commonality and reduce transfers. At it stands, going down Sheppard, you have the bus, then maybe the LRT, then the subway and then the bus again. That's where I think converting would help. For example, even the TTC points out in their display boards that they don't want people having to travel one stop from Consumers.

Now I don't know if LRT is just too little capacity for all of Sheppard. That's the question I am posing. But if it is, I see some benefits to changing over. First off, one less transfer. Second, faster speeds possible on the subway portion. Third, improved fleet commonality along that line. But all that would hinge on capacity.....

 

[Voltz]

Personally I see absolutely zero reason to convert the Sheppard subway to LRT. I think it's the most bone-headed idea I've ever heard. Let's SPEND money to DEGRADE service. It sounds like a Conservative plot if I ever heard one.

It would not degrade the service at all. Sheppard is currently way underused, with only 4 car trains running nearly every 6 minutes, and even that is more than needed. The rider ship projections show a peak demand of only 3,000 per hour on Sheppard east, a subway can handle 30,000. If building an expensive subway line that will only use 10% of its capacity is not a bone-headed idea then I don't know what is.

As an example, the TTC could run LRT trains in the subway every 2 minutes, every 4 minutes on the surface sections, and every 8 minutes past STC.

It would cost money to convert the subway, so I would only support such a move if it included an westward extension, as well as the cost not being to un-reasonable

 

[scarberiankhatru]

Voltz, those are ridership projections for an LRT, not an exact accounting of "demand" that makes any sense in isolation of what and when projects are built...if the city had been supporting a subway extension, the figures would have tweaked much higher and if the city had supported a busway or anything else, the figures would have been tweaked that way. The 85+190 combo already does the better part of 3000 riders per hour and a realistic subway extension figure would have to include modal growth (new rapid transit will probably double transit usage in an area), population growth, people shifting over from other lines (as mastershake notes, even a small percentage of shifted riders could be significant), etc. Between Downsview and STC, the city has plans to add tens of thousands of new residential units in the near future along Sheppard. Sheppard is also the line best able to capture that mythic crosstown travel (not a route like Eglinton or the 407 transitway) due to the high number of schools, malls, and jobs in the northern half of the 416 which a complete Sheppard subway would provide speedy access to.

LRT tries to be the best fit for the entire corridor but an LRT line would only see a few hundred riders per hour in the east - hardly worth spending a dime on when a Rocket route like the 190, extended out to Malvern, could improve capacity and travel times for next to no money and when billions of dollars of other lines are also being run out to the same place, competing for the same riders. Oh, that's right, LRT lines are great no matter how few riders they carry, but subways must be at capacity.

 

[kEiThZ]

Scarberian,

By your numbers though, even if we exclude the east, there's a good case to be made for using LRT the whole way. Given that the TTC says LRT can handle upto 10 000 an hour, surely that would accommodate all the growth along that line and the 3000 pax/hr that flow through now. There would be one less transfer, and no need to run bus service west of McCowan. We might even get more intermediate stations along the subway. I'd support the subway based on speed (and that's largely my preference here). But LRT seems to be the better option on construction and operating cost.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

By your numbers though, even if we exclude the east, there's a good case to be made for using LRT the whole way. Given that the TTC says LRT can handle upto 10 000 an hour, surely that would accommodate all the growth along that line and the 3000 pax/hr that flow through now. There would be one less transfer, and no need to run bus service west of McCowan. We might even get more intermediate stations along the subway. I'd support the subway based on speed (and that's largely my preference here). But LRT seems to be the better option on construction and operating cost.

My numbers do not suggest that...I'm saying that spending well over a billion dollars to degrade service and close the line for a while during construction and not support future development and spend substantially more money than is warranted along the eastern half of Sheppard East, etc., all to end up with an LRT line that could be overcapacity at Yonge is absurd.