grey
Senior Member
Quash any doubts you have about how busy the new Union Station retail and food court will by visiting any adjacent office tower food court at noon.
Toronto Union Station Revitalization | ?m | ?s | City of Toronto | NORR
nfitz
Superstar
Try visiting the same food courts on a Saturday. Many don't even open.
The retail area at Union seems too big for just a food court.
TOareaFan
Superstar
Somewhere there is a grocer salivating over the prospect of paying the cost of fitting out a large(ish) grocery store, and paying Union Station rents to provide the sort of convenience some "X"% (and who knows what X equals) of GO commuters want to pick up 2 or 3 items occasionally.
TOareaFan
Superstar
That's what I meant when I said this
If that is what they are looking to build/create, I have little doubt they will be successful......but I get the impression they (and many people here) think it will be so much more than that....and that is where my skepticism comes in.
nfitz
Superstar
The ValueMart at Woodbine station seems to do very well with most people walking in on foot from the subway (or from nearby), and only taking a few things. There's a few doing large shops, but certainly not most people.Somewhere there is a grocer salivating over the prospect of paying the cost of fitting out a large(ish) grocery store, and paying Union Station rents to provide the sort of convenience some "X"% (and who knows what X equals) of GO commuters want to pick up 2 or 3 items occasionally.
Though I certainly stuff far more than 2-3 things in my knapsack.
TOareaFan
Superstar
Given the cost of this project....I suspect the rent being charged is going to be much higher than what the ValuMart at Woodbine is paying.
Retailers have a key calc called GROC.......it is the ratio of their Gross Revenues to their Occupancy Costs......simply put, if the OC part is high....they need the GR part to be really high.
nfitz
Superstar
If it was a private project I'd agree. The city will probably be more concerned about the optics of empty stores than low revenue, which will be buried so deep in the accounting that few will notice.
TOareaFan
Superstar
Then the space is just as unprofitable....only, in your suggestion, it is the landlord taking the hit not the retailer.....and is, still, unsuccessful retail real estate.
EDIT....and, I might add, may have negative impact on other nearby retail. eg. Longos pays $X psf (and it is a pretty big number) to MLSq for their store....that rent becomes a factor in the prices they have to charge for their goods and services....if, say, the city rents out space to a grocer in Union station for $1/2 X to attract them the space....they now have an economic advantge over Longos and can win custom on price......perhaps making the Longos space unprofitable long term.....even short term there comes a point where the numbers indicate the loss is smaller if you just shutter the store and pay rent on space they are not using.
Not sure it is any government's role in the market place to be doing this. (ie. take a loss on a real estate play just to create further losses to market players).
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salsa
Senior Member
There's a growing number of downtown residents who work in the 905. For them, Union station itself is "the other end", so they can do their full grocery shopping there without getting on another train.
mdrejhon
Senior Member
That be true, but office food courts won't be as busy as a transportation hub food court on a Saturday or Sunday. People will still be using Union on weekends.
More people go through Union on weekends, than people using the Woodbine station ValuMart on weekends -- and they still succeed attracting TTC riders. Projects through to 2031 show Metrolinx-operated trains going through Union is possibly moving more people than TTC subway trains do.
Transit users and condo dwellers do not visit boring office food courts. They like to visit shopping malls instead, and Union Retail is 1/3 food court, 1/3 restaurants/foodmarket, and 1/3 other. Look at the fancy names already announced (Balzac's coffee, Mill beer, Burger Priest, Union Chicken rotisserie chicken). That's already looking promising. This sneak preview looks potentially higher end than even Urban Eatery, after all! Some (high-quality) cheap options mixed in with (expensive) premium options. If this keeps up, Union Retail becomes a destination unto itself instead of a dread it used to be. And the marketplace planned is a bunch of booths in the St. Lawrence Marketplace style, not a plain Longo's (unless they're secretive right now to test a dramatically different format).
So, overall, if it turns out to a nice retail level that you actually want to hang out on a Sunday, some waterfront condo dwellers will go there instead of other options as portions of the waterfront has been historically lacking amenities. And there are people travelling through Union on weekends too, unlike travelling through offices. This will happen far more often when they dramatically increase offpeak/weekend trains to more than 3x current. I do have concerns about the 2018-2023 timeframe (pre-RER) but I don't see problems with mixed retail becoming viable and super-popular within 8 years, after teething problems pre-2018 due to blocked-off construction, 2018-2023 offpeak pre-RER, but beyond, should be really popular 7 days a week and self sustaining once the weak stores are ferretted out. For sure, opening hours might not become fully mature till 2023 (except minimum mandatory hours where required by leaseholder agreement), due to Union traffic growth concerns, and probably about 10%-20% of the places will have accelerated failure prior to stabilized attrition, but that is not altogether a very unusual or unreasonable given the construction (station and network-wise) circumstances and rapid market flux (boomtown style).
From that point of view, we're really just chiefly disagreeing about 'how soon' it evolves to a successful retail/food mix, and what the final 'successful' (RER start) 2023 mix may be.
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mdrejhon
Senior Member
That be true, but office food courts won't be as busy as a transportation hub food court on a Saturday or Sunday. People will still be using Union on weekends.
More people go through Union on weekends, than people using the Woodbine station ValuMart on weekends -- and they still succeed attracting TTC riders. Projects through to 2031 show Metrolinx-operated trains going through Union is possibly moving more people than TTC subway trains do.
Transit users and condo dwellers do not visit boring office food courts. They like to visit shopping malls instead, and Union Retail is 1/3 food court, 1/3 restaurants/foodmarket, and 1/3 other. Look at the fancy names already announced (Balzac's coffee, Mill beer, Burger Priest, Union Chicken rotisserie chicken). That's already looking promising. This sneak preview looks potentially higher end than even Urban Eatery, after all! Sitdown waitered restaurants are planned too. That doesn't sound like the place that would close on Sundays. And if they somehow luckily pull in a Michelin-rated sitdown restaurant, who knows? At least two or three rave-review-type establishments look like they're already on their way. Such a cluster is enough to attract non-commuters, and the flow of announcements haven't even started. If it's full, they'll see all the other incredibly high-Yelp/Urbanspoon rated food establishments including names already announced. Some (high-quality) cheap options mixed in with (expensive) premium options. If this keeps up, Union Retail becomes a destination unto itself instead of a dread it used to be. And the marketplace planned is a bunch of booths in the St. Lawrence Marketplace style, not a plain Longo's (unless they're secretive right now to test a dramatically different format).
So, overall, if it turns out to a nice retail level that you actually want to hang out on a Sunday, some waterfront condo dwellers will go there instead of other options as portions of the waterfront has been historically lacking amenities. And there are people travelling through Union on weekends too, unlike travelling through offices. This will happen far more often when they dramatically increase offpeak/weekend trains to more than 3x current. I do have concerns about the 2018-2023 timeframe (pre-RER) but I don't see problems with mixed retail becoming viable and super-popular within 8 years, after teething problems pre-2018 due to blocked-off construction, 2018-2023 offpeak pre-RER, but beyond, should be really popular 7 days a week and self sustaining once the weak stores are ferretted out. For sure, opening hours might not become fully mature till 2023 (except minimum mandatory hours where required by leaseholder agreement), due to Union traffic growth concerns, and probably about 10%-20% (or your favorite number) of the places will have accelerated failure prior to stabilized attrition, but that is not altogether a very unusual or unreasonable given the construction (station and network-wise) circumstances and rapid market flux (boomtown style). But, for sure, it is not going to be another Hamilton Eaton Centre bankruptcy of 15 years ago, or Aura basement mall situation (undersized, dead end concourse).
From that point of view, we're probably really just chiefly disagreeing about 'how soon' it evolves to a successful retail/food mix, and what the final 'successful' (RER start) 2023 mix may be.
To be fair, if the current mix becomes unsuccessful, it could even go 100% food court open only during weekdays, if push came to shove, if that's far more gangbusters profitable. Or any wildly imaginable scenario, like they install a highly coveted tourist attraction under the VIA concourse, or some other business model to attract non-commuters. They'll no doubt tweak it over time. But I think a foodmarket (not Longos style but more St. Lawrence Marketplace style), will be extremely popular as it builds clientile from both commuters (like me) and waterfront residents who have much easier access to Union than St. Lawrence Marketplace. I think there will be roughly 20% attrition over the few years (e.g. 20% of retail close and replace with new tenants before RER full operation) -- many hurt by construction delays (e.g. lack of TTC PATH connection) and currently low offpeak, but that's not altogether bad at all for a brand new startup mall operating in the middle of a construction site.
Either way, the majority of the 135,000 square feet will gradually be more and more viable and profitable, whatever mix they stabilize on -- it's really truly prime space once Union finally becomes a fun attraction into itself and starts actually attracting people. People getting off UPX have a direct connection to the Union food court, 7 days a week, after all! Arriving tourists after long flights are often hungry as Pearson arrivals food is lacking -- and they prefer to eat something nicer in Toronto. They'll follow the food sign to the Union food court. UPX tourists alone could be incredibly profitable, since UPX people are herded through the food court just to catch TTC! TTC direction signs are going to be put up at UPX exit -- and will herd them down the escalators smack middle of food court. Some ARE going to be tempted by Burger Priest or Rotiserrie Chicken, if the lineups are not long, and the shops are open (contractually obligated).
So both you and I might even very well be partially right in different aspects, even if we disagree on details/amounts/when (e.g. success of St. Lawrence style place). A food court with 20% failed shops may look really bad, but at Union they will quickly be replaced with "OPENING SOON" signs, as the tenant demand will be extremely high since at least 1/4 of the shops of the 135,000sq ft will be so gangbusters popular, even if the other 3/4 is empty; it will attract huge numbers of new retail to quickly take over the failed businesses. There is no chance that it will be become unsuccessful totally mall-wide; the mere prescence of just one cafe with long morning lineups during moring peak, fully subsidizes a fully empty contractually-obligated weekend, while still being more profitable than 7-day locations elsewhere in the city, as one example. Yes, there will be quiet operations like Sat/Sun mornings, if they are contractually obligated to stay open, but the rest of the week will keep things profitable enough enough that they won't fail because they are forced to stay open Sat/Sun. Maybe the hours will only be weekdays at first, then all week after 2023. Who knows? Maybe we should run a bet on the attrition rate.
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dowlingm
Senior Member
Having somewhere reasonably convenient to the Financial District other than Front St West restaurants to get something to eat on the weekend would be interesting to try out. Wanted to grab dinner when working at King and Bay one Saturday evening last year and it was a long walk before I found something open.
grey
Senior Member
Yeah, and imagine what a huge amenity this will be for people living in condos and rentals within the Financial District.
Le Gique
Active Member
What's with the wooden door panels affixed to the north wall, in the south Bay GO Concourse, beneath 24-25, near the entrance to ACC?
Le Gique
Active Member
Union Station in DC was once a top shopping destination in Greater Washington, after major renos in the 80s (?). Now keep in mind, it has many grand interior spaces, allowing two floors of higher-end retail.
The basement food court was hot early on, and included a movie theatre. The screens closed years ago and the food court cooled, with some crappy looking outlets and a critical mass of vacancies.
Was there in April and it was fuller and more welcoming, but still a basement. I think I had pizza. At its best, a great outlet made Southren food, with collard greens and everything. Now it's dominated by chains and average food. The "Indian" outlet served stuff in tacky styro, and seemed cheap.
There are renos again in their great hall, where a two floor open plan resto took prime place.
Some of the upper retail was also vacant.
Now it may not be relevant but our Union never supported anything resembling high end shopping or eating for the years before this rebuild.
The basement food court was hot early on, and included a movie theatre. The screens closed years ago and the food court cooled, with some crappy looking outlets and a critical mass of vacancies.
Was there in April and it was fuller and more welcoming, but still a basement. I think I had pizza. At its best, a great outlet made Southren food, with collard greens and everything. Now it's dominated by chains and average food. The "Indian" outlet served stuff in tacky styro, and seemed cheap.
There are renos again in their great hall, where a two floor open plan resto took prime place.
Some of the upper retail was also vacant.
Now it may not be relevant but our Union never supported anything resembling high end shopping or eating for the years before this rebuild.