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GTA economy losing steam, report finds
Study Of Past Five Years; Trailing Behind Canada In Terms Of Growth Of Income Per Capita
James Cowan
National Post
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
Toronto risks losing its premier place on Canada's economic landscape as it falls behind other cities in productivity and standard of living, according to a report released today.
The TD Economics report offers a survey of the Greater Toronto Area's economy over the past five years, noting the region's real GDP per capita increased at half of Canada's overall rate and one-third of other large cities.
Meanwhile, economic output per employee grew by just a half per cent per year, compared with 2% in most U.S. cities. Overall, the GTA's annual economic growth was just 2.5%, far below both the 3% national average and the 5% growth rate in Calgary and 3.4% in Vancouver.
James Milway, executive director of the Institute for Competitiveness & Prosperity, said the findings challenge Toronto's image as the economic engine of Canada.
"Toronto's the single largest economy inside the country, but it's trailing behind Canada as a whole in terms of the growth of income per capita," Mr. Milway said. "We have to recognize that Toronto has been the golden goose or the economic engine -- whatever metaphor you choose -- you have to recognize it's stalling a bit."
Don Drummond, chief economist for the TD Bank Financial Group and co-author of the report, said its findings suggest Toronto residents are not doing as well financially as they could be. "You would hope you would get wealthier and better off over time. That has been the historical trend for Toronto and that has been the experience for most other places in the world, but we're just standing still," Mr. Drummond said. "We're not falling further, but we're not getting ahead."
The report notes the unemployment rate in the Toronto area has dropped nearly an entire percentage point over the past five years, but it now sits above the national average for the first time in history.
While the report suggests the Toronto economy has weathered such challenges as the SARS outbreak in 2003 and the province-wide blackout the same year, it also notes unexpected developments have caused issues.
Problems include a nearly 50% rise in the value of the Canadian dollar, a tripling in the average price of such commodities as oil and natural gas and sharp competition from China for the production of auto parts and other goods.
These factors have caused the manufacturing sector in the Toronto region to lose 100,000 jobs in the past five years, or roughly 20% of the workforce. The auto sector alone has lost 10,000 jobs, a drop that is cited as particularly worrisome given the same sector grew by 100,000 employees between 1997 and 2002.
The report argues the spillover effects of the decline in manufacturing have been "muted" by the region's housing boom, which created 40,000 construction jobs and 150,000 jobs in related areas such as the financial, retail and wholesale trade sectors.
"Without growth in the housing sectors in the GTA and across the country, the softness in manufacturing activity would have been even more pronounced," the report warns.
Mr. Drummond and co-author Derek Burleton acknowledge Toronto's ability to bolster its fortunes has been hampered by the perennial shortfall between its revenues and its program needs. The gap stands at between $700-million and $1.1-billion.
The report suggests the Ontario government should take back responsibility for $500-million in social services and that the city must also consider public-private partnerships to finance infrastructure projects. However, Mr. Drummond does not support Mayor David Miller's plans to impose a land transfer tax of between 0.5% and 2% as well as a $60 annual tax on automobile registrations.
"If you have to go to the tax well, you should do something that achieves some economic or social good rather than just being a revenue grab and certainly the motor vehicle and the land-transfer tax are nothing but revenue grabs, pure and simple," Mr. Drummond said.
If the city must impose new taxes, it should consider road tolls that could ease gridlock and encourage residents to take public transit, Mr. Drummond said.