Toronto Spadina Subway Extension Emergency Exits | ?m | 1s | TTC | IBI Group

[scarberiankhatru]

That's not unusual in the early stage of any project ... they haven't even finished the design yet,

Yet at the same time, the estimated passenger volumes are higher than any of the Transit City lines, or the (new) Spadina and Sheppard lines. If you don't build this as subway, you never build another subway in the GTA again.

Uh, yeah, obviously I know that the Yonge line needs to be extended.

Still, that's no excuse to throw hundreds of millions of dollars down the drain. I think Yonge already has some contingency built in (they're actually hoping to secure a "Madrid Miracle" by getting a firm like Dragados to build it, though that's unlikely) but if they bumped it up to 26% like Spadina, that's just even more hundreds of millions frittered away. Aside from reasonable cost savings, there's no incentive not to spend every available dollar if the dollars are made available in the budget from the outset. Inflation is not to blame for this. Steeles station alone is going to cost near $250M in 2008 dollars, but they could have chosen to spend half that.

 

[kEiThZ]

^ Is that ginormous bus terminal a done deal though? Might some of it not get scaled down as more detailed studies and design work is undertaken.

 

[nfitz]

Uh, yeah, obviously I know that the Yonge line needs to be extended.

It's not obvious at all - you said a minute ago that the money is being thrown down the drain. Now you say it's obvious that you know it needs to be extended. It's not obvious at all what you are trying to say!

 

[Edward Skira]

He's saying that they are spending more money than is needed for a line that should be built. Things like overspending on the Steeles station for example.

 

[GenerationW]

construction on the tunnels is expected to begin in 2010, using four earth pressure balance tunnel boring machines with service starting in late 2015.

Are these being bought brand new? Didn't Toronto sell the machines used for Sheppard?

 

[GenerationW]

If you don't build this as subway, you never build another subway in the GTA again.

Some might say that we may not anyway.

 

[rbt]

Are these being bought brand new? Didn't Toronto sell the machines used for Sheppard?

A TBM has a lifespan of about 15 years. Sheppards aren't any good anymore. I'm pretty sure they went to Moscow.

Aside from that, even if they were still good there would have been a cost to store them. In 2002 there was absolutely no public transit funding on the horizon -- we were rebuilding 20 year old buses instead of buying new ones and deferring work on leaking tunnels due to funding issues -- so to store them in an environmentally controlled space (expensive) just in case someone dropped $4B on SOGR and an extra $5B for expansion would have been a really bad business decision.


When you sell your lake front cottage due to lack of funds, do you pay to put the boat into storage just in case you might buy another cottage in 10 years or do you unload the boat?

In reality, the 4 TBMs are under 1% of the total budget and will probably be reused on projects starting after 2012 (Yonge subway line?). Eglinton may involve the purchase of additional TBMs in order to finish by 2016.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

It's not obvious at all - you said a minute ago that the money is being thrown down the drain. Now you say it's obvious that you know it needs to be extended. It's not obvious at all what you are trying to say!

As usual, it's obvious to anyone and everyone but you.

 

[GenerationW]

A TBM has a lifespan of under 15 years. Sheppards aren't any good anymore. I'm pretty sure they went to Moscow.

Thanks for the info.

So like the ones used for Sheppard, these ones could conceivably sit idle for approximately the last half of their usefulness. That's excellent planning!

Is Moscow using a useless machine to dig tunnels or for something else?

 

[nfitz]

As usual, it's obvious to anyone and everyone but you.

I fail to see how saying that extending the Yonge subway is throwing money down the drain can possibly be seen as support for the Yonge subway!

So like the ones used for Sheppard, these ones could conceivably sit idle for approximately the last half of their usefulness. That's excellent planning!

??? Plan, what plan? I think someone was simply talking of what they could be used for after they are finished. Presumably they would plan to simply dispose of in the most logical fashion at the end of the tunelling.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

I fail to see how saying that extending the Yonge subway is throwing money down the drain can possibly be seen as support for the Yonge subway!

Make an appointment with your optometrist.

 

[rbt]

Thanks for the info.

So like the ones used for Sheppard, these ones could conceivably sit idle for approximately the last half of their usefulness. That's excellent planning!

TBMs are cheap compared to the labour to operate them. I expect you own or rent a home? Is it occupied at all times or is it occasionally sitting empty and unused? You could potentially let or sublet it out during those periods when you are gone to maximize the investment in your home.

The investment in TBMs is far smaller to the city than your investment in your home. In fact, in the grant scheme of things the TBMs are probably closer in budget to your coffee maker. I know my coffee maker is only used for a few minutes a day and not even every day.


Anyway, I guess my point is "penny wise, pound foolish" with regards to this specific concern.

The operating subsidy for the new Spadina line will be significantly more per annum than the TBMs cost to purchase, and they only needed to be purchased once.

 

[Mike in TO]

Re Inflation:

The year-over-year increase in the Non-Residential Building Construction Price Index in the 2004-2009 timeframe is approximately 30% alone.

Also the regulatory regime is so complex it borders on insane - here is just one examply that may impact either the Yonge or Spadina line. The Ministry of the Environment has posted regs for updating brownfields standards on the EBR - the standards are so stringent that virtually all of the inert fill excavated for the tunnels and stations would be considered contaminated and therefore it would either have to be remediated on site or a suitable receiving site would have to be located, furthermore any soil moved around would not be legally allowed to be put back into the ground to fill in gaps around tunnels or to go back into the ground above the completed tunnels above the tunnels as it would be considered contaminated - therefore clean fill would have to transported on site while the excavated soil would all have to be transported to a special receiving site for treatment.

That is but just one new/upcoming regulatory issue that drives up costs.

 

[nfitz]

It is way above CPI inflation. The last time I found the numbers, I think the Non-residential Building Construction Price Index for Toronto has averaged about 6% per year for the last decade. This has been well documented and discussed here previously. And it hasn't tripled. Sheppard was about $1-billion for 6 km (including some tail track). About $165-million per kilometre, from about 1995 to 2002. Spadina is $2.6-billion for 8.6 km ... giving the $300-million number that has been widely reported ... from about 2008 to 2015. So 13 years of inflation. A little math gives you an inflation rate of 4.7% over those 13 years.

I'm trying to pull the Non-residential Building Construction Price Index for Toronto from Stats Can for last 13-years, but it's asking me for $12 for the data, though nationally it is up 145.2% in 7 years. That's 5.4%. Perhaps someone can find better Toronto-specific data ... I've seen it before, and I think it's actually a bit higher.

If anything Spadina extension with an inflation rate of only 4.7% over Sheppard seems low, not high.

Oh here's something comparable. MTOs Tender Price Index. Highways rather than subways, but for the most recent 13-year period (1996-1997 to 2008-2009) it has increased from 106.94 to 213.22 ... 5.5%. However, 1995-1996 to 2007-2008 might be fairer, and it was 4.5%. For reference the last 5 years the annual increase was 9.9%, 8.9%, 5.1%, 10.2%, and 12.3%. Much higher than inflation ... and this is why subways cost much more now, than they did when Shepherd was built.

And with a project taking over 10 years from conception to completion, do we assume that the price will increase at the historical 4-5%, or the more recent 10% or so!

I bet the increase in the next year or two will be lower, if not negative, but what about 3-5 years from now?

 

[Mike in TO]

Small Update:

• Toronto's Government Management Committee was set to consider approving the acquisition of five new properties and revised requirements for six previously approved sites
• The new properties include 20, 47 and 53 St. Regis Crescent, 3757 Keele Street and the city-owned site at 1300 Sheppard Avenue West.
• The city’s requirements have been revised for some of the properties previously approved for acquisition, including 77 St. Regis Crescent and 3675-3677, 3685, 3695, 3701 and 3711 Keele Street.
• Changes to the design of the subway tunnel between Sheppard West and Finch West stations necessitated the acquisitions and revised requirements. It has been recommended that the city expropriate the sites if necessary.