Most of the growth in the region are happening the the fringes, often in unsustainable manner.
AOD, I don't really post on UT very often anymore, but I do take issue with this statement you’ve made...
Urban development patterns in the GTAH have undergone a drastic pendulum swing over the past decade. The high-rise market has been booming the past several years for a variety of reasons (which may or may not be sustainable) and will reach record level of sales this year - furthermore despite fairly weak overall provincial housing numbers - multi-unit housing starts will reach their highest level since 1988 (possibly even 1978 depending on December starts), while other forms of housing (i.e. single family) are plodding along at near record lows. Both shifts in the marketplace & provincial government policy are factors that are having a strong influence on the monumental shifts occurring.
Growth Plan conformity (Places to Grow) is a very slow process, so the full results on the ground will take years - but the York & Peel ROPAs are essentially done, Halton will be done soon and Durham is a long-standing problem, but OMB hearings or a negotiated settlement could end the conformity process next year. Greenfield density targets of 50 persons/jobs ha will be in place and land allocation methodologies are essentially finalized in most regions. Also intensification targets (40%) in the regions are in place and due to significant land supply shortages these targets are already being reached 5 years early (these targets were considered very very aggressive just a few years ago and far exceed intensification levels in the 80s & 90s) ... I think there is a
massive misconception that it is "business as usual" in the 905.
There are 58,696 ha of land available in the whitebelt - yet the current round of conformity has only resulted in municipal applications for an additional 10,155 ha for up to 2031 (5,196 ha residential / 4,919 ha employment) - which is only 17.2% of the whitebelt area (a long-term strategic urban reserve up to the edge of the greenbelt). All decisions regarding future land uses on these lands must conform to the Growth Plan and the Provincial Policy Statement. Land consumption is slowing significantly due to intensification and much higher greenfield densities - our suburbs, while still very much being 'suburban' or considered 'sprawl' by some are being planned and developed very differently than in the past not only in terms of density, but also in terms of watershed based planning with MESPs (Master Environmental Servicing Plans) being a fairly new feature and a variety of other sustainability based items (i.e. new energy targets in the OBC which is a first in North America except for California).
The five year growth plan update released this summer includes growth modeling comparing two future scenarios – one that assumes that the Growth Plan will be fully implemented and one that does not take the Growth Plan into account – it suggests that the Growth Plan could help to conserve as much as 800 square kilometers of agricultural and rural land by 2031 (14% increase in urbanized land vs 39% increase).
Research into existing development patterns over the last decade across the entire Greater Golden Horseshoe (Peterborough to Collingwood to Kitchener-Waterloo all the way down to Niagara) indicate:
2001-2006 share of housing units:
- 29% Apartment / multi
- 15% Row / Town
- 9% Semi
- 47% Single
2006-2010
- 40% Apartment / multi
- 15% Row / Town
- 7% Semi
- 38% single
The shift in the GTA specific housing starts is even more pronounced as greenfield land availability is at a critically low volume due in part to official plans being tied up in conformity issues.
The 2001-2006 numbers were already an improvement over the 1990s, and due to some serious land supply issues emerging in a number of areas in the GTAH the first half of the current decade is going to undergo a further major shift towards even more intensified patterns of growth.
Sorry for the very long rant… that being said I agree with you with respect to infrastructure planning (although provincial levels of infrastructure investment are running at record levels both in real terms and as a % of GDP are back at the levels in the 50s & 60s – the problem is we’ve gotten so far behind due to decades of under-investment). We are starting to see some progress on this file, but it is frustratingly slow and involves high levels of political interference.
-Mike
