Toronto Municipal Election 2018: Mayor’s Race

[steveintoronto]

Austrian architect professor friend writes this in an email on an ongoing discussion of Keesmaat's platform and what Vienna has accomplished, and why. I'd posted extensively on that in the Council Elections string here as well as this one, especially as to how NYC and other US cities and Vancouver are using creative mixed zoning innovations to promote housing and commerce/light industry very successfully.

As per the Vienna model:

It’s a good start. Vienna is now building 13,000 units per year. How affordable is affordable?

Supportive housing can be a problem. Its better, I think, to have systems in place to provide general support to those earning less. Why should a social agenda be tied to buildings? There are lots of reasons not to do that.

Only a third geared to households earning less than $80 k. That’s also not a lot. Just a couple of thousand units per year. But it’s a start.

At the highest level though, I think it’s most important to discourage growth in the large metropoles in favour of growth in smaller communities. That’s why I think that transportation infrastructure is vital.

We'll be discussing this more deeply in a personal meet next few days, but meanwhile, I started digging on the 'Vienna Model' and got blown away:
First page Google results for "Vienna affordable housing"

Vienna's Affordable Housing Paradise | HuffPost

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/.../vienna-affordable-housing-paradise_us_5b4e0b12...
Jul 19, 2018 - Uwe Mauch has called Vienna “home” for more than 30 years. The 52-year-old Austrian journalist and writer lives in a subsidized apartment in ...
How Vienna Cracked the Case of Housing Affordability | The Tyee

https://thetyee.ca/Solutions/2018/06/06/Vienna-Housing-Affordability-Case-Cracked/
Jun 6, 2018 - Vienna has a 100-year history of building public housing for all. What can we learn? Part three of three.
What Vancouver can learn from the Vienna model for affordable housing

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/...vienna...affordablehousing/article35128683/
May 26, 2017 - In Vienna, 60 per cent of the population lives in social housing projects and there is no shortage of publicly subsidized, rent-controlled units.

Vienna leads globally in affordable housing and quality of life | News ...

https://archinect.com/.../vienna-leads-globally-in-affordable-housing-and-quality-of-li...
Jul 25, 2018 - In Vienna 62% of its citizens reside in public housing, standing in stark contrast with less than 1% living in US social housing. The Austrian ...
How The City of Vienna Handles Affordable Housing and Inclusivity ...

spacing.ca/vancouver/2017/10/.../city-vienna-handles-affordable-housing-inclusivity/
Oct 16, 2017 - Vienna is an internationally renowned city, attractive to employees from the high-tech industry who obtain a Quick Fix for sale online, scholars, ...
How Vienna maintains 8 times as much social housing as Vancouver ...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vienna-social-housing-1.3823842
Oct 27, 2016 - Kurt Puchinger, a housing director from Vienna, Austria, explains how two-thirds ofVienna's housing stock is subsidized. Puchinger is in ...
The Vienna Model: Innovation in Affordable Housing - VAHA ...

vaha.ca/this-post-does-has-all-kinds-of-content-but-no-feature-image/
Vancouver often ranks alongside the Austrian capital of Vienna in top 10 lists of the world's most liveable cities. Vienna's European charm, rich arts and culture ...
Vienna's Unique Social Housing Program | HUD USER

https://www.huduser.gov/portal/pdredge/pdr_edge_featd_article_011314.html
In practice for nearly a century, Vienna's social housing system is known as an effective and innovative model for providing superior, affordable housing to the ...

Housing Policy Lessons from Vienna, Part 1 – mike eliason – Medium

https://medium.com/.../housing-policy-lessons-from-vienna-part-1-516bc45e9090
Apr 16, 2018 - Part two will looks in detail at how zoning and development supports housing affordability. I was in Vienna for the Passivhaus conference last ...
Why rich people in Austria want to live in housing projects | Public ...

https://www.pri.org/stories/2015.../why-rich-people-austria-want-live-housing-projects
Oct 26, 2015 - Vienna's affordable housing experiment is a social democrat's Shangri-La that Bernie Sanders could only dream of in the US.

...continues at Google...

That last link above caught my attention the most, reading it now.

Now in all fairness, Vienna's success is down to historical and societal reasons, but consider this: If Vancouver is willing to learn from this
What Vancouver can learn from the Vienna model for affordable housing then why can't Toronto? A lot may not be adaptable, but surely...*SURELY*! Toronto can contact their peers in Vancouver to ask about it?

Keesmaat has the right gist, does she have the right campaigning delivery though? At the very least, she should be promoting Vienna's success (along with other European and world cities that are similar) as an example to aspire to. Those dismissing her as a 'crank' just show their own ignorance of how things can be done, *are being done* elsewhere.

 

[jje1000]

Faith Goldy storms the stage at Toronto mayoral debate, gets escorted off by police
Controversial Toronto mayoral candidate and former The Rebel Media writer Faith Goldy stormed the stage at a Toronto mayoral debate Monday, attempting to present a petition to the debate moderator before being removed by uniformed Toronto Police officers
https://globalnews.ca/video/4480875...to-mayoral-debate-gets-escorted-off-by-police

Vid at link.

What's interesting is that this seems to go by the new populist handbook of "any publicity is good publicity"- and has played into her hands of raising her profile and giving something to Ford Nation to froth about.

 

[christiesplits]

How high do you reckon is Faith Goldy's ceiling?

With so much of Ford Nation under the impression that Tory is a liberal, bike-riding elitist, where else do hardcore Ford Nationites park their vote?

Doug Ford won 34% of the mayoral vote in 2014. Is it wrong to think that Goldy could win, say, one-third of Ford's vote, or roughly 11% of the popular vote? That would on par with Pantalone's support in 2010.

I think so much of Ford Nation wants to 'own the Libs,' regardless of what candidate it takes to do that. Goldy is strategically wrapping herself in the Ford Nation flag, and should be able to garner their support on e-day.

 

[steveintoronto]

^ In a contorted way, no-one should have been happier to see The Goldy grab the stage more than Keesmaat. It must have been a small piece of Manna.

I shouldn't, but I do feel a bit sorry for Tory. He has lived up to his own expectations...he just hasn't lived up to Toronto's. We need someone a bit more assertive at the steering wheel. A driver, not a passenger.

Is it wrong to think that Goldy could win, say, one-third of Ford's vote, or roughly 11% of the popular vote?

Quick answer: TorSun. I wouldn't have thought they'd support her, but they're bound at the unhip with Ford. And Ford is bound at the azz with Goldy.

The Stun either makes or breaks Tory.

 

[King of Kensington]

Jennifer Keesmaat, endorsed by the NDP councillors and Labour Council, supports P3s (see the advertorial in today's Financial Post). That could cause trouble with the base. Can she make up for that by appealing to people in North Toronto, condo dwellers etc. who don't normally vote NDP and like her "nonpartisan technocrat" demeanor? I have my doubts.

 

[christiesplits]

Jennifer Keesmaat, endorsed by the NDP councillors and Labour Council, supports P3s (see the advertorial in today's Financial Post). That could cause trouble with the base. Can she make up for that by appealing to people in North Toronto, condo dwellers etc. who don't normally vote NDP and like her "nonpartisan technocrat" demeanor? I have my doubts.

Keesmaat has always been more red Liberal than orange NDP. Wasn't she almost recruited to run for the Trudeau Liberals in Davenport?

I don't think Keesmaat will have any issue getting out the NDP vote. I think she will have issues getting out the 'north of St. Clair' vote. She is unabashedly urbane and cosmopolitan in her platform and worldview. This doesn't connect with voters in Maryvale or Thistletown.

Keesmaat has a 30% polling gap to overcome with less than a month to do it. I'm predicting a Pitfield-like result for Keesmaat.

 

[King of Kensington]

I think she will have issues getting out the 'north of St. Clair' vote.

Olivia Chow had that problem, though her case was somewhat different. Olivia tried to have a "big tent" but her attempts to appeal to the center failed because she's at heart too much of a downtown progressive. Keesmaat has the problem of being a North Toronto yuppie trying to sound like a lefty (while at the same playing up her "nonpartisan" credentials to others. She just doesn't have these authentic connections with progressive communities.

 

[steveintoronto]

Jennifer Keesmaat, endorsed by the NDP councillors and Labour Council, supports P3s (see the advertorial in today's Financial Post). That could cause trouble with the base. Can she make up for that by appealing to people in North Toronto, condo dwellers etc. who don't normally vote NDP and like her "nonpartisan technocrat" demeanor? I have my doubts.

Just looking for that at the FinPost, can't find it, please link if you could. "P3" can mean many things, but wholesale, it means Public-Private Partnership.

Did find this searching though, it reinforces my Austrian architect friend's view:
https://business.financialpost.com/...g-more-units-its-better-public-transportation

Very interested in reading Keesmaat's "P3" comments.

Note the dates!

https://twitter.com/jen_keesmaat/status/973996698442784769

https://twitter.com/jen_keesmaat/status/513010797942145024

The latter tweet above makes a very common presumption. It's precisely the *benefit* of having gov't involved if underwriting the project, that gets you the lowest cost of financing while also most of the benefits of free enterprise. (Edit: Excellent example is the Infrastructure Bank). McGreal also overlooks very large corps being able to *finance it themselves*! This is very much the case with massive transit and railway projects, where the vertically integrated company not only builds and finances, it also builds the rolling stock and in some cases, operates it too.

Like any partnership, there are trade-offs, but McGreal is wrong in his claim. It may be the case in some P3s, it all depends on the terms of the agreement, but he doesn't qualify that.

 

[King of Kensington]

They sound "reasonable" on paper (let's take the best of both worlds and not be rigidily ideological, let's combine the public good with the dynamism of the private sector etc.) But audits of P3s show their track record is terrible.

 

[steveintoronto]

But audits of P3s show their track record is terrible.

You're repeating a mantra. It all depends. How "terrible" is a mortgage? It all depends.

Australia's excellent transit systems are almost all P3 financed. The devil isn't in the concept, it's in the implementation. And DBFOM is a form of P3. In many cases, it *saves* money if done right. That's why you don't elect idiots like Doug Ford. He couldn't even spell DBFOM, let alone be in charge of overseeing one. And I'm a Conservative.

Guess what...GO Transit ring any bells?

P3 Components - DBFOM

Public-Private Partnerships (P3s) models integrate multiple project elements into one performance-based contract. The Design-Build-Finance-Operate-Maintain (DBFOM) model integrates the work of five or more companies into one contract. These companies form a special purpose vehicle called a Project Company or a consortium to complete the project. The DBFOM model is the most comprehensive P3 model and it transfers the most risks from the public sector to the private sector.

http://www.pppcouncil.ca/web/P3_Knowledge_Centre/About_P3s/P3_Components.aspx

That in itself is no magic answer. There are no magic answers. If someone does something for you, and you can't afford to pay them, you pay interest on the owed principle.

Huge shock there. Cars, homes and many other items are purchased this way.

The alternative is to do without...

Edit to Add: Here's a Globe article on the subject, quoting Siemiatycki who's in a tweet I posted above, albeit spelled slightly differently:

BARRIE MCKENNA
OTTAWA
PUBLISHED OCTOBER 14, 2012 UPDATED MAY 9, 2018
[...]
Based on a new study of 28 Ontario P3 projects worth more than $7-billion, University of Toronto assistant professor Matti Siemiatycki and researcher Naeem Farooqi found that public-private partnerships cost an average of 16 per cent more than conventional tendered contracts. That's mainly because private borrowers typically pay higher interest rates than governments. Transaction costs for lawyers and consultants also add about 3 per cent to the final bill.

To make an apples-to-apples comparison, Ontario factors in a risk premium compared with doing procurement the conventional way. The premium reflects the risk shouldered by the private partner, including construction delays, cost overruns, design flaws and fluctuating future revenues. The result: The average premium is 49 per cent, making the P3 the better value on paper in every case, according to the Siemiatycki-Farooqi study.

Unfortunately, quantifying those risks requires a bit of accounting hocus pocus – a concern highlighted by Ontario's auditor-general. Or, as Mr. Siemiatycki and Mr. Farooqi put it: "No empirical evidence is provided to substantiate the risk allocations, making it difficult to assess their accuracy and validity."

Without putting a fair price on risk, taxpayers will never know whether P3s are any cheaper than building things the conventional way.

Set the value too high, and P3s become vehicles for governments to subsidize inflated profits of powerful and well-connected contractors and financial institutions.

Notwithstanding these red flags, Ottawa and the provinces continue to embrace the public-private model. P3 Canada Inc., Ottawa's $1.24-billion P3 fund, has sunk more than $300-million into various projects since the summer, including a GO Transit maintenance yard in Whitby, Ont., an airport in Iqaluit and Edmonton's ring-road. This week's hearings are likely aimed at building a case for spending even more in the next budget.

Lost in the fog is the real risk that current and future taxpayers are paying way too much for vital public infrastructure.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/rep...f-public-private-partnerships/article4611798/

Since this was initially published, P3 Canada has been dissolved. It's replaced by the Canada Infrastructure Bank.

[Government of Canada announces wind-down of PPP Canada Crown ...
Nov 3, 2017 - PPP Canada was created 8 years ago to promote the adoption of the Public-Private Partnerships (P3) concept across Canada.]

Articles on this will start to repopulate the popular press as Keesmaat's terminology (which is going to be misread by many) gets more attention.

 

[PinkLucy]

On now. https://globalnews.ca/news/4484638/.../?utm_source=@globalnewsto&utm_medium=Twitter

 

[steveintoronto]

On now. https://globalnews.ca/news/4484638/toronto-mayoral-candidates-debate/?utm_source=@globalnewsto&utm_medium=Twitter

It's actually far better than the Provincial and Federal debates! Well moderated too...

 

[Videodrome]

No Faith Goldy appearance?

 

[steveintoronto]

No Faith Goldy appearance?

Rumour has it they had bouncers at the door. Black ones.

 

[PinkLucy]

The debate is over, but they said it would be available via Global News for viewing and of course highlights will be on the news this evening.