Toronto Municipal Election 2018: Mayor’s Race

[MetroMan]

And they’re off!

While candidate registrations doesn’t begin until May and it’s illegal to campaign before then, Doug Ford found a loophole: he’s running for Ontario PC leadership which we all know is a launching pad for Mayor and a legal excuse to start building an organization, fundraising and begin campaigning. His first rally is on Saturday at the Toronto Congress Centre.

John Tory gets to campaign as Mayor making official appearances and cutting ribbons. He can also leverage the machinery of the Mayor’s office to gather the the media’s attention on demand.

Whoever runs from the left is going to have to find a way to shoehorn themselves in here or risk being crowded out by an early 2 man race. Curiously, Jen Keesmaat just tweeted that she’s been offered a basement to make an announcement. She’s also been very active in the media, writing op-eds or otherwise just opposing Tory.

Let the race begin.

 

[John_Dee]

While candidate registrations doesn’t begin until May and it’s illegal to campaign before then, Doug Ford found a loophole: he’s running for Ontario PC leadership which we all know is a launching pad for Mayor and a legal excuse to start building an organization, fundraising and begin campaigning.

Quick question: Would it be legal for Ford to take whatever campaign money and infrastructure he might raise for the PC Party leadership and just slap that onto another campaign altogether - like, say, running for Mayor - if the PC leadership attempt doesn't go anywhere? Not that I'd expect him to abide by the rules, even if they forbad such a thing, naturally. Laws are for the little people!

 

[PinkLucy]

Probably not at all legal, but as you say, that won't stop Doug from trying, just as he did with email lists.

 

[MetroMan]

Quick question: Would it be legal for Ford to take whatever campaign money and infrastructure he might raise for the PC Party leadership and just slap that onto another campaign altogether - like, say, running for Mayor - if the PC leadership attempt doesn't go anywhere? Not that I'd expect him to abide by the rules, even if they forbad such a thing, naturally. Laws are for the little people!

He can print generic Ford Nation signs and merchandise and then just reuse it for the campaign or just distribute them during the leadership race and let people repurpose them when he launches his mayoral campaign. His email lists and other organizational data and teams would absolutely be used in a municipal election. He found a way to get a head start and of course he's using it. Nobody expects him to have a snowball's chance at winning the PC Leadership. It's perfectly transparent why he's running.

As for Keesmaat, she's up to something. Today she joked about pulling a Doug Ford and borrowing someone's basement for "an announcement". She's been building up a public profile for some reason and it's not to go back to working anonymously in the private sector. I really do think that there's room for her in an election that's shaping up to be a boring 2014 rematch between Tory vs DoFo. People will be sick of hearing about Ford and Tory by the Summer. A fresh face jumping in would garner attention, specially if she's well organized with the left's political machine.

 

[SunriseChampion]

I'd vote for Keesmaat, probably. I'd have to hear her stance on the lack of decent pubs in Mimico, but I'm sure she'd agree with me on that particular issue.

 

[Jasmine18]

Thing is Keesmaat to have any shot, Ford has to take the default 30% of the right-wing vote as that will go to Tory mostly without Ford ^

 

[animatronic]

Thing is Keesmaat to have any shot, Ford has to take the default 30% of the right-wing vote as that will go to Tory mostly without Ford ^

You are assuming Ford doesn't win the PC Leadership

 

[TheTigerMaster]

As for Keesmaat, she's up to something. Today she joked about pulling a Doug Ford and borrowing someone's basement for "an announcement".

Idk, I think you're reading a bit too much into some banter. And didn't she already say she wasn't running?

She's been building up a public profile for some reason and it's not to go back to working anonymously in the private sector

If I recall correctly, she's teaching at the University of Toronto.

For her to run a campaign she's going to need financial backing and manpower. Until we hear whispers of her putting together a campaign team or funding, I'm going to assume she's not running. And time is ticking, so if she is indeed running, we should imminently be hearing credible rumours about it.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I'd vote for Keesmaat, probably. I'd have to hear her stance on the lack of decent pubs in Mimico, but I'm sure she'd agree with me on that particular issue.

Thing is Keesmaat to have any shot, Ford has to take the default 30% of the right-wing vote as that will go to Tory mostly without Ford ^

I'm not sure if Keesmaat has much appeal at all outside the "downtown elitist" crowd. She might very well end up as 2018's Olivia Chow, especially because people will be motivated to vote for Tory to keep ford out of office. I believe her chances would be a lot better in 2022, when there should be no Tory incumbency and no Ford.

 

[SunriseChampion]

That's fine. My votes almost always go to someone who has no chance of winning. I just want good ideas strewn about in the public sphere so I have someone who represents my voice to vote for and so that said good policy ideas are out there. For example, I voted for Ari Goldkind the last time around.

 

[MetroMan]

If I recall correctly, she's teaching at the University of Toronto.

That didn’t prevent Olivia Chow from running. She had just gotten a job teaching at Ryerson the year of the election.

 

[Videodrome]

Who on the centre-left would you want to take on Tory?

 

[TheTigerMaster]

That didn’t prevent Olivia Chow from running. She had just gotten a job teaching at Ryerson the year of the election.

I mentioned Keesmaat’s U of T gig because you were questioning why she hadn’t picked up a private sector job. She wouldn’t need one with her position job at U of T

 

[MetroMan]

I mentioned Keesmaat’s U of T gig because you were questioning why she hadn’t picked up a private sector job. She wouldn’t need one with her position job at U of T

I'm wondering why she's working so hard to create such a public profile if all she has wants to do is withdraw to the private sector.

She's far more active in the media than she ever was, criticizing Tory's positions, producing a professionally produced podcast. It really looks like she's running already but isn't ready to announce.

Regarding your point that we'd soon hear about it if the organization starts coming together, unlike past elections that started in January, this one only registers candidates in May. There's plenty of time to agree to work with the left's political machine, hire staff, etc. Note that nobody else on the left has leaked either. I find it hard to believe that nobody is going to run on the left.

 

[Videodrome]

Doug appears to be out of the race now, as he is seeking the nomination for Etobicoke North. That makes things very interesting.