@Toareafan
I believe we argued about this a few months ago.
We may have.
I don't actually disagree with you - the Jays attendance has been low. But there is nothing unusual about an MLB team drawing poor crowds when it's been in a prolonged playoff drought. For example, the Yankees drew 21K a game in 92, the last time they were uncompetitive (
http://tinyurl.com/67yr9tf). The Phillies drew in the low 20ks ten years ago, before their new stadium and before they got competitive (
http://tinyurl.com/7nrhy5a).
Baseball attendance took a major leap in the mid-90s.....in large part because of the Jays. When I was growing up (hate to sound like an old guy) reaching the 1million mark in attendance was seen as sign of success. Through the 80's that "success mark" shifted to 2 million and up.
So that 92 Yankee figure is only partly due to lack of success and partly because that is what baseball attendance was. I believe the Jays were the first team to reach 4 million in attendance (at least that is what the little souvenir they gave us the night they reached that mark said that night).
So I hate to sound "selective" in my sample testing but current Jays attendance marks should really only be compared to other cities in the majors since the mid-90s as that is the market they are operating/relevant in.
I'm sure if you look through ESPN you can find examples that are exceptions to that, but I can assure you (as a seriously hardcore MLB fan) there is a general strong correlation between long periods without a playoff race and poor attendance. (With the exception of a new stadium, or certain teams with incredible, Leaf-like support such as the Red Sox and Cubs).
The support for the Jays is neither surprising nor unusual in light of 19 years without a playoff race. As they get better, their numbers will improve. Not 50k a game again, you're right.
Your right, the problem with comparing attendances is that no one factor affects them in isolation. So, yes, you would expect dips to occur when perfromance is poor but other factors like the size of the market, the size of the corporate community and the location/quality of the stadium come into play. I think we have to be honest, though, and evaluate support for the Jays since those great days as pretty disappointing. While they have not made the playoffs in 19 years, I think it is overstating to say they have not been in playoff contention at all during those years. There was, at least, one year when they were in the wildcard hunt and finished 3rd in that race.
You may have guessed that I am a bit of an attendance/stat geek.....the first time I recall concluding that baseball was probably in a bit of trouble in this city was when they signed Roger Clemens. That year I monitored Jays attendance on games he pitched versus games he did not pitch. The theory I was working on was...."here is a team that is trying to recapture their glory days by signing the best (at the time) pitcher in baseball....really making a splash with the cash to bring the fans back." Interesting it was a starting pitcher because you could really isolate the impact he had on attendance because it was 1 out of every 4/5 days and his scheduled starts were known well in advance. I don't have the numbers in front of me but I recall there was a slight enough difference in Jays attendance on his starts that you really could call it statistcally irrelevant. What that tells you is that sports fans either were not paying enough attention to the Jays to notice when he was starting
or they did not care. Not sure which is worse, but neither could be seen as encouragement to management to spend big to draw the fans home. Clemens turned out to be a success on the field (added to Pat Hentgen's earlier CY Young award to make the trophy Blue Jay property for 3 straight years) but did little for them at the box office.
I have been weirdly fascinated by Jays attendance for some time. I don't think they are in any danger of leaving town/folding (their stadium ownership and tv deals/owners makes sense of the business elsewhere) but as far as a baseball market/town I have concluded Toronto is probably a middling to slightly below average town and that the early years of the dome combined with the World Series wins were the perfect storm that created a statistical blip in their attendance. I think they would do well to get back to a long term average of 30k per game (and they are far from that now).
Anyway - I'm only making that distinction because the topic is a 2nd GTA NHL team, and someone suggested that the recent low Jays attendance could be an indicator that Toronto might be 'tapped out' for sports because of that.
My point is - the Jays recent poor attendance is a reflection of the team's lack of a postseason pursuit. It does not indicate that Toronto is already 'tapped out' for sports or something like that. Many smaller sized cities in the US have 4 teams in the 'big 4' plus college, MLS etc. Look at cities like Denver (2.5 mil METRO - 4 teams in big 4), or Minneapolis (3.3 mil METRO, 3 teams in big 4). I know we have the Argos, but as I said most of these cities have college sports programs that draw similar numbers or better than the Argos do here.
I think there is no association/correlation between Jays attendance and the success (or lack thereof) that a second NHL team would have in Markham (or anywhere else in the GTA). I think there are entirely different issues at play for the NHL here than face baseball (or any other sport). I think you could make a go of it with a second team in the GTA but I doubt they would be any better than a 15th - 20th place team in terms of revenue potential...so whether it happens will depend, largely, on what the price of entry is relative to that revenue standing.
