Toronto Crosstown LRT | ?m | ?s | Metrolinx | Arcadis

[sixrings]

Well Im thankful its in the plans. Its going to be hard for Tory to go from heavy rail, to lrt, to BRT like some people here would like. If the DRL was completely planned right now I might agree but lets face facts the DRL isnt going to start construction until after 2020 and that is an optimistic time line. Things move so slow which is why I like LRT which can be constructed and funded much faster.

 

[BurlOak]

I won't say money is no object, but it is not a big concern. ECLRT elevated to the airport is $1.5B to 2B. ECLRT east elevated is $0.5B to$1B extra. SRT to Malvern is $2B. Sheppard Subway is $3.5B to STC and $1.5B to Downsview.

We get $0.3B from SELRT and $0.7B from Scarborough subway from the Feds. Plus another $1.5B from the province and $1B city money for Scarborough Subway and $2.5B from the Feds for SmartTrack.

Thus this plan costs $9B to $10B minus the $6B that no longer needs to be spent. Thus we need 3.5B, which is less than the City and Province would have had to spend on SmartTrack.

or put another way, the province has said they would fund DRL to Danforth and the $1.5B that the above was less than SmartTrack could be used to extend it to Eglinton.

It is obvious that for SmartTrack money, we could have had a complete transit solution.

 

[Rainforest]

Ehh... This extension will probably cost between a billion and $1.5 Billion. That's a lot of money. I couldn't support that if it'd move something low like 2,000 ppphpd.

What I could stand behind, if there is low usage, is an Eglinton West BRT. The wonderful thing about this is that it would be cheaper than the LRT and should be just as fast. This is because, for the most part, people using the Eglinton West corridor would be transferring from bus routes. With the BRT these bus routes could now run along the BRT straight to Mt. Dennis Station, where riders could transfer to the ECLRT.

Regardless of if a BRT or LRT is selected, commuters would have the same amount of transfers. The difference in downtown-bound commute times between BRT and LRT should be negligible. In fact, the BRT might be faster because shorter headways would be needed to accommodate lower capacity vehicles moving the same amount of people. This means that the wait time would be shorter for the bus than an LRT.

So we'd get just as fast commute times, while saving maybe billion dollars that could be used for something more impactful like DRL

The airport is not a big trip generator, as seen in the ECLRT Environmental Assessment.

I hear what you are saying. But still have a number of concerns with this approach:

1) I doubt that Jane is the boundary after which the usage can drop dramatically. In fact, Mt Dennis is a mostly low-rise area today (perhaps will add density once the LRT opens), and the Jane & Eglinton intersection is located in the flats and surrounded by parks and golf courses; it doesn't have any density and never will. In contrast, you can find some highrises in the Eglinton / Kipling, Eglinton / Lloyd Manor, and Eglinton / Royal York areas.

Most likely, the ridership does not drop dramatically at Jane, but rather goes down slowly.

2) Re-routing the Kipling, Islington etc buses to Mt Dennis will complicate the route structure. You still need some buses to provide service south of Eglinton.

3) If our plan is to make the transfer at Mt Dennis permanent, then we could as well build subway under Eglinton. The tunneled section would be no more expensive than the LRT tunnel.

Part of the appeal of LRT is that they are cheaper to extend and thus there is no need to terminate the line before it reaches the municipal border.

 

[nfitz]

There is always an opportunity cost of spending $1.5 billion on Eglinton west of Mount Dennis, and there are other projects after the DRL that would provide greater benefit than this line.

When Metrolinx deferred the connection from Mount Dennis to Pearson to an unfunded Phase 2, back in 2010, the priced the connection to Renforth at $467 million. Hard to see why it need be $1.5 billion now.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

1) I doubt that Jane is the boundary after which the usage can drop dramatically. In fact, Mt Dennis is a mostly low-rise area today (perhaps will add density once the LRT opens), and the Jane & Eglinton intersection is located in the flats and surrounded by parks and golf courses; it doesn't have any density and never will. In contrast, you can find some highrises in the Eglinton / Kipling, Eglinton / Lloyd Manor, and Eglinton / Royal York areas.

Most likely, the ridership does not drop dramatically at Jane, but rather goes down slowly.

This isn't something we have to guess about.

Eastbound at peak hour, ridership at jane is 2,900 pphpd. This section between Mt. Dennis and Jane, less than 1 km, is the only section of the line that is solidly in LRT technology.

Moving west to Scarlett Rd, 2 km from Mt. Dennis, ridership drops to 2,100, which is the approaching the lowest I personally would support building an LRT, and is the lowest the TTC recommends.

So in a 2 km stretch, this LRT loses nearly 1/3 of it's ridership.

Continuing on to Royal York, 3 km from Mt. Dennis, ridership drops to 1,700 pphpd, well below acceptable demand for an LRT. It's lost 41% of it's ridership in a 3 km stretch, only 23% of the proposed extension length.

Moving on to Widdecombe, 6 km from Mt. Dennis and well below half the distance of the proposed extension, ridership plummets to 900 pphpd, which isn't anywhere near LRT territory.

Now I know someone will probably mention that transit lines always lose ridership the further you are from peak point; we can't expect everywhere to be above the threshold. That's true, but that makes ECLRT unique is how rapidly the ridership drops. Of the proposed 13 km extension, only 2 km (14%) of the line is in an acceptable range for LRT ridership (about 2,000 pphpd). This isn't like other lines that might have a significant part of the line is within acceptable demand ranges.

Typically I'd support extending the LRT to Jane or Scarlett, but the issue with that is that it would add an additional transfer for commuters going to RER at Mt Dennis. It's better to terminate at Mt. Dennis and have the busses go straight to that station, eliminating a transfer.

2) Re-routing the Kipling, Islington etc buses to Mt Dennis will complicate the route structure. You still need some buses to provide service south of Eglinton.

Of course. I figure a third to a half of those busses might terminate at Mt. Dennis

 

[TheTigerMaster]

When Metrolinx deferred the connection from Mount Dennis to Pearson to an unfunded Phase 2, back in 2010, the priced the connection to Renforth at $467 million. Hard to see why it need be $1.5 billion now.

I'm surprised it's so low, and I'm puzzled to understand how it could be that low

Looking at the Crosstown EA, the distance of the preferred alignment between Mt Dennis and Pearson was more than 12 km. This distance does not include the price of the interface with Pearson, which might include an overpass. The price of the Finch West LRT is $90 million/km in 2008 . That results in $1.1 Billion for this extension. Inflation should add $200M to 300M to that.

The ECLRT extension won't require a new MSF, so that cost needs to be subtracted. How much would the MSF cost? Leslie Barns was estimated at $350 Million and went up to $500 Million because of overruns. SELRT's MSF is $333 Million. I haven't seen a price for ECLRT's.

Also need to factor in the Pearson interface, which wasn't studied and the cost of new LRVs. How much that would cost is anybody's guess. All this considered, I'd guesstimate about $1 Billion on the low end, $1.5 on the high

Edit: the low dollar would increase the price as well.

 

[Steve X]

The commuting demand in Etobicoke is different. It's faster to commute to the Bloor Danforth Subway than to travel across the city to the Spadina Line.

The demands in the above figure makes a lot of sense. We can see that the 32 Eglinton West route only has the 32A branch west of Jane. The same goes for the 52 Lawrence West west of Weston Rd. Eglinton becomes sort of an at-grade expressway west of Jane instead of the commercial strip road. Eglinton in Etobicoke just looks different than in the old borough of York.

The 45 Kipling or 37 Islington bus takes about 10-12 minutes from Eglinton oppose to 16-20 min. from with the 35/195 Jane and 20-25 min. with the 41 Keele and 89 Weston Rd. The LRT won't attract a lot of riders to transfer unless it takes the same amount of time as going to the Bloor subway stations. There is a chance that capacity constraints on the Yonge Line might change commuting patterns. Riders traveling to/from the airport might add to the demand.

 

[sixrings]

I am curious to see the ridership numbers for all of TC. The east portion of Eglinton, Finch and Sheppard. Those townhouses are not the only thing on Eglinton being developed. Here is an additional 5 towers (http://urbantoronto.ca/forum/threads/4000-eglinton-ave-w-33s-30s-27s-24s-18s.24813/) Pretty sure once the LRT comes all that land to the north of Eglinton will be sold and redeveloped. So whatever those numbers were may need to be readjusted for what is happening today and what will happen tomorrow. Steve Munro never has said that this part of Eglinton was the waste of money some are pointing it out to be.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Eglinton West is better than this subway (which should have been ended at York U) but we should push for it now. We need a second crosstown. We can't have people keep going down to bloor every single time.

 

[nfitz]

I'm surprised it's so low, and I'm puzzled to understand how it could be that low

Looking at the Crosstown EA, the distance of the preferred alignment between Mt Dennis and Pearson was more than 12 km. This distance does not include the price of the interface with Pearson, which might include an overpass. The price of the Finch West LRT is $90 million/km in 2008 . That results in $1.1 Billion for this extension. Inflation should add $200M to 300M to that.

The ECLRT extension won't require a new MSF, so that cost needs to be subtracted. How much would the MSF cost? Leslie Barns was estimated at $350 Million and went up to $500 Million because of overruns. SELRT's MSF is $333 Million. I haven't seen a price for ECLRT's.

Also need to factor in the Pearson interface, which wasn't studied and the cost of new LRVs. How much that would cost is anybody's guess. All this considered, I'd guesstimate about $1 Billion on the low end, $1.5 on the high.

The $467 million was for less than 8 km from Jane to Renforth (they later moved the terminus back to Mount Dennis, so that would add another kilometre). No car house, no complex entry to Pearson.

Renforth to Pearson is another issue, but SmartTrack was proposed to terminate at Renforth, not Pearson. Being almost entirely (and perhaps totally) in Mississauga, it's not something the City of Toronto will be funding.

 

[crs1026]

The 45 Kipling or 37 Islington bus takes about 10-12 minutes from Eglinton oppose to 16-20 min. from with the 35/195 Jane and 20-25 min. with the 41 Keele and 89 Weston Rd. The LRT won't attract a lot of riders to transfer unless it takes the same amount of time as going to the Bloor subway stations. There is a chance that capacity constraints on the Yonge Line might change commuting patterns. Riders traveling to/from the airport might add to the demand.

I agree that it's a short trip from Eglinton to Bloor today, but anyone coming from Rexdale or beyond has a long ride down. Kipling is about to get ugly, when Six points becomes a flat intersection and more condos go up. Same with Royal York, which is two lanes and about to see development at Humbertown and along Dundas. Travel times will get longer.

If ST/RER came to Islington - not a stretch, since the fourth track is already in place Rogers to Nickle and Weston Road to Islington, requiring only a short addition Nickle to Weston Road, you'd pull all the Rexdale to Bloor ridership onto ST. Put an express bus on Dixon to RER/ST, and you have mitigated the need for ECLRT to go to the airport at all. Let Miway figure out Renforth to the Airport. You'd want to accelerate the last bit of the Mississauga busway to Renforth.

I wonder how much the cost went up when Toronto sold the land that could have allowed an off-road alignment. If the extension goes ahead, I hope they really explore how to not utilise a center of road design - nothing will kill LRT in this city like building more streetcar type trackage that chokes auto traffic. Eglinton West has this risk.

- Paul

 

[sixrings]

Whatever happened to building a network. I miss transit city

 

[W. K. Lis]

Two reasons why many passengers do not board the 32A Eglinton West from Etobicoke, unless they have to, at the moment. One, construction and traffic congestion on Eglinton. Two, no express bus on Eglinton West. Instead, they board the southbound buses to get to the 2 Bloor-Danforth line. Unfortunately, getting a seat on the 1 Yonge-University subway transfer would be difficult doing so at St. George Station.

Once they open the first phase of the Crosstown LRT, there will be many people boarding the feeder buses to the LRT. Even more when the extension opens. However, the northern areas of Etobicoke may start to use the Finch West LRT more, when that line opens. More chance of getting a seat on the Spadina leg of the 1 Yonge-University line at the Finch West Station (or whatever name they will call it on the Finch West LRT).

 

[crs1026]

I know why people want a TTC rail connection to the airport, but it needs to be understood that the kind of travel that happens at airports are not congruent with mass transit systems. A subway/LRT connection to Pearson is more symbolism than it is sound planning.

Hmmm. I wonder if Heathrow, Charles De Gaulle, Midway, O'Hare, Leonardo da Vinci, etc, etc would endorse this statement.

I can agree that air travellers who live in the dense population area around Yonge/Eglinton probably aren't eager to get on a tram just yet, even if it goes all the way versus dumping them off at Mount Dennis to transfer to a bus. For now, anyways. But the 192 from Kipling sure pulls in good ridership.

The vexing thing for Toronto is - if we start at the Airport and plan eastwards, where should a mass transit system aim to maximise ridership, take the most cars off the roads, and do the most good? Would a Finch LRT extension do better than Eglinton? Would a link to Kipling/Bloor (as envisioned decades ago) do better still? I really don't have a good answer to this one. Do we want to take a billion dollars and place a bet? If we picked on and built, would they come?

The key question is, how much do we care. How high would we place this billion dollar bet in our infrastructure bucket list?

As we discuss northwest Etobicoke, we seem to be assuming that the peak ridership (which is what we base decisions for rail transit on) consists of people travelling to downtown. So we are analysing whether we can get them to the Spadina line versus the Bloor line. I think we may be going in the wrong direction here. Certainly, looking at the non-dense suburban areas close to Eglinton, there are many upper middle class people there who work downtown. But the people who are on the bus coming from the north end are more likely heading to other employment areas elsewhere.

For the west end, especially north of Eglinton, the 'network' goal may be more valid than the 'bring more people downtown' goal.

Do we have any actual data on this?

- Paul

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Hmmm. I wonder if Heathrow, Charles De Gaulle, Midway, O'Hare, Leonardo da Vinci, etc, etc would endorse this statement.

I can agree that air travellers who live in the dense population area around Yonge/Eglinton probably aren't eager to get on a tram just yet, even if it goes all the way versus dumping them off at Mount Dennis to transfer to a bus. For now, anyways. But the 192 from Kipling sure pulls in good ridership.

The vexing thing for Toronto is - if we start at the Airport and plan eastwards, where should a mass transit system aim to maximise ridership, take the most cars off the roads, and do the most good? Would a Finch LRT extension do better than Eglinton? Would a link to Kipling/Bloor (as envisioned decades ago) do better still? I really don't have a good answer to this one. Do we want to take a billion dollars and place a bet? If we picked on and built, would they come?

The key question is, how much do we care. How high would we place this billion dollar bet in our infrastructure bucket list?

As we discuss northwest Etobicoke, we seem to be assuming that the peak ridership (which is what we base decisions for rail transit on) consists of people travelling to downtown. So we are analysing whether we can get them to the Spadina line versus the Bloor line. I think we may be going in the wrong direction here. Certainly, looking at the non-dense suburban areas close to Eglinton, there are many upper middle class people there who work downtown. But the people who are on the bus coming from the north end are more likely heading to other employment areas elsewhere.

For the west end, especially north of Eglinton, the 'network' goal may be more valid than the 'bring more people downtown' goal.

Do we have any actual data on this?

- Paul

Actual data on what exactly?

As was discussed before, the EA had zero people travelling from Pearson airport via ECLRT at peak hour. I doubt Finch would have been any better since there are fewer destinations along Finch than Eglinton.