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Toronto Centre & York Centre Byelections, 2020

I'm upset because the people who live here are always being taken for granted by the Liberals. They may be heavy hitters in Ottawa, but they don't matter to the people they're supposed to represent.

You can go back in my post history a decade. I said this about Liberal ridings in the 416. Until there are more actual swingy ridings inside the 416, the city won't be taken seriously.
 
You can go back in my post history a decade. I said this about Liberal ridings in the 416. Until there are more actual swingy ridings inside the 416, the city won't be taken seriously.
The problem is that there is even the concept of certain ridings that are swing ridings and worth paying attention to and all the others can be taken for granted. Not going to be fixed without some sort of electoral reform as this problem is inherent in FPTP and similar systems.
 
Given how quickly the Liberals appointed a “star” candidate and called a byelection only weeks after Morneau’s “resignation,” it just seems so crass and opportunistic.

There was no time given to the Greens to conclude their leadership campaign, with two strong leadership hopefuls with ties to Toronto Centre, nor was there much time for the NDP and Conservatives to hold proper, democratic nominations, especially with a pandemic.

Now the Liberals have pit a handpicked media darling against the new Green Party leader.
 
These are both Liberal/NDP contests, right? Greens and Conservatives as spoilers.
 
These are both Liberal/NDP contests, right? Greens and Conservatives as spoilers.

You ask, I answer:

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I must have been thinking of other ridings as both have been solidly Liberal for a long time. There was a period around 2010 when the NDP was competitive in Toronto Centre. Of course, they have had a high profile (shadow) cabinet member in the seat since the 90s. York Centre is more a Lib/Conservative race.
 
These are both Liberal/NDP contests, right? Greens and Conservatives as spoilers.

As mentioned, not York Centre; but Toronto Centre ordinarily/technically would be insofar as it's rock bottom for CPC in Toronto (perception of the Cons as gay/poor/urban-unfriendly doesn't help; neither does the fact that Rosedale was distributed away in 2015), and the NDP hold it provincially. But Annamie-Paul-as-Green-leader throws an added twist to things.

For it to *truly* be competitive for the NDP has historically depended upon broader weak-Lib-strong-NDP spot circumstances (like 2011 federally, and 2018 provincially--and it's *possible* that the latter could be more enduring than a one-off).
 
I would be stunned if the Liberals lost Toronto Centre. They lost the seat provincially due to the once in a generation Wynne government collapse. In contrast, Trudeau is still very popular.

I suspect the Liberals are the favorites in York Centre. It is an incredibly diverse riding, with large blocs of Jewish, Filipino, Russian and Black voters.
 
I would be stunned if the Liberals lost Toronto Centre. They lost the seat provincially due to the once in a generation Wynne government collapse. In contrast, Trudeau is still very popular.

I suspect the Liberals are the favorites in York Centre. It is an incredibly diverse riding, with large blocs of Jewish, Filipino, Russian and Black voters.

I think the issue they will have is many may wantt to get behind the new leader of the Greens.
 
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Paul is calling for the PM to suspect the by-elections due to Covid and defer the vote to a later date.

To my surprise, honestly, this power does in fact exist in the Elections Act, and has since 1952; though apparently no one can recall it ever having been used.

 

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