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cdl42
Guest
Interesting results in that poll, Ganj.
I have bolded numbers that have haven't changed (1% or less) from the 2004 election.
Red are figures that have declined by more than 1%.
Green are figures that have increased by more than 1%.
Voting plans by region today
ROC - Rest of Canada (Everywhere except Quebec)
Conservative, Liberal, NDP, Green Party
QUE: 5%, 30%, 9%, 6%, Bloc 50%
ROC: 36%, 37%, 18%, 8%
ONT: 31%, 44%, 18%, 7%
West: 42%, 25%, 20%, 12%
Voting plans by region in 2004 election                                
QUE: 9%, 34%, 5%, 3%, Bloc 49%
ROC: 37%, 38%, 19%, 5%
ONT: 32%, 45%, 18%, 4%
West: 45%, 28%, 21%, 4%
No point in mentioning the well-known differences between polls and actual elections. However, it is interesting to note that the Cons have decreased in popularity in the West and how well the Greens have been doing in recent polls (safe standby for undecideds or real support?). What I find most amazing of all is how little has changed. For all the hubbub, Ontario and ROC numbers basically haven't changed.
I have bolded numbers that have haven't changed (1% or less) from the 2004 election.
Red are figures that have declined by more than 1%.
Green are figures that have increased by more than 1%.
Voting plans by region today
ROC - Rest of Canada (Everywhere except Quebec)
Conservative, Liberal, NDP, Green Party
QUE: 5%, 30%, 9%, 6%, Bloc 50%
ROC: 36%, 37%, 18%, 8%
ONT: 31%, 44%, 18%, 7%
West: 42%, 25%, 20%, 12%
Voting plans by region in 2004 election                                
QUE: 9%, 34%, 5%, 3%, Bloc 49%
ROC: 37%, 38%, 19%, 5%
ONT: 32%, 45%, 18%, 4%
West: 45%, 28%, 21%, 4%
No point in mentioning the well-known differences between polls and actual elections. However, it is interesting to note that the Cons have decreased in popularity in the West and how well the Greens have been doing in recent polls (safe standby for undecideds or real support?). What I find most amazing of all is how little has changed. For all the hubbub, Ontario and ROC numbers basically haven't changed.
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Antiloop33rpm
Guest
Very interesting poll. Im not surprised that little has changed really. Yes there has been lots of media attention in regards to the Gomery Commision, but one thing I always keep in mind is that this is hardly a new trend in the Liberal party. Lets not forget the $1 billion HRDC boondoggle, and of course the money that was being sent up to Shawinagan (sp?). The Gomery Commision has done a lot of good because it actually investigated and has put into public record many of the negligent and criminal practices that took place, but really, its just one of many. In light of the history of more than a decade of Liberal rule, it shouldnt be much of a surprise that this hasnt really changed much since nothing has ever really changed.
The Green Party is interesting. In the last few years they have really gone from a marginal fringe party to the point where this could be the election that may result in a seat or two for them. Even if they were to increase their support to 6 or 7% of the popular vote, that will translate into a very strong sign that this party is beginning to make an impact on federal politics. And if you look at the polls, the NDP is staying essentially equal while the Greens seem to making ground on Conservative and Liberal loses.
And again, who knows until election day is actually here, but, I think one of the interesting things to watch in this election is popular vote and how it translates into seats. If the NDP and Green continue to increase their popular support, yet still see that actually translate into a totally unrepresentative number of seats, then I can see a lot of debate being sparked around that issue.
The Green Party is interesting. In the last few years they have really gone from a marginal fringe party to the point where this could be the election that may result in a seat or two for them. Even if they were to increase their support to 6 or 7% of the popular vote, that will translate into a very strong sign that this party is beginning to make an impact on federal politics. And if you look at the polls, the NDP is staying essentially equal while the Greens seem to making ground on Conservative and Liberal loses.
And again, who knows until election day is actually here, but, I think one of the interesting things to watch in this election is popular vote and how it translates into seats. If the NDP and Green continue to increase their popular support, yet still see that actually translate into a totally unrepresentative number of seats, then I can see a lot of debate being sparked around that issue.
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adma
Guest
Despite these momentarily high "parked" polls, my inkling is that, consistent w/earlier patterns (federally and provincially), the Greens'll recede from dizzying heights come election day, w/support that, even if higher than the typical case a few years ago, is still too diffuse to win seats.
Indeed, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if they lose a little ground to the NDP this time--shades of the last BC election?
Indeed, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if they lose a little ground to the NDP this time--shades of the last BC election?
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spmarshall
Guest
I'm hoping some of those tight Tory-NDP races in Saskatchewan and BC go the other way this time - such as that bonehead Grewal's riding, and maybe Nystrom's riding. Oshawa was one of these too.
I'd really like to see Ianno fall to the NDP, given how useless he is, but I'm expecting he'd win again. Even less likely, I'd love to see Volpe gone.
Gomery doesn't anger me too much. Most of the people involved are gone anyway, and there have been bigger scandals before. That's not to say that the Liberals aren't arrogant (witness Martin's unwillingness to compromise with Layton), but anything but a Lib minority with the Dippers with the balance of power (I could live, but not be happy with a Lib majority) would be a scary prospect.
I'd really like to see Ianno fall to the NDP, given how useless he is, but I'm expecting he'd win again. Even less likely, I'd love to see Volpe gone.
Gomery doesn't anger me too much. Most of the people involved are gone anyway, and there have been bigger scandals before. That's not to say that the Liberals aren't arrogant (witness Martin's unwillingness to compromise with Layton), but anything but a Lib minority with the Dippers with the balance of power (I could live, but not be happy with a Lib majority) would be a scary prospect.
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spasongs
Guest
I am afraid no matter how many F'd up things the liberals do, a large number of Ontarians will only vote liberal. Most of my Itallian friends seem to be the same way. There Dad came in Liberal, and so they stay liberal, I have never understood that. My parents vote diff than me, and that is fine.
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EnviroTO
Guest
I think Green support will increase from the previous election but whether it will amount to a seat or not is the question. It will all depend on BC I guess.
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mpolo2
Guest
My impression is that aside from NDP supporters, the electorate is not terribly happy with minority governments (if for no other reason than the constant threat of election and the associated uber-politicing) - that being the case I wonder if the upcoming election will see a last minute wave to the party in the lead just so as to avoid having to do it all over again in 6 months.
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blixa442
Guest
I'm voting for the Bloc. That said, we're likely to see a replica of the parliament we have right now.
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EnviroTO
Guest
I wonder if the upcoming election will see a last minute wave to the party in the lead just so as to avoid having to do it all over again in 6 months.
If true it would favour the Liberals being the party in the middle.