The Coming Disruption of Transport

[TheTigerMaster]

The federal government will have a role as well since it is the level where motor vehicle safety standards are established, which covers aspects such a equipment, occupant safety, etc. Some of the really small concept vehicles I have seen images of would likely have difficulty meeting reasonable standards for general production vehicles. The provinces and municipalities get to government roads and vehicle movement and conduct but the feds set the standards for the vehicles themselves. Given the comparative size of our two markets, much of that will likely involve collaboration with the US.

One area I think is emerging is the collision survivability of battery packs. Police forces are currently facing towing companies who are unwilling to tow and store collision damage EVs because of the potential for fire. Many insurance companies are dictating a 15m separation in storage compounds. since most tow companies can't accommodate that, they are simply refusing to tow them.

It is emerging in the southern States after the recent hurricanes that EVs immersed in salt water can have a tendency to randomly burst into flame. Obviously not a problem for aroun dhere, but it highlights the emerging issues with high-energy density electrical systems.

Totally agree with your concerns. However, I hope the government doesn't over-regulate these vehicles. E-mobility devices can come in a huge range of forms. We should allow a certain degree of experimentation to see what's best. I'm really excited to see what weird and whacky personal mobility devices we'll see on our streets.

Not saying something like this is appropriate for public roads (it's definitely not), but just imagine the kinds of vehicles we can have thanks to the flexibility of this technology. With vehicles this affordable, small and flexible, we might soon come to regard our modern-day ICE and EV cars as clunky 20th century relics

 

[TheTigerMaster]

After months of sky-high gas prices, e-scooters cruise to popularity in Toronto​

The City is gonna continue to pretend they have the power to ban these things, until the situation on our roads becomes untenable. Sticking their heads in the sand, just like the did during the rise of ridesharing (Uber)

I agree - this trend is unstoppable. The fact that these devices make things difficult for bureaucrats is no reason to ban them. The hodgepodge of municipal policies is also wrongheaded.

The ultimate irony - the authorities disapprove because their are "safety concerns", so they'd prefer that people drove their cars instead. No safety concerns there, apparently.

- Paul

I think people will be surprised by how suddenly our modal split will shift. Technological shifts often happen slowly, until they happen very quickly.

On that note, lets take a look at the growth curve of e-scooters vs ride hailing, car sharing and bike sharing:

It's not hard to see what a transformation this could trigger in our cities if this growth is sustainable. And frankly, Toronto is in a better position than most cities to adopt this technology, so it's growth might be even more aggressive here

This is from EY's report on micromobility adoption: ey-micromobility-moving-cities-into-a-sustainable-future.pdf

 

[lenaitch]

Totally agree with your concerns. However, I hope the government doesn't over-regulate these vehicles. E-mobility devices can come in a huge range of forms. We should allow a certain degree of experimentation to see what's best. I'm really excited to see what weird and whacky personal mobility devices we'll see on our streets.

Not saying something like this is appropriate for public roads (it's definitely not), but just imagine the kinds of vehicles we can have thanks to the flexibility of this technology. With vehicles this affordable, small and flexible, we might soon come to regard our modern-day ICE and EV cars as clunky 20th century relics

No doubt the government will bend to industry lobbying; so there's that. At the provincial level, regulations under the HTA allow for 'interim' use of certain vehicle types, either in design or usage. Three-wheeled motorcycles (BRP Spyder, et al) are currently covered under special regulations, and they are even testing on-road use of golf carts. I don't know specifically how flexible the federal legislation is.

I can understand their caution. There is enough unregulated garbage available from off-shore via online websites.

The reality, as in so many things, is that we will largely follow the US lead. The State of California is a larger market than all of Canada. We might have some tweaks (e.g. daytime running lights) but the adaptation to comply with our regs had better be a simple plug-in or something equally inexpensive and easy or manufacturers will simply shut us out.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Electric scooter ban increased Atlanta congestion by 10%

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I just took note of how Google Maps doesn’t include time looking for parking in their travel time estimates. That can make driving look more competitive than it really is.

For example, I was just looking at some trip options to get downtown. Google estimated 25 mins for driving, vs 35 mins for transit. What Google didn‘t tell me is that I’d have to spend 5 minutes finding parking, and another 5 minutes walking to my destination. So Google Maps underestimated the total trip time by 40%, which makes transit seem less competitive than it really is.

Think of what that must do to people’s perceptions of transit and other alternative transport. How many thousands of people are choosing to drive based on this information?

 

[TRONto]

I just took note of how Google Maps doesn’t include time looking for parking in their travel time estimates. That can make driving look more competitive than it really is.

For example, I was just looking at some trip options to get downtown. Google estimated 25 mins for driving, vs 35 mins for transit. What Google didn‘t tell me is that I’d have to spend 5 minutes finding parking, and another 5 minutes walking to my destination. So Google Maps underestimated the total trip time by 40%, which makes transit seem less competitive than it really is.

Think of what that must do to people’s perceptions of transit and other alternative transport. How many thousands of people are choosing to drive based on this information?

Completely agree with this. I add another few minutes when I compare against driving time. They don't include the time for actually getting in the car and settling in, especially if you have kids and gotta get them in their car seats, etc. That can be another 10 minutes right there. Then, like you said, gotta find parking, get settled and get out of the car (couple more minutes if including kids) and actually walk to your destination.

 

[lenaitch]

What system can account for every individual variable? If you take transit, have kids and don't live exactly at a transit point, how can it account for the time to load them into a stroller and hike to the stop. If that makes you a split second late and have to wait for the next train or bus, is that the system's fault? At the other end, do "transit times" account for any distance beyond the stop, including up multiple floors?

When the difference is 5 or ten minutes one way or the other, I wonder how many people are swayed.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

What system can account for every individual variable?

The system would account for the variables that it’s designed to account for.

Uber already has technology that can see how long it takes customers to walk to or from vehicles when starting or ending a trip. The same technique can be modified for general purpose navigation devices.

When the difference is 5 or ten minutes one way or the other, I wonder how many people are swayed.

Me. Just now. I was swayed. Thats why I made the post

I was reaching for my car keys, up until I realized that I hadn’t factored in walking + parking in my travel time estimate.

 

[TRONto]

What system can account for every individual variable? If you take transit, have kids and don't live exactly at a transit point, how can it account for the time to load them into a stroller and hike to the stop. If that makes you a split second late and have to wait for the next train or bus, is that the system's fault? At the other end, do "transit times" account for any distance beyond the stop, including up multiple floors?

When the difference is 5 or ten minutes one way or the other, I wonder how many people are swayed.

The way I use google maps, the transit time is source to destination while the driving time is more like taking a taxi (a self-driving taxi! ). You may not be parking near your actual destination (or even drive around for parking) and that isn't the actual driving experience.

For me it's driving and add at least 10 minutes depending on where I'm going.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Electric scooter ban increased Atlanta congestion by 10%

Paris might be next.

Paris considers electric scooter ban over safety concerns

Paris is considering banning its 15,000 rental electric scooters due to concerns about public safety on the city's sidewalks, but operators are proposing a series of improvements in the hope of getting their licences renewed.

www.reuters.com

 

[desperateAmbassador]

I find it funny how these cities are so concerned about citizen safety when it comes to scooters but utterly indifferent when it comes to the thousands of pedestrian deaths each year from autos. (More relevant for Atlanta than Paris I suppose).

 

[kEiThZ]

Thoughts this would be a more appropriate forum to discuss these than the Politics and Diplomacy forum:

Delaying the SSP by 4 years until 2030 is not a 'small' delay. This is a disruptive change in the auto industry, and the 2020s will be decisive. Trying to slow-roll the change while you have a disruptive competitor like Tesla scaling aggressively is a recipe for disaster. The idea that the legacy OEMs can catch Tesla whenever they feel like getting into the game (feel like they have sufficiently sweated their stranded investments in ICE technology) means they will be too far behind to be competitive on cost, performance, ecosystem, etc.

This issue I take with Tesla fans is that they always seem ready to assume and believe the worst of legacy OEMs while taking almost farcically optimistic projections from Musk et al at face value.

In this discussion we went from, "VW doesn't even have an EV platform so they are doomed", to, "Volkswagen won't have their next gen platform ready so they are doomed.". This is a pronouncement that ignores context completely. For example, Volkswagen's next gen platform (SSP) is targeted to have LVL 4 autonomy. This is higher than Tesla is functionally at today (despite their claims). And it's hardly something necessary to sell cars and arguably something where getting it right is worth the delay. Nor has development stopped on the current platforms (MEB and PPE) with massive investments to boost charging speeds and battery capacity. The idea that any company that doesn't match Tesla's rhetoric (there's a substantial lag lately between what Musk says and delivers)$ is a stretch.

Chinese OEMs will pick over the husks of walking dead legacy OEMs. It has started with Volvo and JLR. As much as I like Mazda, I think they're toast. That would be an easy target to obtain distribution in the west.

I'd have bought this idea a year ago. Now? Not so much. The Chinese will be able to take on chunks of the developing world. They've got leverage there. But there's a lot of markets (particularly in the OECD, but also markets like India) that are growing increasingly hostile to Chinese imports, with more and more trade barriers coming up. It was one thing when the threat was over losing jobs. Post Feb 2022, Chinese EVs are increasingly being looked at by policymakers the same way they see Chinese telecom tech.

So the Chinese will grow market share. Some brands like Mazda may get killed. Complete wipeout of legacy brands? Not likely. Especially in a world that is substantially constrained by battery supply. Every EV built will sell. How it performs relative to others matters far less when there isn't a lot of choice. Heck, a lot of hybrids will sell too, as long as full EVs are out of reach for most of the car buying population.

 

[APTA-2048]

Post Feb 2022, Chinese EVs are increasingly being looked at by policymakers the same way they see Chinese telecom tech.

Somewhat related, but the TTC's BYD electric buses have been off the road since at least August.

Best I can gather from friends who work at the TTC, they're waiting for a critical part from China. I'm not sure how much this affected other BYD customers. Though, I know Longueuil's BYD have barely made it out too.

One BYD made it to Arrow Division for the CUTRIC conference, so maybe they're in the process of resolving the problem.

I don't think the Newmarket factory has built any buses since the TTC's. I heard they bid on the contract for Halifax, but that ended up going to Nova Bus. They didn't put in a bid for Durham Region, which may have had something to do with Durham's specification.

 

[kEiThZ]

Europe is going flat out with carbon border tariffs on Chinese goods:

Imagine what this does to all the highly carbon intensive manufacturing in China, including battery packs and full electric vehicles. I expect more countries to deploy such trade barriers. And I think Chinese OEMs are going to find it hard to bypass these.

 

[afransen]

Thoughts this would be a more appropriate forum to discuss these than the Politics and Diplomacy forum:



This issue I take with Tesla fans is that they always seem ready to assume and believe the worst of legacy OEMs while taking almost farcically optimistic projections from Musk et al at face value.

In this discussion we went from, "VW doesn't even have an EV platform so they are doomed", to, "Volkswagen won't have their next gen platform ready so they are doomed.". This is a pronouncement that ignores context completely. For example, Volkswagen's next gen platform (SSP) is targeted to have LVL 4 autonomy. This is higher than Tesla is functionally at today (despite their claims). And it's hardly something necessary to sell cars and arguably something where getting it right is worth the delay. Nor has development stopped on the current platforms (MEB and PPE) with massive investments to boost charging speeds and battery capacity. The idea that any company that doesn't match Tesla's rhetoric (there's a substantial lag lately between what Musk says and delivers)$ is a stretch.



I'd have bought this idea a year ago. Now? Not so much. The Chinese will be able to take on chunks of the developing world. They've got leverage there. But there's a lot of markets (particularly in the OECD, but also markets like India) that are growing increasingly hostile to Chinese imports, with more and more trade barriers coming up. It was one thing when the threat was over losing jobs. Post Feb 2022, Chinese EVs are increasingly being looked at by policymakers the same way they see Chinese telecom tech.

So the Chinese will grow market share. Some brands like Mazda may get killed. Complete wipeout of legacy brands? Not likely. Especially in a world that is substantially constrained by battery supply. Every EV built will sell. How it performs relative to others matters far less when there isn't a lot of choice. Heck, a lot of hybrids will sell too, as long as full EVs are out of reach for most of the car buying population.

I can't say I entirely disagree with anything here. Musk is definitely too optimistic with timelines for new models/functionality, which I why I don't put a lot of stock in self-driving/level 4 autonomy in the near term. However, it seems like many OEMs are being way too cavalier about EV production. GM only plans to produce 1M EVs in NA by 2025. Tesla is already producing that many. And the legacy OEMs have a history of falling short on electrification plans as well. Musk has been too optimistic on timelines for new models, but he has largely delivered the growth he has talked about for years. So, insofar as they have missed on delivering new models, I think it was strategic as new models weren't required as early as promised to deliver on the growth plan, and there was no surplus battery production to enable more rapid growth. And I have no faith that GM, VW, etc. is going to deliver level 4 autonomy sooner than Tesla. Let's hope VW isn't dismissing it as a possibility until 2030.

I am not sure that China is going to be made a pariah from a global markets standpoint. Maybe the past year has been a paradigm shift in global trade patterns but I am not yet convinced. Carbon adjustments in Europe could just as easily disadvantage Canadian exports as our future CPC government is likely to scrap carbon pricing. Even outside of China, there are emerging players like Vinfast that will be attacking western markets.

Europe forecast to import 800,000 Chinese-built cars by 2025

An influx of Chinese-built electric vehicles could turn Europe into a net importer of cars, PwC says, with a 2025 import surplus of more than 221,000 vehicles.

europe.autonews.com