The Coming Disruption of Transport

[Cambry Ardship]

Batteries have become much cheaper in the past two years.

These ultra-low battery price have major implications for the automotive and power sectors. Battery cells at $50/kWh means the technology to decarbonize most of road transport globally is already here, as opposed to in some future scenario. Pack-level prices for the most-sold battery chemistries have been below the often-referenced $100/kWh benchmark in China since October 2023, and LFP pack prices are now at $75/kWh. At that price, EVs can be priced at or below combustion cars in most vehicle segments, marking a huge shift. China is the world’s largest auto market, and battery-electric vehicles are currently the cheapest drivetrain by average transaction price in the country, even after stripping out mini city cars from the dataset.

The article is well worth a read and lays out good evidence for a huge coming shift in the automotive sector. To compare to a different technological shift almost two decades ago, even though LED screens had drawbacks, once they were able to be produced cheaper than CRTs it only took a few years until they completely dominated the market and made CRTs completely obsolete outside of a few niche applications.

 

[afransen]

A first time EV, vs Tesla which has been making EVs for years and still routinely turns out crap.

If not toyota, then it'll be VW, or BYD or some other manufacturer

If you're anti Tesla, I suggest Hyundai.

 

[afransen]

Batteries have become much cheaper in the past two years.



The article is well worth a read and lays out good evidence for a huge coming shift in the automotive sector. To compare to a different technological shift almost two decades ago, even though LED screens had drawbacks, once they were able to be produced cheaper than CRTs it only took a few years until they completely dominated the market and made CRTs completely obsolete outside of a few niche applications.

Classic S curve seen time and again. Lots of people are in denial, not least legacy automakers.

 

[Admiral Beez]

If you're anti Tesla, I suggest Hyundai.

No. Hyundai's EV batteries are vulnerable to damage. Unlike Tesla's almost-armoured battery box, Hyundai's are exposed.

Classic S surve seen time and again.

What's surve?

Surve - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[evandyk]

Nothing good comes from a market where one manufacturer dominates market share.

I have no brand choice in this race, but there will be better cars and better prices when several manufacturers are putting out EV's that match or better Tesla in quality and functionality

- Paul

Under current trends, it appears that when those cars appear on the North American market in umber, we will tariff the shit out of them so that people don't buy them.

 

[afransen]

No. Hyundai's EV batteries are vulnerable to damage. Unlike Tesla's almost-armoured battery box, Hyundai's are exposed.

What's surve?

Surve - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Tesla is still the best choice, but if people are going to be that political about the car they drive, Hyundai makes decent EVs. The battery issue is more a pricing/service challenge. There is no way they should be charging that much for a replacement pack. I think that price is Hyundai Canada's way of saying "we don't want to deal with this, just buy a new car".

 

[Towered]

Tesla is still the best choice, but if people are going to be that political about the car they drive, Hyundai makes decent EVs. The battery issue is more a pricing/service challenge. There is no way they should be charging that much for a replacement pack. I think that price is Hyundai Canada's way of saying "we don't want to deal with this, just buy a new car".

I'm very curious about their upcoming Ioniq 9.

 

[MisterF]

It’s not all rosy though.

Tesla’s Share of U.S. Electric Car Market Falls Below 50%​

49% market share is still amazing, though a marked decline and perhaps a trend in a now maturing market that will eventually see Tesla as just another car firm.

Clearly the legacy car companies were keeping their powder dry whilst Elon established the EV market and public acceptance, demonstrated the areas of success and failure and identified the opportunities. And now the legacy firms are using their dealer/service networks, established reputations with ICE vehicle owners, and their culture of frequent model refreshes and relaunches to make a jump on Tesla.

I'm looking forward to seeing Toyota's first all-electric EV https://www.toyota.ca/toyota/en/vehicles/bz4x/overview. Toyota quality without the Elon nonsense is a plus for me.

Lol I see that the post you're quoting is two years old. Unfortunately in the last two years Elon Musk has gone increasingly off the deep end. And while normally most people don't care about the politics of a company CEO, Elon has made himself a very outspoken public figure. So his politics are likely affecting Tesla sales. I still don't think they're in any existential danger but I'm not as bullish on them as I once was. Ultimately the increased competition they face is a good thing. I'd definitely be in the market for a Hyundai if I were buying a new car.