The Coming Disruption of Transport

[kEiThZ]

People laughed at Toyota and Hyundai, too.

Yep. And these guys are more competent and capable than Toyota and Honda were when they first started expanding internationally.

 

[kEiThZ]

This is an example of how they are going to slowly push the legacy automakers back to home markets.

BYD reveals new Shark hybrid pickup truck that Americans can't buy

China's BYD Auto launched its all-new Shark plug-in hybrid pickup truck on Tuesday with 430 horsepower and has 62 miles of all-electric range.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[rbt]

No one is buying Chinese made EVs. "Made in China" has too much stigma in the western world.

They have a fairly strong growth curve within the BEV market in Europe, particularly Spain and France. The bigger question is will BEVs replace ICE.

How Europe can use tariffs as part of an industrial strategy

Europe's leading NGO campaigning for cleaner transport

www.transportenvironment.org

 

[afransen]

The bigger question is will BEVs replace ICE.

Is that the question? The timescale is maybe up for debate, but it is going to happen.

 

[rbt]

Is that the question? The timescale is maybe up for debate, but it is going to happen.

There are laws to encourage that transition but it's not yet clear the European is fully onboard. A small bout of populism can easily delay the dates if not repeal them entirely.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

UK mind-share seems to be leaning heavily toward Hydrogen for both home heating and vehicles. Even nearly free (heavily subsidized) heat-pump installations are struggling there due to electricity rate fears.

Anyway, yeah, I'd say it's more likely for Chinese designed BEVs to dominate the European BEV market than it is for BEVs to pass 50% of new vehicle market share in the EU + UK. That's more a statement about certainty of Chinese BEV dominance than any expectation of BEV alternatives.

 

[afransen]

There are laws to encourage that transition but it's not yet clear the European is fully onboard. A small bout of populism can easily delay the dates if not repeal them entirely.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

UK mind-share seems to be leaning heavily toward Hydrogen for both home heating and vehicles. Even nearly free (heavily subsidized) heat-pump installations are struggling there due to electricity rate fears.

Anyway, yeah, I'd say it's more likely for Chinese designed BEVs to dominate the European BEV market than it is for BEVs to pass 50% of new vehicle market share in the EU + UK. That's more a statement about certainty of Chinese BEV dominance than any expectation of BEV alternatives.

Hydrogen has the small problem of being a thermodynamically silly idea. It isn't scalable and it isn't economic.

If we are suggesting to make it out of natural gas, we'd be better off burning the gas directly and skipping the trillion dollar greenwashing infrastructure.

If we are suggesting green hydrogen, it takes 3x the electricity to make hydrogen first to fuel a FCEV vs a BEV so is kind of inherently more expensive.

 

[Admiral Beez]

No one is buying Chinese made EVs. "Made in China" has too much stigma in the western world.

Not true. In 2023 Canada imported over 44,000 EVs from China, mostly Teslas made in Shanghai, but also Volvo's Polestars made in Chengdu, China.

China-made Teslas pour into Canada

Polestar is slated to move production for the US market to the USA, but only due to Biden's sanctions. If Canada does not follow suit, we'll be a dumping ground for Chinese EVs.