The Coming Disruption of Transport

[kEiThZ]

Rivian is burning cash at a prodigious rate. I give them 50/50 shot of making it to sustainable profitability. They are the best positioned of the Tesla-cloned, I'm pretty sure the rest will fizzle. Including Vinfast.

We tend to have a very North American perspective, which is not even close to reality in most of the world. China and Europe are electrifying really quickly. And the developing world is electrifying in ways we never imagined. Go look at stats for the electrification of two and three wheelers. It'll blow your mind.

As for the companies in question. Vinfast was making cars before EVs. Worst case for them is a retreat back to their home market in Vietnam. And with Rivian, I think they'll be fine. They've got too much talent, IP and brand recognition to pass up. Somebody would buy them. Maybe daddy Bezos takes them private.

I never understood the huge jump from ICE cars to fully electric.

Have you ever driven a hybrid? You'll get it after that. The maintenance costs and time are a motivation to get rid of the ICE portion.

It's not just easier for owners. It's also easier for manufacturers. A design optimized for electric vehicles tends to be lighter, more efficient and cheaper (or more profitable) than an ICEV chassis converted to EV. Compare the margins that Tesla makes on their cars to any other OEM on their hybrids or EVs based on converted chassis.

Toyota was right to focus on hybrids.

That must be why they're losing market share and profits so quickly in China, a rapidly electrifying market. Their strategy is going to prove to be Pennywise Poundfoolish when they get run over by the Chinese OEMs in every market without protectionism against Chinese automakers. Lucky for them, North Americans have no idea what the offerings are like elsewhere.

 

[kEiThZ]

However, range anxiety matters...imagine if all the eclipse watchers who will flock to Niagara needed a recharge to get home. My theory is that while EV is growing, the real tipping point won't happen until the storage and recharge aspects improve much further.

You know who talks about range anxiety? People who don't own EVs. You will never hear an EV owner mention it. They simply get better at managing their range and planning their trips. And every year the number of chargers and planning tools get better. Additionally, over the next few years, all the OEMs moving over to the NACS standard will make a huge difference in improving charging access.

Personally, I think of range anxiety as a concern on par with those who buy a pickup truck just to move a few 2x4s once a year. 95% of the year, you know your driving pattern. If there's a trip where you're not sure, just rent for that one trip. No different than renting a U-Haul to move something big.

 

[lenaitch]

And I think people who know that their driving pattern will be incompatible with a typical EV will be staying out of the market until either the range or charging infrastructure improves. Their biggest initial inroads will be in urban and near-urban areas which is 80% of our population. Planning out a driving trip for enabling infrastructure is something we haven't had to do in decades. Even renting a vehicle is easier in urban areas and still part of the planning process. Say what you want about them but ICE vehicles introduced us to an incredible degree of flexibility.

 

[crs1026]

In theory the idea of renting on a few occasions and saving the cost of owning a vehicle may seem like a no brainer - but show me people who actually do that. Rental is not really that convenient, even in urban centers. Try to find a rental agency that lets you get an early start out of town for the day, or return late in the evening. Zipcars and the like do exist but are not on every corner.
My spouse and I always planned that once retired we could downsize to a single vehicle. It hasn’t happened - if anything we have more need for two vehicles - and even with me being a transit nerd, I very much need a car. We did manage to move to one very small vehicle for short trips, and only one larger vehicle for longer runs. But the small vehicle is the one that doesn’t drive enough miles to make the ev price increment worth it.
Just a data base of one, perhaps, but among my neighbours, an EV is still more a statement than a trend.

- Paul

 

[Admiral Beez]

Not to say that hybrids are a complete waste of time, when batteries are cheap enough, hybrids won't be appealing as the duplicative powertrains consume a lot of space and become a maintenance liability.

That's why I would never consider a hybrid vehicle. The reason I'm considering an EV is to escape the maintenance of an ICE engine. Why would I want to carry one around in my EV, especially now that ranges are over 400 km.

One thing that I find odd about hybrids is the need to plug them in. I would have expected hybrids to work more like modern submarines or diesel-electric trains, where the engine never actually engages the drivetrain, but is instead solely there to create electric current to either drive the vehicle or charge the batteries for when the vehicle is moving without the engine running.

Diesel–electric powertrain - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Petrol–electric transmission - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[CapitalSeven]

I don't know what hybrid car bit KeithZ, but mine didn't cost a lot, gets 3.7 lp100k real-world on some trips, has never had a mechanical fault, and will go nearly 1000k on a tank. They are a good bridge to the all-electric era that's coming, but for which North America is not ready.

 

[Bojaxs]

Have you ever driven a hybrid? You'll get it after that. The maintenance costs and time are a motivation to get rid of the ICE portion.

Depends on who you buy your hybrid from. Toyota makes the most reliable engines in the world. Small maintenance costs. If you buy a Chrysler or Mercedes? Good luck!

That must be why they're losing market share and profits so quickly in China, a rapidly electrifying market. Their strategy is going to prove to be Pennywise Poundfoolish when they get run over by the Chinese OEMs in every market without protectionism against Chinese automakers. Lucky for them, North Americans have no idea what the offerings are like elsewhere.

Chinese government subsidizes Chinese automakers. Without government money all the Chinese EV manufacturers would have gone bankrupt long ago. The Chinese government also keeps Japanese cars out of the Chinese market due to past grievances surrounding WW2.

Chinese EV's are not associated with quality. Their battery technology is questionable. Understand that Chinese society is full of corruption. Cutting corners in quality control so an individual in management can pocket more government money is a typical part of life in China.

One thing that I find odd about hybrids is the need to plug them in. I would have expected hybrids to work more like modern submarines or diesel-electric trains, where the engine never actually engages the drivetrain, but is instead solely there to create electric current to either drive the vehicle or charge the batteries for when the vehicle is moving without the engine running.

I might be wrong, but I believe the video I linked in my earlier post explains Honda attempted this strategy with their hybrids but realised that it couldn't be mass produced. Eventually they opted to follow Toyota's strategy of simply adding a battery to assist/ supplement the engine.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Chinese EV's are not associated with quality. Their battery technology is questionable. Understand that Chinese society is full of corruption. Cutting corners in quality control so an individual in management can pocket more government money is a typical part of life in China.

It's a good point. We don't want Chinese-made batteries in scooters on the subway, but their cars could pose a greater risk.

 

[vic]

In theory the idea of renting on a few occasions and saving the cost of owning a vehicle may seem like a no brainer - but show me people who actually do that. Rental is not really that convenient, even in urban centers. Try to find a rental agency that lets you get an early start out of town for the day, or return late in the evening. Zipcars and the like do exist but are not on every corner.

We're a 2 adult, 1 kid, 1 dog, 1 house, and 0 car family. We rent when needed, pretty much always with Communauto now. It can be tricky on busier weekends though.

I guess it somewhat depends on expectations and lifestyle too. I've never been used to just jumping in a car and driving off to wherever at any time. More of my activities take some additional pre-planning.

 

[MrGoose]

Have you ever driven a hybrid? You'll get it after that. The maintenance costs and time are a motivation to get rid of the ICE portion.

I don’t understand this because I drive a hybrid Toyota.

I get 1000km a tank and I gas up once a month and it costs me only 61$cad for a full tank.

I live in an apartment so I can’t charge at home, so evs are out of the equation for me. Previous gen Priuses are common enough that maintenance isn’t any more or less expensive than a normal ICE car and I have a 12yr warranty on the hybrid system.

If I owned a home, I would think that a plugin hybrid would be the best choice for me too. Enough electric power so all my short daily trips are on battery and then I can take longer roadtrips on hybrid.

 

[MrGoose]

That's why I would never consider a hybrid vehicle. The reason I'm considering an EV is to escape the maintenance of an ICE engine. Why would I want to carry one around in my EV, especially now that ranges are over 400 km.

One thing that I find odd about hybrids is the need to plug them in. I would have expected hybrids to work more like modern submarines or diesel-electric trains, where the engine never actually engages the drivetrain, but is instead solely there to create electric current to either drive the vehicle or charge the batteries for when the vehicle is moving without the engine running.

Diesel–electric powertrain - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Petrol–electric transmission - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

If your hybrid is not a plugin hybrid, then you don’t have to charge it, the battery is charged by the IC engine

 

[PL1]

In theory the idea of renting on a few occasions and saving the cost of owning a vehicle may seem like a no brainer - but show me people who actually do that. Rental is not really that convenient, even in urban centers. Try to find a rental agency that lets you get an early start out of town for the day, or return late in the evening. Zipcars and the like do exist but are not on every corner.
My spouse and I always planned that once retired we could downsize to a single vehicle. It hasn’t happened - if anything we have more need for two vehicles - and even with me being a transit nerd, I very much need a car. We did manage to move to one very small vehicle for short trips, and only one larger vehicle for longer runs. But the small vehicle is the one that doesn’t drive enough miles to make the ev price increment worth it.
Just a data base of one, perhaps, but among my neighbours, an EV is still more a statement than a trend.

- Paul

I recognize that we're the exception, but we've never owned a car. I live a five minute walk from 2 subway stops. I use Zipcar for the occasional short rental, and TTC or taxi/Lyft/Uber for short trips. I rent cars occasionally or (more recent) have used Turo for longer trips. We need to plan trips/shopping excursions a bit more than if we owned a car. But I'm not spending the ~$8k a year to own and maintain a car. Closer to $3k.

 

[crs1026]

I recognize that we're the exception, but we've never owned a car. I live a five minute walk from 2 subway stops. I use Zipcar for the occasional short rental, and TTC or taxi/Lyft/Uber for short trips. I rent cars occasionally or (more recent) have used Turo for longer trips. We need to plan trips/shopping excursions a bit more than if we owned a car. But I'm not spending the ~$8k a year to own and maintain a car. Closer to $3k.

I suspect that car rental works very well in those pockets where the "15 minute community" is already well ingrained. And certainly one can plan much travel. But many people have a lifestyle that assumes an auto with range is sitting close at hand. That "many" likely includes most of inner and outer suburbia, and much of the inner urban housing (judging by how many car owners are vying for onstreet parking permits).

So long as people have the disposable income to support it, many will continue to see the value in owning an auto. Some will trade their annual car expense for an additional cruise or all-inclusive resort vacation, others won't.

I wonder if transit oriented development contemplates greater provision for rental services.... if I were shopping for a condo, the presence of a rental shop with good hours of opening would be as attractive an amenity as a charging station.

As it happens, my morning's activity included haggling with the service rep at my local car dealer over recommended maintenance that sure sounded like pure upsell. I wonder how EV vendors compare. I would dearly love to ditch the ICE and get the simplicity of an EV drive train, but none of the current options offer better overall flexibility and value....yet. I suspect I'm not alone.

- Paul

 

[lenaitch]

As it happens, my morning's activity included haggling with the service rep at my local car dealer over recommended maintenance that sure sounded like pure upsell. I wonder how EV vendors compare.

No doubt they will find a way. The service department has always been a profit centre but it became the golden egg during COVID when sales tanked, and they've become quite used to the stream. EVs require less maintenance, but it isn't zero and some of it is EV-specific. They will hold the keys until such time as the independent shops are able to tool and knowledge up.

Another angle is subscription services for things like GPS and driver assist. Some have retreated from them because of public backlash but I doubt the idea is completely dead.

 

[crs1026]

A recent Globe article also noted that while there is ample supply of the highest-priced EV's and rechargeable hybrids, the more economical models have long waiting lists, no doubt with the car companies and dealers charging a premium price given demand. One wonders if the auto makers and vendors like it this way. The post-covid hangover in auto production backlog is still with us. Maybe as supply improves, prices will fall.

- Paul