The Coming Disruption of Transport

[ssiguy2]

We tried hydrogen aircraft a century ago, albeit in the form of airships.

We knew how that went:

Source: Wikimedia Commons

Thank you for such a well reasoned and thoughtful rebuttal. The Titanic sank 20 years earlier so maybe we should ban passenger ships too?

We maybe able to fly to Mars on a Duracell in a 100 years but we don't have 100 years or even 50. Decarbonization of our entire transportation sector must begin as soon as possible if we are to save this planet and batteries are a VERY long way off for any meaningful long distance transportation or major industrial/agricultural uses. To put into perspective how truly ridiculous it is to expect our planes to be running on batteries, the current large Tesla SUVs are illegal on the Brooklyn Bridge due to being over the bridge's weight tolerance and it's all due to the batteries.

When you can't even get a battery SUV over a bridge, how the hell are you going to get a plane carrying 100+ passengers off the ground and fly for thousands of km? This is why NONE of the large aerospace manufacturers are putting any money into batteries but billions into hydrogen.

 

[kEiThZ]

When you can't even get a battery SUV over a bridge,...

What are you talking about?

 

[lenaitch]

What are you talking about?

He's apparently talking about this. Several websites talk about it.

If you drive the new Tesla Model X over the Brooklyn Bridge, you could get arrested for breaking the law!

The new Tesla Model X is in for an exhilarating drive!

plugin-magazine.com

 

[wopchop]

Except for the part where the weight limit isn't enforced for private vehicles and you can drive over the Brooklyn Bridge in a Tesla

 

[kEiThZ]

Yeah. And I'm not sure how a particular restriction in one city is broadly relevant at all. There's weight and width restrictions all over the world. Carmakers don't build to the tightest restrictions globally.

 

[afransen]

Except for the part where the weight limit isn't enforced for private vehicles and you can drive over the Brooklyn Bridge in a Tesla

Not all Teslas, just Model X. So 95% of Teslas sold are just fine! But there are many heavy passenger vehicles that exceed that weight threshold.

 

[vic]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1440332520671772673

 

[dr.dylz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1440332520671772673

 

[kEiThZ]

So Norway looks set to hit 100% EV sales sometime in 2022, well ahead of the 2025 deadline.

Those sales seem to be following that S-curve as predicted by futurists like Tony Seba. This is a taste of what is to come. What not a lot of Westerners seem to have to caught on to is how far ahead Chinese automakers are. They are making EVs with decent finish and 300 km of range for a post-subsidy price of $15 000. And some of them are wising up to the fact that legacy automakers in the West, Japan and Korea are at least half a decade (if not a full decade behind) on electrification and hobbled by sunk cost bias in all their existing investment in ICEV technology, knowledge, supply chains, etc. It's easier for these automakers to compete outside China than against the intense competition in China (which has just driven plug-ins to 19% markesthare). Those exports are just starting up, with a big move on Europe. The coming competition is driving Volkswagen execs to have emergency crisis meetings.

This is playing out quite closely to what Tony Seba predicted. Now we can add auto consultant and teardown expert Sandy Munro to the list, who has predicted that if the Big 3 don't have 50% of sales as plug-ins by 2028, they won't survive as independent automakers. We're watching history in the making here. It really looks like we're increasingly on track for much greater than the piddling sales targets of 20-30% BEVs that most governments have. The coming Chinese exports is going to take a ton of share from legacy automakers, particularly from Japanese and Korean OEMs in the lower segments. And they'll move up the value chain in due course. We are probably going to see some major automakers fail by the end of the decade, because they have misjudged the transition. My money is on Toyota given the intransigence of their leadership, their contemptible lobbying against EVs around the world. But really, it's a target rich environment with the legacy automakers. It's going to be some real irony when Volkswagen emerges as one of the only major legacy OEMs to do well from the transition, and can attribute a good chunk of that timing to be compelled to action by the dieselgate scandal and fallout.

 

[kEiThZ]

Bump for the poll. So would any of you consider any of Chinese EVs that are likely to enter the Canadian market in the next 2-3 years?

 

[EastYorkTTCFan]

Bump for the poll. So would any of you consider any of Chinese EVs that are likely to enter the Canadian market in the next 2-3 years?

I think the biggest problem with the majority of EV manufacturers is that they aren't doing anything to help people with charging them. They all want to take the approach as they have with gas and deasil powered cars and let someone else do it. The reason why Tesla is the highest selling EV in a number of places is because of its supercharger network way more than anything.

 

[crs1026]

Bump for the poll. So would any of you consider any of Chinese EVs that are likely to enter the Canadian market in the next 2-3 years?

In year one? Personally, no - I would wait until there was data about build quality.

But I would predict that many would jump sooner if the price were right.

I do fully expect that my next vehicle purchase will be an EV.

The question, as you point out, is whether the traditional builders would be ready to offer competing models at competing price points. If so, my brand loyalty would likely kick in first.

- Paul

 

[kEiThZ]

I think the biggest problem with the majority of EV manufacturers is that they aren't doing anything to help people with charging them. They all want to take the approach as they have with gas and deasil powered cars and let someone else do it. The reason why Tesla is the highest selling EV in a number of places is because of its supercharger network way more than anything.

This is not entirely true. As part of the diesel gate settlement, Volkswagen put in money into Electrify America and Electrify Canada charging networks. Since the launch, more automakers have signed on to support that network. And they are building out at a decent pace.

There's also the utilities. OPG and Hydro One are building out the Ivy Charging network. Quebec Hydro owns the Electric Circuit charging network, one of the largest networks in the country.

In year one? Personally, no - I would wait until there was data about build quality.

They have better build quality than most legacy automakers. Keep in mind that they've been building cars in China for all the legacy automakers through Joint Ventures for decades. They've learned a ton through that. The brands going abroad aren't the cheap junk brand. They are some of the best in China. And they are plenty competitive with American, European and Japanese brands. Actually better in plenty of cases.

The question, as you point out, is whether the traditional builders would be ready to offer competing models at competing price points

They most certainly won't. Tesla is the exception. This is largely because so much of the world's batteries and semiconductors are made in China. This gives Chinese automakers a natural advantage. And it will be at least a decade or more before the legacy OEMs catch-up. If they catch up.....

 

[crs1026]

They have better build quality than most legacy automakers. Keep in mind that they've been building cars in China for all the legacy automakers through Joint Ventures for decades. They've learned a ton through that. The brands going abroad aren't the cheap junk brand. They are some of the best in China. And they are plenty competitive with American, European and Japanese brands. Actually better in plenty of cases.

I don't doubt this for a minute. But (at the risk of sounding a bit old and crusty, but perhaps not atypical) as a car buyer I find I'm still turning up my nose at Hyundai and Kia, despite ample evidence that they build good cars. It's a newest to market thing, and I'm old enough to remember the Pony. Clearly lots of people are not of my mindset, as these cars are selling like hotcakes..... but Honda and Toyota do command brand loyalty. They have a huge opportunity to leverage that brand image.... or waste it.

(And in my defense, I have never owed a Buick..... ;-) )

- Paul

 

[kEiThZ]

I don't doubt this for a minute. But (at the risk of sounding a bit old and crusty, but perhaps not atypical) as a car buyer I find I'm still turning up my nose at Hyundai and Kia, despite ample evidence that they build good cars. It's a newest to market thing, and I'm old enough to remember the Pony. Clearly lots of people are not of my mindset, as these cars are selling like hotcakes..... but Honda and Toyota do command brand loyalty. They have a huge opportunity to leverage that brand image.... or waste it.

(And in my defense, I have never owed a Buick..... ;-) )

- Paul

The real value in the Chinese OEMs starting to export quality EVs is the pressure they will put on legacy automakers everywhere to ramp up both electrification of their product lines and to cut cost. This is a $25 000 car in China ($30-35k when exported):

The Chinese OEMs are starting to realize that there's way less competition outside China than in China. And so it's actually easier for them to take on Detroit and Munich. Hopefully, the coming competition dramatically accelerates electrification. It'd be great to get to Tony Seba's prediction of 100% BEV sales by 2030. I am not quite at that point. But watching what is happening in Europe (particularly Norway) and in China itself, I am starting to think these national and global forecasts and targets are off. The current federal target of 30% BEVs is actually weak. I get the sense that most developed countries, including Canada, could easily hit over 70% of sales with Battery Electric by 2030, if the battery supply materializes.