The Coming Disruption of Transport

[afransen]

But there's no realistic prospect of anything that would replace a 100 seater before 2050.

This is pretty speculative. There will be vast sums spent on developing improved battery chemistries and manufacturing techniques. 30 years ago the internet essentially didn't exist. 30 years is a long time!

This is what batteries could do, thirty years ago:

A phone a day: Motorola DynaTAC 8800x (1987) - Orange Cone

orangecone.com

 

[kEiThZ]

Motor Mouth: Canada moves to ban new combustion-engine cars by 2035

The federal gov't announces a new timeline to completely phase out gas and diesel cars, but only makes vague promises of how we’ll get there

driving.ca

 

[kEiThZ]

This is pretty speculative. There will be vast sums spent on developing improved battery chemistries and manufacturing techniques. 30 years ago the internet essentially didn't exist. 30 years is a long time!

I'm bullish on electrification. More than most. But I also think some EV advocates really don't understand the physical limitations involved in moving domains like aviation. Let alone the economics. Conventional electrochemical cells just aren't going to cut it. Maybe if they can come up with flow batteries there's an outside chance. But even that is a long shot in 30 years.

You bring up the example of mobile phones from 30 years ago. But aviation isn't telecommunications. Air Canada keeps planes in service for 25-30 years. There's developing countries that fly them longer. The transition for aviation is just going to be different. The first phase is going to be entirely about trying to source low intensity or zero carbon combustible fuels. Electrification on a broad commercial scale won't be a thing till beyond the 2050s.

 

[crs1026]

I'm bullish on electrification. More than most. But I also think some EV advocates really don't understand the physical limitations involved in moving domains like aviation. Let alone the economics. Conventional electrochemical cells just aren't going to cut it. Maybe if they can come up with flow batteries there's an outside chance. But even that is a long shot in 30 years.

I’m with you, not only with respect to aviation but to all heavy-duty diesel applications where there is sustained high output. EV buses are here, but I haven’t seen many hybrid earth movers.

City of Brampton orders electric fire truck, in Ontario first

As a homeowner I would have no fear that an EV fire truck would fail to arrive on scene… but I’d be interested in how long it can pump water before the battery is dead.

Interesting that they pitch a reduction of carcinogens…. I totally get why firefighters don’t want to be breathing in diesel fumes, but when it comes to limiting emissions, a ‘green’ fire truck is kind of mixing up the tail and the dog….

- Paul

 

[kEiThZ]

I haven’t seen many hybrid earth movers.

This Electric Caterpillar Excavator Is the Tesla of Heavy Construction Equipment

Pon Equipment plans to deliver eight of the excavators to EV-crazed Norway.

www.thedrive.com

They are there. Just not common. This kind of stuff I'm not concerned about. It'll all get electrified. I think even most long haul trucking will will either get electrified or hybridized.

Aviation is just extreme in the required thrust/weight ratio of the propulsion system and the required energy density to make aviation profitable. The requirements most certainly mean a fuel that must reduce aircraft weight as it is consumed and yet have enough energy to effectively drive something that is the size of a small town powerplant for 8 hrs. That's a tall order in 30 years. Beyond that? Could happen.

 

[Bureaucromancer]

Aviation is just extreme in the required thrust/weight ratio of the propulsion system and the required energy density to make aviation profitable. The requirements most certainly mean a fuel that must reduce aircraft weight as it is consumed and yet have enough energy to effectively drive something that is the size of a small town powerplant for 8 hrs. That's a tall order in 30 years. Beyond that? Could happen.

All of which combine in a way that makes me wonder if we won't end up finding that the most feasible way to deliver sustainable aviation is in fact HydroLOX suborbital transports, with all the time and cost implications of point to point spaceflight.

 

[lenaitch]

I’m with you, not only with respect to aviation but to all heavy-duty diesel applications where there is sustained high output. EV buses are here, but I haven’t seen many hybrid earth movers.

City of Brampton orders electric fire truck, in Ontario first

As a homeowner I would have no fear that an EV fire truck would fail to arrive on scene… but I’d be interested in how long it can pump water before the battery is dead.

Interesting that they pitch a reduction of carcinogens…. I totally get why firefighters don’t want to be breathing in diesel fumes, but when it comes to limiting emissions, a ‘green’ fire truck is kind of mixing up the tail and the dog….

- Paul

According to their website, it is a diesel/electric hybrid.

https://www.rosenbauer.com/en/ca/rosenbauer-world/vehicles/municipal-vehicles/rt

 

[afransen]

I'm bullish on electrification. More than most. But I also think some EV advocates really don't understand the physical limitations involved in moving domains like aviation. Let alone the economics. Conventional electrochemical cells just aren't going to cut it. Maybe if they can come up with flow batteries there's an outside chance. But even that is a long shot in 30 years.

You bring up the example of mobile phones from 30 years ago. But aviation isn't telecommunications. Air Canada keeps planes in service for 25-30 years. There's developing countries that fly them longer. The transition for aviation is just going to be different. The first phase is going to be entirely about trying to source low intensity or zero carbon combustible fuels. Electrification on a broad commercial scale won't be a thing till beyond the 2050s.

Short haul air travel is not a trivial market!

I would be rather shocked if we don't see major inroads for battery aircraft in that segment. Solid state batteries are likely 10 years from commercialization, but not 30, and hold the promise of up to 2.5x energy density improvement. I kind of doubt they will make a big space in automotive industry, but the energy density makes solid state battery very appealing for aircraft, even if they are more expensive. For something like an aircraft that would cycle the battery several times per day, the cost of the battery is kind of moot when compared to the fuel savings.

Flow batteries are unlikely as they have poor volumetric and weight energy density.

 

[afransen]

According to their website, it is a diesel/electric hybrid.

https://www.rosenbauer.com/en/ca/rosenbauer-world/vehicles/municipal-vehicles/rt

I can see hydrogen BEV hybrids making sense for fire engines. A large part of their purpose to provide a portable power source for fire fighting, and even diesel is tolerable if on-site refueling is necessary. Is that a thing for fire engines in the field? Responding to basic calls could be 100% battery as typically they are not going far, with a genset for recharging in the field for major fires.

 

[afransen]

Construction equipment I can see remaining non-battery for quite some time. Often they are used on sites without available or convenient on-site charging infrastructure, so you'd either need a battery truck to recharge equipment and then go plug in somewhere on-site or use chemical power (hydrogen or fossil fuels) to power the vehicle.

 

[crs1026]

I can see hydrogen BEV hybrids making sense for fire engines. A large part of their purpose to provide a portable power source for fire fighting, and even diesel is tolerable if on-site refueling is necessary. Is that a thing for fire engines in the field? Responding to basic calls could be 100% battery as typically they are not going far, with a genset for recharging in the field for major fires.

Fire trucks do occasionally get refuelled in the field if they are used for a long time. Pretty rare in the scheme of things, however.

I can.see battery being quite OK for motive power, and as emergency vehicles spend a lot of time just idling on scene, an electric option would be attractive as there are no energy cost or emissions while they are stationary. I believe the duty cycle is fairly harsh as they operate from moderately cold starts - not a lot of warmup time. And pumping takes a lot of power.

A fire scene ends up with lots of water puddles. I wonder if running cables to gensets is all that practical, even as a plan b.

As noted, the vehicle Brampton bought is a hybrid. Perhaps having a diesel on board just for pumping is practical - its emissions, as a percentage of the overall fire emissions, is probably inconsequential. Certainly, the duty cycle leaves lots of time for recharging.

For construction vehicles that take nights off, a portable recharging station might be practical.

- Paul

 

[afransen]

A fire scene ends up with lots of water puddles. I wonder if running cables to gensets is all that practical, even as a plan b.

I meant integrated, not a separate unit (ie, a series hybrid).

 

[kEiThZ]

Short haul air travel is not a trivial market!

Never said it wasn't.

I would be rather shocked if we don't see major inroads for battery aircraft in that segment. Solid state batteries are likely 10 years from commercialization, but not 30, and hold the promise of up to 2.5x energy density improvement. I kind of doubt they will make a big space in automotive industry, but the energy density makes solid state battery very appealing for aircraft, even if they are more expensive.

Even at 2.5x density of current batteries, we're still not at capability of an 120-140 seat A319, A220 or 737-700. Let alone at the ranges they fly. Best case by 2050, is a 50-80 seater that can do a 500 km flight and turn around in a reasonable amount of time with charging or refueling.

 

[lenaitch]

Fire trucks do occasionally get refuelled in the field if they are used for a long time. Pretty rare in the scheme of things, however.

I can.see battery being quite OK for motive power, and as emergency vehicles spend a lot of time just idling on scene, an electric option would be attractive as there are no energy cost or emissions while they are stationary. I believe the duty cycle is fairly harsh as they operate from moderately cold starts - not a lot of warmup time. And pumping takes a lot of power.

A fire scene ends up with lots of water puddles. I wonder if running cables to gensets is all that practical, even as a plan b.

As noted, the vehicle Brampton bought is a hybrid. Perhaps having a diesel on board just for pumping is practical - its emissions, as a percentage of the overall fire emissions, is probably inconsequential. Certainly, the duty cycle leaves lots of time for recharging.

For construction vehicles that take nights off, a portable recharging station might be practical.

- Paul

Although large, long term fire scenes are comparatively rare these days, when they do happen, all sorts of things happen in the background. Apparatus and crews get changed out, food, fuel, air supply replenishment, etc. So long as it is a hybrid, this type of vehicle should be able to carry its weight. You are correct, pumping takes a lot of power, especially if the water has to be forced up multiple floors.

The problem with a pure EV emergency vehicle, like fire apparatus, is sustainability with current technology. Not too bad if it is a one-off, but when they become a significant part of the fleet, you are into a larger fleet, more crews, etc.

 

[afransen]

Never said it wasn't.



Even at 2.5x density of current batteries, we're still not at capability of an 120-140 seat A319, A220 or 737-700. Let alone at the ranges they fly. Best case by 2050, is a 50-80 seater that can do a 500 km flight and turn around in a reasonable amount of time with charging or refueling.

There are start ups that are not so pessimistic. See Wright Electric. Of course, not guarantee of success or on their target timeline for 2030, but 2050 is very pessimistic. I think it will be a matter of how big a niche fully battery electric aircraft will take, not really whether. The economic imperative will be strong.