The Climate Change Thread

[kEiThZ]

Fire threatens homes near West Kelowna, evacuation orders, alerts issued in Kelowna

WEST KELOWNA, B.C. - A fast-burning wildfire threatening West Kelowna, B.C., is challenging fire crews as they...

nanaimonewsnow.com

 

[Towered]

Fire threatens homes near West Kelowna, evacuation orders, alerts issued in Kelowna

WEST KELOWNA, B.C. - A fast-burning wildfire threatening West Kelowna, B.C., is challenging fire crews as they...

nanaimonewsnow.com

Damn. Doesn't BC usually get tons of rain?

 

[lenaitch]

There's massive risk right now. Given the commitments to NATO and our personnel shortfall this could end up simply breaking people only making every problem worse.

I've long been of the opinion that Canada should have a proper Civil Defence force that even takes over major functions like Search and Rescue. The CAF can then support that agency rather than being the first responder for this stuff. The military role will never disappear completely. There's a lot of capabilities that only the military could support and maintain. Such an agency would also be a good spot for injured veterans who can work but don't meet university of service and so are forced out today, letting substantial public investment out the door.

My preferred model is the French one:

Sécurité Civile - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

A remarkable facet of a lot of these organizations is how much of it is volunteers. 97% of Germany's 80k strong Civil Defence force is volunteers.

Technisches Hilfswerk - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Alternatively one of the most professional services out there is Singapore's Civil Defence force:

Singapore Civil Defence Force - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Part of the internal fear expressed by some in relation to SAR is that not all of the assets are dedicated 'yellow' and it would cost the military assets they would otherwise still need unless the government was willing to lay out significant dollars for additional.. Also, these domestic operations are seen by some as a positive exposure to a public that rarely thinks of the military at all.

I see merits to both sides and don't really have a position.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Damn. Doesn't BC usually get tons of rain?

I wonder what have they learned from the Lytton wildfire in 2021.

AoD

 

[W. K. Lis]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1692547009289372154

 

[jje1000]

Not all solar is made equal:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689782450300637186

 

[afransen]

Not all solar is made equal:

View attachment 501089

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689782450300637186

This is why carbon tax is useful. A global, appropriately set carbon tax would remove the need for navel gazing or supply chain emissions estimations (which are terribly difficult to do with any accuracy or precision). The price signal is very good at allocating resources.

Secondly, while the average electrical generation in Ontario is quite clean, the marginal generation might not be. Ontario needs additional generating capacity, and solar panels tend to help with peak summer cooling loads. In time, the peak energy demand may shift to winter with adoption of heat pumps. Ontario may also be exporting surplus solar to nearby US states with considerably dirtier grids.

 

[W. K. Lis]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1693030697739432179

 

[W. K. Lis]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1692989788666613842

 

[kEiThZ]

Part of the internal fear expressed by some in relation to SAR is that not all of the assets are dedicated 'yellow' and it would cost the military assets they would otherwise still need unless the government was willing to lay out significant dollars for additional..

I've never heard this. All our SAR assets are painted yellow. Occasionally, the ops centres might task some other RCAF aircraft or RCN ship in the vicinity to start a search. But that wouldn't make them dedicated SAR assets. A proper civil defence agency couldn't just take over SAR. It could have a dedicated drone surveillance fleet for SAR and border patrol. It could have a water bomber fleet for firefighting. Etc.

Also, these domestic operations are seen by some as a positive exposure to a public that rarely thinks of the military at all.

This I have heard all the time. I just don't think it's a good enough excuse to keep SAR under the RCAF. Just comes across as empire building to me. Reminds of the RCMP keeping hostage rescue mandate for so long until it was decided to actually move that function to the CAF and stand up a proper Tier 1 Special Forces unit with JTF 2. Place the appropriate capabilities with the appropriate agencies.

 

[kEiThZ]

A global, appropriately set carbon tax would remove the need for navel gazing or supply chain emissions estimations (which are terribly difficult to do with any accuracy or precision). The price signal is very good at allocating resources.

Border adjustment taxes would be useful. But they are hard to do. All kinds of trade restrictions.

Secondly, while the average electrical generation in Ontario is quite clean, the marginal generation might not be. Ontario needs additional generating capacity, and solar panels tend to help with peak summer cooling loads. In time, the peak energy demand may shift to winter with adoption of heat pumps. Ontario may also be exporting surplus solar to nearby US states with considerably dirtier grids.

Yep. The biggest value of solar is that it is mostly concurrent with demand peaks for air conditioning. This is useful in blunting demand for power from natural gas peaker plants. The argument that Chinese PV will not be net zero on lifecycle emissions ignores this.

When it comes to possible winter demand in the future, it's not going to be solar. It's going to be hydro, nuclear and maybe (if Ontario actually gets it together) offshore wind.

 

[lenaitch]

I've never heard this. All our SAR assets are painted yellow.

Dedicated SAR assets might be 'dedicated' in an oh-so Canadian way. The rotary are yellow but I wasn't aware that the CC-130s of 424 and 435 squadrons were also, since they are multi-role squadrons.

 

[kEiThZ]

The rotary are yellow but I wasn't aware that the CC-130s of 424 and 435 squadrons were also, since they are multi-role squadrons.

The CC130H fleet is multirole because we used Hercs for SAR before. It's a legacy function. But they are being replaced by the CC295 Kingfisher which are all painted yellow. Dedicated SAR role fleet. And if the Kingfisher doesn't pan out, we'll buy stubby C130Js and paint them yellow while leaving the stretch Js in air force grey exclusively for transport.

Sometime in the early 2000s, the RCAF made a decision to commit to one fleet per role. And for SAR, that decision led to replacing both the SAR CC130H and the CC115 with a single dedicated Fixed Wing SAR fleet. That is the CC295.

 

[lenaitch]

The CC130H fleet is multirole because we used Hercs for SAR before. It's a legacy function. But they are being replaced by the CC295 Kingfisher which are all painted yellow. Dedicated SAR role fleet. And if the Kingfisher doesn't pan out, we'll buy stubby C130Js and paint them yellow while leaving the stretch Js in air force grey exclusively for transport.

Sometime in the early 2000s, the RCAF made a decision to commit to one fleet per role. And for SAR, that decision led to replacing both the SAR CC130H and the CC115 with a single dedicated Fixed Wing SAR fleet. That is the CC295.

Fair enough, but it doesn't take away from the current reality that all SAR assets aren't yellow. And I hope the 295 fleets works out, because any alternative will add a decade or two (not counting 'now what do we to with them').

 

[kEiThZ]

Fair enough, but it doesn't take away from the current reality that all SAR assets aren't yellow. And I hope the 295 fleets works out, because any alternative will add a decade or two (not counting 'now what do we to with them').

Close. The entire Buffalo fleet was yellow. It was only ever a handful of Hercs that were multi-rolled. And this has been a situation the RCAF has wanted out of since the 90s.

As for the 295, it's been a nightmare of bad policy from both the RCAF, the previous CPC government and the current LPC government. Governments refused to increase SAR budgets and refused to allow procurement to consider when benefits of commonality. This compelled the RCAF to underweight the value of using Hercs as SAR replacements. If we wanted to solve this, any government can simply cut a cheque to LockMart and buy 15 Hercs painted yellow. We already have a training and spares pipeline. And if those moved to another agency, the RCAF could still provide training and maintenance support.