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Speech from the Throne: Federal Election Time?

H

Hydrogen

Guest
Blueprint for an election
The plan: Broad tax cuts; Strengthen Arctic sovereignty; Kill off Kyoto; Extend Afghan mission to 2011
BRIAN LAGHI

From Wednesday's Globe and Mail
October 17, 2007 at 2:33 AM EDT

OTTAWA — Broad tax cuts, tough-on-crime legislation and the desire for a two-year extension of the Afghanistan military mission form the core of Stephen Harper's new governing agenda, which could double as a fall campaign blueprint.

In a Speech from the Throne richer in policy content than expected, the Tory government also promised Tuesday to unveil new measures to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, apologize for residential school abuses, find money for infrastructure and require people who wear veils to uncover their faces to vote.

But the speech also tried to navigate clear of controversial issues in an apparent effort to assuage concerns that Mr. Harper has a hidden agenda.

Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion, in whose hands the future of the government rests, said he had difficulty with much of the speech – particularly its “shocking indifference” to poverty and a lack of commitment to the environment.

However, he said Canadians are tired of elections and pledged to give his final verdict Wednesday. The Throne Speech is a confidence matter that could kill the minority government.

“Canadians want this Parliament to work. They don't want a third election in three years and a half, so we'll have a real lively caucus tomorrow,” he said.

The NDP and the Bloc Québécois immediately signalled that they would oppose the bill to implement the speech.

“This sends Canada in the wrong direction,” NDP Leader Jack Layton said while the speech was still being read in the Senate.

BQ Leader Gilles Duceppe also blasted the speech, saying the environmental program is designed to please the United States. “This doesn't meet the conditions that we had presented.”

The speech was a plan to launch a second phase for the Tory government, which has exhausted its original five priorities.

“Now is the time to continue building a better Canada,” said the text, which Governor-General Michaëlle Jean read over the supper hour.

“Our government will focus on five clear priorities: strengthening Canada's sovereignty and place in the world; building a stronger federation; providing effective economic leadership; continuing to tackle crime and improving our environment.”

If the government survives, a future flashpoint will probably be a new omnibus bill covering crime. That legislation will include measures on stricter bail, dangerous offenders and strengthening the Youth Criminal Justice Act.

“In the last session, our government introduced important and timely legislation to tackle violent crime. Unfortunately much of this legislation did not pass,” the speech said. “That is not good enough to maintain the confidence of Canadians.”

On Afghanistan, the speech says Canada should shift its emphasis in the Kandahar region to a training role so that the Afghan government can defend its own sovereignty.

The government, which has struck a blue-ribbon advisory committee on the matter, also believes that the objective is achievable by 2011, an extra two years.

“Our government does not believe that Canada should simply abandon the people of Afghanistan after February, 2009.”

Mr. Dion called the idea vague.

On the environment, the government committed to following through with requirements for carbon emission reductions and the establishment of a carbon emissions trading market.

“Our government believes strongly that an effective global approach to greenhouse-gas emissions must have binding targets that apply to all major emitters, including Canada.”

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May said the environmental proposals are too vague to defeat the government on.

Other key portions of the speech include efforts to woo Quebec votes, such as a promise for legislation that would restrict the government's power to spend in areas of provincial legislation.

The government has also pledged to strengthen measures to confirm the visual identification of voters.

The commitment comes after Canada's chief electoral officer refused to put into place laws that would have compelled the removal of veils during the recent Quebec by-elections.

The government also promised to follow through with a campaign plank to cut the GST by another percentage point.

The speech earned plaudits from native leaders for a pledge to apologize for residential schools abuses and will use the final settlement with victims to “make a statement of apology to close this sad chapter in our history.”

One academic said the Throne Speech needs to carry the party toward the next election.

“What this Throne Speech really signals, I think, is the second dimension to the Tory mandate,” said David Mitchell, a political historian at Queen's University in Kingston. “This has got to be the equivalent of their election manifesto.”

At a caucus meeting Tuesday, most Liberal MPs said they were inclined to let the Throne Speech pass, as long as it did not contain a blatant poison pill.

While a few MPs were spoiling for a fight, most thought that the Liberals should vote against it only if it contained very objectionable provisions that could be easily explained to voters.

With reports from Daniel Leblanc, Bill Curry, Gloria Galloway and Campbell Clark

--------------------------------------------------------------

In my opinion it was kind of vague, and appeared to rehash a number of items that the Conservatives could not get through last time around. That being said, Layton and the bug-eyed guy from Quebec appear to be ready to vote against this, leaving Dion as the unlucky guy to prop up the government, or to bring it down.

Okay kids, let's start the rumination and speculation.
 
Well, there is nothing stopping anyone from voting for the Throne Speech and then against voting against whatever measures extending from it - particularly when the speech is so engineered with wedge issues.

Where is health, cities, national economic strategy in all this? Since when did national soverignity becomes such a burning issue? And it's "nice" to see how violent crime is lumped in with stuff like Age of Consent (and the inevitable - if you vote against this bill (on the basis of of AoC stance), you are "soft" on crime (violent crime).

If I was Dion though, I wouldn't have wait for Manley's report to come out - be nasty and drive home the Afghanistan issue, where Harper is particularly weak. Ditto the environment (just what has Canada's New Government done other than rebranding initiatives by Canada's Old Government, exactly?)

And yes, play the regional card - particularly with the high dollar leading to problems with the manufacturing sector (re: Ontario) - and ferment a little discontent in the vote rich province.

AoD
 
This TS is a joke! It's Asspher's plot, a setup to force the Liberal to call an election....cause they think they can win majority esp alot of people don't want an election. He will blame it all on the Liberal.

Why the hell are we still in Afghan? Where's Health? Where's Environment?

Yup, just use these 3 points to attack those Asspher and his right wingnuts, Liberal may have a shot.
 
Dion just needs to bite the bullet on this one and bring down the government. Things are not going to get better for him. Harper will just keep introducing confidence motions into the House, making the Liberals appear even more weak and ineffective, or forcing them to the ballots. Might as well do it now and get it over with. If they lose terribly in the election, the party will have 4 years to get a new leader and ensure he/she takes a stronger role in pushing the Liberal message.
 
Problem is that Dion and the Liberals knows there is no one ready to replace him. They just lost most of their key Quebec leadership, and more will follow. If this keeps up, even Liberal Ontario will not vote for the Libs.
 
That's what I'd like Dion to do as well. The Bloc is weak, but the Liberals are being squeezed by the Conservatives in rural and suburban areas (along with the ADQ symbolize, in my view, the re-emergence of the very conservative Duplessis-era politics in Quebec) and a stronger NPD in Montreal.

Dion losing credibility on things like Afghanistan and Kyoto will get more support for the NDP in Anglophone and Francophone urban ridings or even the Greens in rural and semi-rural Ontario, BC and Maritimes.
 
I'm not sure Dion is losing credibility because of Kyoto or Afghanistan because I think most Canadians don't really have a clear sense of these issues. It would seem to be an issue as to whether people are comfortable with a plan once they actually hear it expressed - regardless of the party.


Admiral Beez, I think that Federal Liberal support has actually increased slightly in Ontario at the expense of the Conservatives.


The Quebec Federal Liberals, like so many things in Quebec, are plagued by an overwhelming sense of entitlement. They kind of view themselves as a seperate and unique division of the Federal Liberal Party, demand extra control and extra funding, and are entranced by the fact that Quebec is a nation within Canada and that their entitlement is related to this.
 
Admiral Beez, I think that Federal Liberal support has actually increased slightly in Ontario at the expense of the Conservatives.
IMO, this is due to Harper's lack of personal appeal. If Kennedy had been elected leader, I think by the next election we would have had a strong Liberal contender.
 
IMO, this is due to Harper's lack of personal appeal. If Kennedy had been elected leader, I think by the next election we would have had a strong Liberal contender.

You mean Dion right?

I agree. Kennedy was my choice. He has charisma and the presence of a leader. I wish he had been selected.
 
By the way, I haven't seen Dion much... I haven't been watching national news, only reading it. How's his english?

Does he eventually have a goal of forcing an election or are the Libs giving up on him?
 
Dion is around. He seemed to have vanished up until the Quebec by elections. It would appear that his party is probably the least prepared for a federal election, with many candidates still to be chosen and many nomination papers unsigned. The Quebec wing is ready to pull a knife on him.

His english still sounds rocky at best. From what I hear, he has been trying to improve on it, but there are only so many hours in a day.
 
He should go around with an english trainer wherever he goes correcting his accent and grammer as he speaks.. :p

I like his policies but he has no charisma... he seems like that geek in school that nobody paid attention to.
 
I don't see the weakness on this issue. Harper was saddled with the Afghan mission by the Liberals.

Nonsense. It's all Harper who rammed the extension to 2009 through Parliament as an ultra-short-term ploy to drive a wedge through the Liberal caucus before the leadership convention.

Dion should absolutely vote against this throne speech. We need to get Harper out of the government as soon as possible, and I don't think it's going to get better. He will use a timid opposition afraid to force an election to ram through his lock-em-up-for-marijuana-possession and other policy innovations.

I can see the Liberals picking up a few more seats in BC and possibly the prairies. Ontario will likely stay more-or-less the same in terms of seat totals, with slight gains for the Tories in rural areas and a few possible losses in more urban/suburban areas. There'll maybe a couple losses for the NDP. I can see a few Liberal candidates making a difference in local ridings, like Dan Boudria, Larry DiIanni, and especially Gerard Kennedy.

The Liberals won't gain much in Quebec, except probably Papineau, but it's suddenly much harder to predict. Quebec Liberals are expecting imminent doom, but they have no experience whatsoever with vote splits. The Tory and NDP votes in Quebec come mostly from the Bloc, so if the Bloc loses 20% to the other parties and the Liberals lose 10% to the NDP/Tories, that could swing several Montreal seats to the Liberals. The Tories will on the whole win about 20 seats in Quebec at today's support levels, though, which should make up for most losses elsewhere in the country.

The Maritimes will hopefully be a wipeout for the Tories, with all three seats gone in Newfoundland (though the Danny Williams effect will likely wear off the longer we wait for an election) and a loss of one or two each in NB and NS.

On the whole, I can see a loss of seats for the marginal parties (NDP and BQ) with a gain for the two major parties. Unless something big changes in the campaign, it will be an extremely thin minority either way. One can only hope Harper will come out a few behind. If so, his future as leader will be very brief and he will hopefully be replaced by a much more moderate figure.
 
There'll maybe a couple losses for the NDP. I can see a few Liberal candidates making a difference in local ridings, like Dan Boudria, Larry DiIanni, and especially Gerard Kennedy.

Interesting analysis, not sure if I fully agree though. I guess we can agree at least on the need to get rid of Harper.

Kennedy will most likely win (and would like to see him go on to bigger and better things, he's my kind of Liberal) , though Peggy Nash is a good local MP and replaced the useless Sarmite Bulte. Where's Don Boudria running? I thought he retired a long time ago. And I thought DiIanni was toast with his conviction under the Municipal Elections Act.

Nash is the only Dipper I see headed for defeat. I also think the NDP is more a factor than you assume - it could pick up in BC and possibly even one or two in Saskatchewan or Manitoba, even perhaps NB and NS.
 

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