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Speech from the Throne: Federal Election Time?

Dan Boudria, Don Boudria's son. He's been working his dad's old riding pretty hard for a while now, and the Liberals only lost it by a tiny amount last time. He should be able to take it back. Larry DiIanni, despite what I might think of his dubious political past, is very popular in Hamilton, especially Stoney Creek. I know a lot of people in Hamilton who are all longing for his days as mayor. His name recognition is extremely high, and Wayne Marston (with whom I'm peripherally acquainted) isn't a particularly strong candidate.

I'd like to think of the NDP doing well, especially out west, but I don't see it happening. I don't think they have much of a chance of a pickup in Manitoba, or ever breaking back in to Saskatchewan. Unfortunately, they're well down in the polls in BC, putting some of their recent gains in danger. Rising Liberal and especially Green fortunes in that province will also unfortunately cause some NDP losses due to vote splits. The Greens are picking up all the protest now. I can't see much chance for gain in the Maritimes, except conceivably in Peter Mackay's riding on a vote split. A more likely scenario for that seat will likely be a big collapse of the NDP vote in favour of Elizabeth May.

The election nationally will likely hinge in large part on the NDP vote. If it manages to rise back up to where it was last election or even higher, the Conservatives will almost certainly win. If they stay where they are now or drop a bit, there's a chance of beating Harper.
 
He should go around with an english trainer wherever he goes correcting his accent and grammer as he speaks.. :p

I like his policies but he has no charisma... he seems like that geek in school that nobody paid attention to.

I watched his response to the Speech from the Throne, and I was kind of surprised: he appeared leader-like. If he can sustain this, he has a chance.*


*to go one round against Harper.
 
Unimaginative, I also know a few people in the Hamilton area, but evidently not the same ones as you. I will be surprised if DiIanni wins, although granted he will be in a naturally Liberal riding.

As far as the larger picture: I don't see any party which would really benefit from an election. Harper's personal popularity is apparently much higher than Dion's, but the party's support level (more important) is still stalled out at 34 - 35%, which does not translate to a majority.

The Liberals have virtually no room for growth; after mentioning Kennedy, it takes some real thought to see another riding in Ontario that they might be able to take from the other parties. I can't see them taking any from the NDP. They might take one or two from the Conservatives in Nfld and one in B.C., which would be more than offset by Conservative gains in Quebec. And of course that's not to mention Liberal infighting, renewed again literally today as Dion apparently is finding it difficult to line up new key personnel in Quebec, where he seems to be amazingly unpopular.

As for the NDP, Jack Layton must be acknowledged as a good leader, with more charisma than the others combined. But where would substantial new growth come from, for them? I think they are roughly as high as they will go in the foreseeable future.

No one has any real interest in an election, as no one stands to gain significantly. That's a darn good thing IMO, perhaps they can actually spend some time on the nation's business. The earliest we will see an election is next spring, and it wouldn't surprise me if it were next fall.
 
There's no doubt that the Conservatives are playing the politics game quite strongly right now. They seem to have a lot of strong cards in their hand right now. Hopefully most Canadians can see through all the smoke to the real issues. In my opinion the last election, the Conservatives were given a minority government only in order to punish the Liberals for their recent scandals. I dont think the country as a whole wants to hand over a majority to them this time around. I am still shocked that the Conservatives were able to establish such a foothold in Quebec last time around and stand to build on it... Quebec is always assumed to be socially progressive in direct contradiction to Harper's outlook. Of course he did a good job of trying to buy additional votes in that province through lavish spending there during the past term.

Harper is just getting too cocky and power hungry now... which most people have known was his true character all along. He's done a good job of coming across as moderate during the minority government, I think just as an act to instill confidence that he can be trusted with a majority. Scary times... hope we dont go down that road because I really dont think he reflects the attitudes of the country as a whole....

Its all in the name, just think about it... Conservative - lets conserve the ways of the past which benefitted mainly wealthy white men. We need progressive leadership and policies now! Maybe this is the chance for the Greens to make a big break through?
 
Larry Di Ianni will bring Hamilton East back to the Liberals. Hamilton East riding is known for big Liberal names like John Munro, Sheila Copps, Tony Valeri. Actually I believe every Hamilton East MP has been a cabinet minister in the government side for the last 25 years.

During municipal elections Larry got overwhelming support from Stoney Creek. He's a former Stoney Creek councillor. The Hamilton East riding now includes all of Stoney Creek hence the name change to Hamilton East - Stoney Creek riding.

The one thing I will give to Larry is his ability to get things done with leadership such as ending the 50+ year debate over Red Hill Creek expressway, getting money for new industrial parks and cleaning up the harbour.
 
There's no doubt that the Conservatives are playing the politics game quite strongly right now. They seem to have a lot of strong cards in their hand right now. Hopefully most Canadians can see through all the smoke to the real issues. In my opinion the last election, the Conservatives were given a minority government only in order to punish the Liberals for their recent scandals. I dont think the country as a whole wants to hand over a majority to them this time around. I am still shocked that the Conservatives were able to establish such a foothold in Quebec last time around and stand to build on it... Quebec is always assumed to be socially progressive in direct contradiction to Harper's outlook. Of course he did a good job of trying to buy additional votes in that province through lavish spending there during the past term.

Harper is just getting too cocky and power hungry now... which most people have known was his true character all along. He's done a good job of coming across as moderate during the minority government, I think just as an act to instill confidence that he can be trusted with a majority. Scary times... hope we dont go down that road because I really dont think he reflects the attitudes of the country as a whole....

Its all in the name, just think about it... Conservative - lets conserve the ways of the past which benefitted mainly wealthy white men. We need progressive leadership and policies now! Maybe this is the chance for the Greens to make a big break through?

Odd, because every party plays politics, not just the Conservatives. Presently, the NDP is in battle not with the Conservative party, but with the Liberals. Layton realizes he will never be Prime Minister, but he can possibly be the leader of the opposition. His target is the Liberals, and the Conservatives will be happy to oblige him in that pursuit. For them, there is nothing like three weak parties to face off against when you've finally unified the conservative vote.

As for Canadians seeing through the Conservative smoke to see real issues, remember that a fair number of Canadians support the Conservative party as a definite choice. It's not like these people have been lead astray or are stupid. These voters have a Conservative outlook, and if they are to be convinced to vote otherwise, they will need something more than a suggestion that they are deluded.

As to the Conservatives getting into office solely because as a result of punishing the Liberals, that might explain some votes, but not all votes for them. Canada has had Conservative governments in the past, and now that the two former conservative parties have come together, there will be more Conservative governments possible now and into the future. This present government has polled close to majority territory on a few occasions. They have also lead a pretty uneventful government, something that can suggest stability to voters looking for such qualities. With respect to the idea of stability, it is the centre left that is fractured now.

As for Quebec, a funny place it is in terms of politics. But the appeal of the Conservatives has to do with the devolution of powers to the provinces, and the curtailment of federal powers. The Conservatives are viewed as the federal party that can offer that promise. That suits the soft nationalist sentiments quite well. Going beyond that, if one looks at health care as a barometer, Quebec has by far the most privatized quantity of health care in the country. It's not lilely that the Conservatives will bother them about it. The Liberals studiously avoided doing so. So I guess the word progressive is open to interpretation.

As for Harper being "power-hungry," every political leader can be characterized as such. It's an asset of sorts in politics. Because Harper is a conservative, and to a degree a social conservative, he is going to offer up policy positions that satisfy the social conservatives of the country. But I think he is going to meet them only half way. At this juncture he probably is realistic enough to understand that a centre position (or a position as close to centre as possible) is the one that most likely would be the least problematic with a large number of voters. This allows him to balance off his more conservative agenda with items more likely to be acceptable to a majority of the voters. It's not a bad strategy; it has worked for many right of centre parties - and left of centre parties as well.

Since the issue of race was addressed, it's worth pointing out that the appeal of the Conservative party is hardly restricted to white males with above average incomes. Such an assumption is a strategic error. I say this and the other things because, as a non-conservative, if you really want to change government you need more than just prejudices and presumptions on who the Conservative voters are, and why they vote the way they do. The Conservatives are in power. They have a chance of forming a majority in the next election. So rather than assuming errors in thinking on the part of their supporters, or invoking easy prejudices, it would make much more sense to actually generate new ideas and construct new policies that stand for and project the ideals of the centre (or left of centre), not as a means to answering the conservatives, but as a means of setting a course for the future that is different from the conservative ideals that may found to be disagreeable.
 
My personal belief is that the Liberals have got to start writing voters off. It sounds bad, but as an opposition party, you just can't win by trying to please everybody. It doesn't matter if the party gets 10% or 20% in Alberta ridings. There's no way to win a seat there. Same for many rural areas across the country. The party should run on a strong environmental platform, including a carbon tax and other measures. Yes, it will hurt the tar sands and yes, the National Post will scream. So what? None of them will ever vote Liberal anyway, and it would loosen up a lot of NDP and Green voters. Dion's got to come across as decisive, and the best way to do that is with clear policy. Harper doesn't have any policy to speak of (at least that he's willing to reveal) beyond minor gimmicks, so he's definitely vulnerable to a real policy campaign.

It will play well in urban areas across the country, in Quebec, and likely in the Maritimes. The height of irony -- it might actually even do well in Alberta where many people are starting to talk about the damage caused to their environment by their extraction economy.

A big obstacle is Goodale, who's a giant in the party but who also opposes all sorts of measures because they might mean endangering seats on the prairies. All one of them.

A seat is a seat, whether you win it with 35% or 60%, or whether it's in downtown Toronto or southwestern Ontario or rural Alberta. The central party pours resources into one downtown Toronto seat when those resources could have saved three seats or more in southwestern Ontario which are starved for help. I'm sure the same is true all over the country.
 
i might remind you winning 100 seats in ONtario for the liberals is over and Quebec has gone down a lot...


So alienating the country west of Manitoba is not a smart idea... Trudeau learned that lesson in 1979 and 1972.
 
My personal belief is that the Liberals have got to start writing voters off. It sounds bad, but as an opposition party, you just can't win by trying to please everybody. It doesn't matter if the party gets 10% or 20% in Alberta ridings. There's no way to win a seat there. Same for many rural areas across the country. The party should run on a strong environmental platform, including a carbon tax and other measures. Yes, it will hurt the tar sands and yes, the National Post will scream. So what? None of them will ever vote Liberal anyway, and it would loosen up a lot of NDP and Green voters. Dion's got to come across as decisive, and the best way to do that is with clear policy. Harper doesn't have any policy to speak of (at least that he's willing to reveal) beyond minor gimmicks, so he's definitely vulnerable to a real policy campaign.

It will play well in urban areas across the country, in Quebec, and likely in the Maritimes. The height of irony -- it might actually even do well in Alberta where many people are starting to talk about the damage caused to their environment by their extraction economy.

A seat is a seat, whether you win it with 35% or 60%, or whether it's in downtown Toronto or southwestern Ontario or rural Alberta. The central party pours resources into one downtown Toronto seat when those resources could have saved three seats or more in southwestern Ontario which are starved for help. I'm sure the same is true all over the country.

With respect to issues, I would say that the greatest possibility for the Liberals is urban issues, or issues of interest to urban-based voters. That is where their greatest strength is in terms of actual and possible popularity. There are many ridings in the country, particularly out west, where the Liberals could earn a seat if the policies resonated better with where the voters lived. Yes, it is difficult for a federal party to involve itself in city issues, but that is why it is such a shame that the Liberal focus on cities melted into communities, and then just simply melted.

A carbon tax for the sake of taxation is bad policy. It will be viewed as a tax and spend issue as the money will end up in general revenue and not used on anything in particular. Carbon taxes will only increase the cost of energy, which is already increasing in price. Also note, none of the parties actually have real policy plans with respect to their concerns over GHG's, they just gave differing targets for reduction.

With respect to the environment, rather than being punative, the Liberals should generate policies that actually serve as a means to aiding businesses in reducing their negative environmental effects and impact. It would be more positive in outlook, be more progressive in attitude and protect jobs as much as possible.
 
it wasn't too long ago that the conservative party almost vanished. it's too bad they joined the CRAP's together to form one giant turd.
 
You're absolutely right, lordmandeep. But times have also changed from when the West voted as a monolithic bloc. I said write off Alberta. Saskatchewan is a bit of a write-off because of the way the ridings are designed. I think an urban/environmental platform would do very well in the B.C. Lower Mainland and Winnipeg.

With respect to issues, I would say that the greatest possibility for the Liberals is urban issues, or issues of interest to urban-based voters. That is where their greatest strength is in terms of actual and possible popularity. There are many ridings in the country, particularly out west, where the Liberals could earn a seat if the policies resonated better with where the voters lived. Yes, it is difficult for a federal party to involve itself in city issues, but that is why it is such a shame that the Liberal focus on cities melted into communities, and then just simply melted.

You're right. We can't completely write off rural areas, but you should be able to win those as much as anything with local candidates. As a whole though, an urban/environment platform would be as good as anything for a big win. The only catch is that two of Canada's five biggest cities will never vote Liberal for essentially tribal reasons.

A carbon tax for the sake of taxation is bad policy. It will be viewed as a tax and spend issue as the money will end up in general revenue and not used on anything in particular. Carbon taxes will only increase the cost of energy, which is already increasing in price. Also note, none of the parties actually have real policy plans with respect to their concerns over GHG's, they just gave differing targets for reduction.

I disagree. Carbon tax, with revenue used to offset existing corporate and personal income tax, would be much more economically sensible. Even the C.D. Howe Institute is saying it.

With respect to the environment, rather than being punative, the Liberals should generate policies that actually serve as a means to aiding businesses in reducing their negative environmental effects and impact. It would be more positive in outlook, be more progressive in attitude and protect jobs as much as possible.

I know you have different views on the environment in general and as an inssue, but I think that the carrot approach can only go so far. I also think that market mechanisms like carbon trading and a carbon tax are by far the most efficient and equitable way to spread the burden of reduction around.

What's wrong with taxing people for doing things we don't want them to do, like emit carbon into the air, rather than for things we want them to do, like earn and consume. If anything, it's simply putting a price on a commons, which is always a sensible idea.
 
I've seen some very convincing evidence that a cap-and-trade system is basically doomed to failure, and has the potential to be quite economically damaging vis-a-vis a basic carbon tax.

It'd be much more politically palatable for most developed nations to agree to a minimum tax on carbon that each will charge in their jurisdictions. Existing carbon taxes such as fuel taxes ought to be taken into account so as not to punish countries that have already taken steps to address this issue. Since all the revenues will be available for use by each national government as they see fit, whether for tax relief or new spending (though more advisedly on tax reduction), there will be no screams about 'hot air' money being shipped abroad for overseas carbon credits. It also will help to stem the flight of carbon-intensive activities to jurisdictions where the carbon tax is not applied, made easy by applying tariffs at some slightly punitive rate.

Carbon tax is better than carbon trading as it allows governments to steer consumption levels indirectly without exposing their economies to possibly sharp price swings for carbon emission credits (it's hard to say what the price elasticity of carbon emitting is, but it's probably quite low in the short run--ie, large swings in price cause relatively small changes in demand).

That said, Hydrogen, why do you think its a better idea for government to throw money at people and businesses in an attempt to lower emissions? Empirical evidence demonstrates that in situations such as this, subsidies tend to be very inefficient while taxes would work quite well.
 
That said, Hydrogen, why do you think its a better idea for government to throw money at people and businesses in an attempt to lower emissions? Empirical evidence demonstrates that in situations such as this, subsidies tend to be very inefficient while taxes would work quite well.

So you can state that no subsidy has ever worked? Ever? You claim to have empirical evidence to this effect? No government stimulus ever affected, supported or enhanced economic change in a positive manner at any point? You go to a university, right? Think about that institution and the subsidies related to it. Then think of the downstream effects.

Taxes for what? To do what with? I don't see any particular plan related to these newly desired taxes. A carbon tax does not directly lower emissions of carbon dioxide. It does not directly fix a problem. Maybe we should charge a lead tax and force everyone to measure the lead content of their products - or old house paint. Bad anaology, but my point is that the real solution relates to removing lead, not to taxing it.

Taxes are indirect in there action. If excessive, they are inflationary, and can have considerable negative effects on the economy. Besides, what aspects of carbon dioxide (and we mean carbon dioxide, because carbon and carbon dioxide are a little different different) are being taken into account when considering tax? Cars? Or do we tax people for their intake of carbohydrates and exhilation of carbon dioxide? Do people get a carbon tax credit for having trees on their property and plants in their homes? Is the tax guaged to the amount of carbon dioxide in the air at any give time, or at any given location? Should this be adjusted in the autumn when the carbon dioxide levels rise diue to trees loosing their leaves? Should it be adjusted for the carbon dioxide domes found over cities, but not found fifty or kilometres out? Is this designed to give rise to a whole new class of carbon accountants?
 
Yes, but the question is not carbon tax or no carbon tax. It's carbon tax or any number of other options to raise revenue for the government. Research has shown that a carbon tax would be significantly less economically damaging than many taxes that we use today, and would have an added benefit of discouraging anti-social behaviour. If we levied a carbon tax and used the added revenue to reduce low-bracket PIT and corporate income tax, there would be a significant economic benefit on top of the environmental benefits.
 
Raise revenue for the government for what? I hear carbon tax bandied about, but as nothing more than a method to raise general revenue for the sake of general revenue. It's just another means for people (who support this tax) to feel as if they are doing something without actually having to do anything - except to pay money to government. Add to that, the more money you have, the more carbon tax you can pay, and you don't have to change anything about why you are paying more of this type of tax (pumping the dreaded plant food carbon dioxide).

Unimaginative, to what "anti-social" behaviour are you making reference to. Breathing produces carbon dioxide. Is that anti-social (halitosis excluded)? How is carbon dioxide anti-social? What does that even mean?

In all the defence of this tax as economically "less damaging" comes the question as to how it will be applied, and how extensive it could be used. I've not seen anything that suggests limits as to how such a tax could be applied, or how high it can be set at, so suggesting that it will be economically "less-damaging" is a bit of a premature judgement.
 

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