So, um, when are condo prices supposed to drop again?

[Mr.Colley]

Residential real estate has a 14-18 year price cycle. That's the way it has been for the last century, and in all markets. We've had the upswing, and now we have the downswing. From what I see, the only ones who deny this are those who make their living from selling real estate.

Like all markets it goes in a cycle, Now is a good time to buy, renovate, wait and in a few years sell. specially if oyu can do the work yourself but do your research into zoning, as well as into what future develomnets are planned for that area...

 

[daveto]

Mr.Colley, when in the past ten years or next ten years would you say is not a good time to do that?

 

[andrejeffry]

Mr.Colley, when in the past ten years or next ten years would you say is not a good time to do that?

The thing is, the ones who've been saying that it's a good time to buy for the past 10 years, are the clear winners. The ones who hesitate are the clear losers.

so which ones to follow? the optimist with winning dollars to show for, or the pesimist who's been sitting on the sideline watching the winner take home the dollars?

 

[yyzer]

for anyone waiting for "the bottom" to buy, I am afraid you have already missed it.....prices are already on the rise, and not just in downtown....

resales out in Mississauga seem to be selling in less than a week, and there are reports of multiple offers on choice properties....and that's in the burbs...

amazing...

 

[daveto]

The thing is, the ones who've been saying that it's a good time to buy for the past 10 years, are the clear winners. The ones who hesitate are the clear losers.

so which ones to follow? the optimist with winning dollars to show for, or the pesimist who's been sitting on the sideline watching the winner take home the dollars?

Andre,

You didn't answer the question. I'll rephrase it. If there is a real estate price cycle of 14-18 years, then when between 1995-2013 is it a bad time to buy in Toronto?

Alternatively, do you simply disagree with the theory of the real estate price cycle?

here is a link
http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/bust-will-follow-boom---but-when.aspx).
But a quick google will provide many other articles about it.

In answer to your question, re optimist vs pessimist? I would prefer to follow the person who makes rational financial decisions not based on emotion.

 

[Eug]

for anyone waiting for "the bottom" to buy, I am afraid you have already missed it.....prices are already on the rise, and not just in downtown....

resales out in Mississauga seem to be selling in less than a week, and there are reports of multiple offers on choice properties....and that's in the burbs...

amazing...

1) It will be interesting to see what the Toronto June (price and unit sales) numbers are. Those should be available next week from the Toronto Real Estate Board.

2) The argument is that the prices are somewhat artificially elevated due to lower interest rates. So, while prices now are still similar to 2008 levels, we may see real price drops in several months or next year.

Personally I think there is some logic to #2. I just think those who have been waiting for the big crash might have missed the opportunity to buy. Some people have been saying the crash is imminent ever since the early 2000s, and we all know what happened. I do think it's foolish to think that prices are guaranteed to rise from now on for the next five years, but I also think that any drop in Toronto in the foreseeable future won't mirror the huge drops in places like Las Vegas or whatever.

 

[Shtopor]

I would recommend to look at Japan RE for the past 20 years. They did what Fed now does (artificially low interest rates)and for the past 20 years their RE went only down (so much about optimist versus pessimist). This superlow mortgages attract buyers with no money, essentially they 'RENT' RE. I personally know a guy who works in Pizza delivery bussiness for cash ( officially he gets minimum wage) , one thing I don't know how he qualified to get mortgage, the second, he told me if US scenario unfolds in Canada he will just bring the key. I don't know why Canadian government allows this to happen, monthly payments for RE dwarf everything else, which in turn hurts local bussinesses ( each year people have less and less to spend on other things ).
RE covering in all newspapers is just pathetic. ("last chance to get in"," now is best time to buy RE" are the slogans ).
GO to Garth Turner blog http://www.greaterfool.ca/ to hear another view on RE, and once u read what those folks think you might think twice if that is a good time to buy.

 

[cdr108]

one of the things i've noticed recently has to do with CMV tax assessments.

some individuals, especially those who were the first to tout booming values, were the first to cry bloody murder when the high tax assessments came out this year.

i guess they have nothing to complain about now since values have gone up again.

 

[rbt]

Pizza delivery bussiness for cash ( officially he gets minimum wage) , one thing I don't know how he qualified to get mortgage, the second, he told me if US scenario unfolds in Canada he will just bring the key.

Wish him luck with that. Lots of differences between the Canadian and US systems which encourage Power of Sale but also tends to make the debt follow you even after you give up the keys.

He would be very wise to consult a lawyer before doing that.

 

[slowtyper]

Hi All,

Thanks for the info and I am enjoying the discussions.

Anyone have a method of finding a buyers agent they like? As I mentioned, I didn't like the first one I found (who emailed me that 'buy buy buy' routine).

Any suggestions on other areas of the city I should be looking at to buy a 1+1 or 2BR condo? I wouldn't mind living in Markham depending if the price is right however close to a subway would be more ideal but not super important.

Any of you been looking to buy in North York recently? I'd like to hear about your experiences if possible.

Thanks

 

[Hank]

Lots of differences between the Canadian and US systems which encourage Power of Sale but also tends to make the debt follow you even after you give up the keys.

Exactly. In the US you can just walk away from your mortgage if it's worth more than the property, but in Canada you have to personally guarantee your mortgage so even if you walk away the bank can still go after you personally for any shortfall.

 

[Eug]

some individuals, especially those who were the first to tout booming values, were the first to cry bloody murder when the high tax assessments came out this year.

I haven't noticed that it was those people specifically. From what I've noticed, it's people who have received large increases in their tax assessments, regardless if they have been touting booming home prices or not.

In fact, one group that this has hit the hardest IMO is those who bought 20 years ago and are now on fixed retirement incomes.

Exactly. In the US you can just walk away from your mortgage if it's worth more than the property, but in Canada you have to personally guarantee your mortgage so even if you walk away the bank can still go after you personally for any shortfall.

Yep. The lender in Canada can go after his non-home equity assets, should he default on his mortgage. Mind you, it sounds like he has no wealth to go after.

 

[Solaris]

Anyone have a method of finding a buyers agent they like? As I mentioned, I didn't like the first one I found ...

Any suggestions on other areas of the city I should be looking at to buy a 1+1 or 2BR condo? I wouldn't mind living in Markham depending if the price is right however close to a subway would be more ideal but not super important.

To find a good RE agent ... I recommend gettting agents referred from friends + family, which is probably more reliable than sources from an unidentifiable public forum member ~ (no offense to UT )

If you don't HAVE TO be on the subway, certainly your buying costs would be lower ...

(disclaimer: I am not an agent, this is simply opinion)

In Markham/Richmond Hill, projects you may consider looking at are Times Group's Majestic Court or Liberty's NOA @ Warden+Hwy 7, Times Group's Eden Park Towers @ Leslie+Hwy 7, Empire's Vintages at Vineyards @ Yonge+16th, although not architecturally outstanding, these projects all have decent layouts, good finishings and affordable pricing compared to other developments in the same area

good luck in your search

 

[slowtyper]

Awesome thinks for the reply. I will scout out those areas!

Unfortunately I am relatively new to Toronto and don't have any friends or family here that have any experience with realtors. Anyways, I'd rather do a bit more research on my own first before even attempting to find a realtor at this point.

 

[cdr108]

while I agree with Solaris that 'if you don't HAVE TO be on the subway, your buying costs would be lower ...'; the lower buying cost of living away from the subway lines would be offset by the higher costs of having/maintaining a car.

it will depend on your lifestyle, where you work, etc.