High-frequency 150-meter-long trainsets can move more people than the Lakeshore West 30-min all day service, by the sheer extra frequency of single-levels
Ok, lets take a look at the Lakeshore East, morning peek.
I count 13 trains that arrive at Union Station between 6:30 a.m. – 9:30 a.m.
Oshawa: 05:47, 06:12, 06:27, 06:47, 07:00, 07:15, 07:28, 07:53, 08:25,
Whitby: 07:50
Pickering: 07:23, 07:55, 08:25
Using ALP-46 and Bombardier BiLevel Coachs:
12 coach x 134 seats = 1,608 seats.
12 coach x 25.91 m = 310.92 m + locomotive (19.51 m) = 330.43 m
13 Trains x 1,608 seats = 20,904 seats.
Using Nippon Sharyo DMU made into EMU:
13 cars x 79 seats = 1,027 seats
13 cars x 25.91 m = 336.83 m
13 Trains x 1,027 seats = 13,351 seats.
Alright so we can't replace the BiLevel Coachs 1 to 1 so lets do say you say and run 150m trains more often.
Using Nippon Sharyo DMU made into EMU:
6 cars x 79 seats = 474 seats
6 cars x 25.91 m = 155.46 m
26 Trains x 474 seats = 12,324 seats.
20,904 seats - 12,324 seats = 8,580 seats short.
How many 155m trains would GO need then?
8,580 seats / 474 seats = 18 Trains.
26 Trains + 18 Trains = 44 Trains.
You would need 44 Nippon Sharyo EMU (155 m) to equal 13 GO trains (330.43 m).
20,904 seats / 1,027 seats = 20.3 trains
You would need 20.3 Nippon Sharyo EMU (336.83 m) to equal 13 GO trains (330.43 m).
53% more trains per line just to maintain current service.
1 ALP-46 + 12 Bombardier BiLevel Coach = CAD$50,912,457.58
13 Nippon Sharyo EMU = CAD$65,926,949.27
Just thinking about the cost difference, it doesn't make scene to me to buy 336.83 m Nippon Sharyo EMUs. You would spend CAD$15,014,491.69 extra per train and you need MORE of them!
13 GO trains = $661,861,948.54
20 Nippon Sharyo EMU trains = $1,318,538,985.40
Single level emus are dead from a price point of view, i'm sure union station could handle the extra trains due to the lower dwell times of single level trains though.
Minus the 2.6 billion de-facto pre-existing commitment by the province.
That $2.6Billion is included in the $3.1 Billion.
"Retrofit Existing GO Line Tracks" ($500m), "Utility Upgrades" ($1bn), "Operating Systems" ($250m), in addition to catenary ($265m) and a few other tasks that electrifation will require, so all of this easily total to roughly the $2-$3bn range. So when I earlier say "electrification" for 2.6bn, I also include these line-items. Utility upgrades are needed for electrifation! So electrifation-related expenses (other than catenary) is over 2 billon! These expenses were going to be incurred anyway for GO RER, so the province has already de-facto budgeted for their $2.6bn share. That leaves $5.2bn for both federal and municipal to solve.
Well the problem with that cost estimate is that it doesn't break things down very far. For example, the utility upgrades, who knows where most of that cost is. Some of it must come from eglinton part. So we can't say if how much of that is covered by the province doing electrification.
What may affect the budget more, is choice of trainset (light rail, heavy rail, single level, bilevel, low platform, high platform), as that affects various budget elements (vehicle and station expense). I expect them to choose heavy rail vehicles for SmartTrack (and the province may very well cover that premium), as light rail vehicles aren't an efficient use of the GO corridor, as SmartTrack will essentially de-facto operate as the GO RER service. I would expect vehicle length to be more like 150 meter; longer than most light rail vehicles, and shorter than a GO train, since it moves a lot of people by virtue of frequent service (15min and better), and the large GO trains can be used as supplement during peak periods too (if the stations aren't converted to high platforms).
Smart track will have to use Heavy rail, there is no choice. Light rail cannot run on the same tracks as heavy rail. If you look at the SRT you'll see there is a earth berm in between it and the GO Uxbridge Sub. I cannot see space along the Kingston Sub to fit an earth berm and two smart track tracks.
I'm not convinced given the price difference between the different trains that it make scene to run single level EMUs during the day and the normal GO trains during rush hour. As i've show above you'd need so many single level EMUs during rush hour that it would be cheaper just to run the longer normal GO trains during the day time.
Yes i agree with you that Union is a big bottleneck but that will only be solved when either the Lakeshore line run under Union Station.
To me the most likely Smart track plan would be to run it as a separate service, with its own trains and stations, GO trains will stop at the current stations and Smart track trains will stop at the infill stations and the current GO train stations. I'm not sure if there would be enough space everywhere for the extra tracks needed to let GO trains pass the slower Smart track trains. They will be slower because they stop more often.
Finally, there is zero chance GO will switch platform heights, the cost is far to much for to little gain. As i hope i have convinced you, single level trains can't help GO. So if we are stuck using bi-level, they will have longer dwell times due to their nature. Changing the platform heights wont help them unload faster.
