Ok, I see you are doubting the viability rather than whether it is techniclly possible. Apologies.
I confess to no knowing what admoish means - I can't even put the word in contect. A couple beers to many perhaps?
One typo off (fixed OP), but it is
admonish. No worries about your beers, it is not a common word.
Can you point out a single European city that deferred a piece of LRT line because the demand was too low - and then went ahead and built heavy rail only the same alignment with 15-minute service instead? How is skepticism that we'll really be building heavy rail on Eglinton West silly?
This is a legitimate debate, and there will be many disagreements from all sides.
However, I must admonish that the demand won't be too low (in due time). The now-woefully-outdated study doesn't account for huge factors outlined below. Specific huge factors weren't even factored in back when they did the study for ECLRT. Read on to realize why.
Yes, there's a true legitimate debate about the route too - Square One Mississauga for ECLRT or SmartTrack, would change the passenger throughput math completely. A station in downtown mississauga suddenly makes any kind of Eglinton rail more useful. I see it is possibly only a future SmartTrack extension plan away (~8km from Airport Corporate) but, of course, extending ECLRT there from Mt. Dennis may even be cheaper than the Eglinton, despite the extra distance. I'd think more of Mississauga would want to catch a SmartTrack train due to its downtown destination unlike ECLRT. But the suburbs between Dixie area and Square One can easily turn this to a Scarborough Subway debate. No doubt countless debate ahead. Airport or Corporate Airport Centre or Square One for ECLRT? The ultimate end goal might be ECLRT to airport, and SmartTrack to Square One. That would, in my opinion, justify passenger traffic (more justifiable than the Scarborough Subway, and worth tunneling for) for heavy rail under Eglinton, with so many destinations opened up, including thanks to the future Mt Dennis interchange. I like the SmartTrack creating the Eglinton spur (partly trenched where ROW possible, partly underground where ROW is gone) only if they eventually extend it to Square One downtown, otherwise, it is the part of SmartTrack plan that will be the most costly per passenger in Toronto if it never extends (Shepperd II, worse than Scarborough subway). Many Euro cities are brave enough to phase extensions through low densities in the pursuit of a jackpot (like Square One), and while politically spun differently on this side, this isn't precedentless and is far smarter than the Sheppard/Scarborough subway.
We could see Tory could play the "big cost savings" card and chop Eglinton in favour of an ECLRT extension along the SmartTrack spur, arguing SmartTrack justifies the ECLRT extension, as they did not earlier estimate passenger traffic assuming existence of SmartTrack. And we could see Tory instead play the "eventual Square One" card instead with SmartTrack. I see it going in either direction if different choices from a feasibility study are presented to public referendum. I am not opposed either direction.
I feel, get the transit projects rolling onwards quickly, as it makes a lot of sense to have some kind of trackage to begin breaking into Mississauga towards its downtown. With the BRT (under way) and LRT (or SmartTrack), transit options improves dramatically, and more on level footing with Scarborough (with its access to SmartTrack and the controversial subway). The concentration of condos, businesses, and retail, finally now make it possible to depend less on cars in the urban Mississauga portion (the downtown area) and multiple rapid transit options can even eliminate the need for car ownership (and already now do for some new Mississauga condo residents). My opinion of the ideal eventual "Tory" scenario is ECLRT to airport & SmartTrack (an extra extension later) underground to Mississauga downtown, but I can settle for cutting the spur to make it fund a complete LRT all the way to Mississauga downtown. This brings rough parity to both Mississauga and Scarborough into GTA's emerging rapid transit fabric. On that view, the Eglinton spur makes a lot of sense, even if it temporarily (for its first ten years) doesn't justify itself fully yet. Even European cities do phases of construction through hard-to-justify routes to an eventual jackpot of a destination, and I have feeling when Tory threw darts and drew the diagram, he already knew Square One is only a future extension initiative's away. Priveleged as he may be, there are a lot of undisclosed sensible reasons why the Eglinton spur makes sense, even if it doesn't right now.
But
I would certainly become opposed to the Eglinton spur, if it was declared to be the permanent terminus of SmartTrack. We could get stuck with almost a Shepperd Subway II (although it will not be quite that bad, due to the single-seat-ride capability ability all the way to Markham, which pretty much guarantees full SmartTrack trains going through the Union segment). However, the real-geometry (non-Beck-style) route map of SmartTrack makes it obvious that the SmartTrack is "aimed" towards Mississauga downtown, strongly suggestive of a politically easy future extension initiative less than the length of the Scarborough subway. The location of the current Airport Corporate Center SmartTrack endpoint is it is politically far easier for any future government to introduce an extension to Square One area, than attempting to extend Shepperd. If this extension does come to fruitition in 10-15 years from now, I guarantee you passenger numbers many, many times 800pph (even offpeak) in the Eglinton spur, once a downtown Mississauga stop is involved & the Mt Dennis interchange exists (many interchange options will exist at Dennis for everyone going in all directions from it: airport, ECLRT, mississauga, Union, GO trains, etc). People even turn down Mississauga job offers because it's just so hard to get there by transit quickly (I'm one of them, too). That would no longer be the case if there's a dramatic improvement in multiple convenient rapid transit options (not just BRT and distant GO stops). Estimates do not account for transit between downtown Mississauga and the rest of GTA. Old estimates do not account for the massive future usefulness of the Dennis interchange. That said, I certainly wouldn't be opposed to a jiggle-around of the plans, extend ECLRT instead along the original SmartTrack spur, and instead ake SmartTrack eventually, over time, continue to Mt. Pleasant or Brampton instead (more in tune with GO RER plans).
Cities smaller than Mississauga (and less average population density than downtown portion of Mississauga) benefit from underground subway or RER-type systems with reasonable farebox recovery ratios far better than Shepperd. In that point of view, I am not opposed to SmartTrack (with its obvious extendability). I think
Tory's keeping the Mississauga/Square One downtown SmartTrack card close to his chest, and will draw it in due time, in months or in years. If he doesn't do the switcheroo with ECLRT or a BRT upgrade -- trading a small Eglinton spur for a complete LRT between Mt Dennis & Square One -- I would not be opposed to such an idea either if it's presented and marketed well that the population actually likes it better than the SmartTrack option. More service for the same price of cancelling the Eglinton spur once a feasibility study shows how expensive it is, and displays a buffet choice of alternate attractive options. Then Tory might play off such an opportunity, as long as it doesn't delay SmartTrack. Hopefully Tory is smart enough to insure against delay from political wrangling of an Eglington-less SmartTrack (by phasing SmartTrack in a way so it can be shovels-in-ground before Eglinton is approved, even if it means Eglinton may take more than the 7-year timeline).
Even the January 16
SmartTrack status update yesterday, on page 4,
confirms a feasibility study on Eglinton rapid transit options will be occuring, which fully leaves the door open on chopping the SmartTrack Eglinton spur in favour of a better Eglinton option. The report even says "optimal phasing" options will be determined. That can allow the Eglinton to be phased separately. In my opinion, it is a very sensible, and intelligent 24-page status update on SmartTrack. A bone thrown to anti-Eglinton-spur arguments, and also makes economic sense to compare all the options that can proceed quickly, and the upcoming feasibility study might be when both the "Square One future" card and the "get rid of the Eglinton spur" card gets played out.
