Richard White
Senior Member
I believe Willowdale was already boxed in but you are correct I doubt it will ever happen.
That area is still very residential but there is not enough demand. It would be the new Bessarion.
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Sheppard Line 4 Subway Extension (Proposed)
- Thread starter denfromoakvillemilton
- Start date
I believe Willowdale was already boxed in but you are correct I doubt it will ever happen.
That area is still very residential but there is not enough demand. It would be the new Bessarion.
nfitz
Superstar
Bessarion ridership has grown significantly in recent years. Back in 2009 it was about 5% of the total Sheppard line ridership. In 2022 it was about 11%. Ridership at Bessarion is up 65% from 2009 - even though overall subway ridership is down significantly because of Covid. For example in 2009 it had about 1/3 the ridership of Roseday, while in 2022 it's approaching the same level as Rosedale.
Build it in a residential area and they will come ... eventually.
Allandale25
Senior Member
Northern Light
Superstar
Took me ages to find the @#$# deck..........Metrolinx would not choose straight-forward placement.....
I will extract a few for everyone.
First up The Consultant Enrichment Program (alternate name, the delay spending the real money on the real thing program)
The initial theatre goes to Fall '24:
Slide which suggests one legitimate reason for going west of Yonge; while amusingly omitting the real one:
Straight forward map showing potential connections to other transit lines:
There's a mediocre survey that's open to comment through Dec 7th, you can find that well hidden offering here:
Scroll down the page to this image:
You can click there and under 'polls' you'll find the survey. (insert eye roll here, LOL)
I will extract a few for everyone.
First up The Consultant Enrichment Program (alternate name, the delay spending the real money on the real thing program)
The initial theatre goes to Fall '24:
Slide which suggests one legitimate reason for going west of Yonge; while amusingly omitting the real one:
Straight forward map showing potential connections to other transit lines:
There's a mediocre survey that's open to comment through Dec 7th, you can find that well hidden offering here:
Learn more about the Sheppard Extension.
Consultation meetings for the Sheppard Extension.
www.metrolinx.com
Scroll down the page to this image:
You can click there and under 'polls' you'll find the survey. (insert eye roll here, LOL)
afransen
Senior Member
It is however kind of astounding that the line is currently only moving 10% of its theoretical capacity at peak.
Amare
Senior Member
The Consultant Enrichment Program I like that name, you should trademark it @Northern Light! I had a real good laugh reading that.Took me ages to find the @#$# deck..........Metrolinx would not choose straight-forward placement.....
I will extract a few for everyone.
First up The Consultant Enrichment Program (alternate name, the delay spending the real money on the real thing program)
View attachment 518899
The initial theatre goes to Fall '24:
View attachment 518900
Slide which suggests one legitimate reason for going west of Yonge; while amusingly omitting the real one:
View attachment 518902
Straight forward map showing potential connections to other transit lines:
View attachment 518901
There's a mediocre survey that's open to comment through Dec 7th, you can find that well hidden offering here:
Learn more about the Sheppard Extension.
Consultation meetings for the Sheppard Extension.www.metrolinx.com
Scroll down the page to this image:
View attachment 518903
You can click there and under 'polls' you'll find the survey. (insert eye roll here, LOL)
Coolibop
Active Member
Why are we ignoring Go transit lines to make a point? We should be thinking of the network...not TTC vs Go.
Coolstar
Senior Member
Took me ages to find the @#$# deck..........Metrolinx would not choose straight-forward placement.....
I will extract a few for everyone.
First up The Consultant Enrichment Program (alternate name, the delay spending the real money on the real thing program)
View attachment 518899
The initial theatre goes to Fall '24:
View attachment 518900
Slide which suggests one legitimate reason for going west of Yonge; while amusingly omitting the real one:
View attachment 518902
Straight forward map showing potential connections to other transit lines:
View attachment 518901
There's a mediocre survey that's open to comment through Dec 7th, you can find that well hidden offering here:
Learn more about the Sheppard Extension.
Consultation meetings for the Sheppard Extension.www.metrolinx.com
Scroll down the page to this image:
View attachment 518903
You can click there and under 'polls' you'll find the survey. (insert eye roll here, LOL)
Posted the slide deck a few pages back. I guess I should've worded it better and extracted the content.
EnviroTO
Senior Member
I think we should capture the whole lifecycle:
Backroom Discussion -> Grandstand -> Consultant Enrichment & Theatre -> Over-promise -> Deliver with optimism -> Under-deliver -> Define target -> Test -> Remediate -> Anger -> Acceptance -> Soft Launch -> Grand Opening -> Paint ceiling.
Backroom Discussion -> Grandstand -> Consultant Enrichment & Theatre -> Over-promise -> Deliver with optimism -> Under-deliver -> Define target -> Test -> Remediate -> Anger -> Acceptance -> Soft Launch -> Grand Opening -> Paint ceiling.
Northern Light
Superstar
I love your optimism.........
I'm not sure I agree that the ceiling will get painted..........
Northern Light
Superstar
It is, but it is not..........lets dissect that assertion just a bit...........but let me begin by posting the relevant slide:
Ok............so first off.........where did we get that 30,000 from?
That is Line 1, very optimistically, in rush, with a headway at or below every 2'30 with six-car trains.
Sheppard has been physically set up so that only four car trains can operate (the rest of the station boxes are there, but walled off)}
This is important, because it means if you maxed out Sheppard headway w/o ATC and PEDs you actually have an upper limit o f 20,000 per hour; I would argue for 19,000, and that's at crush-load.
*****
Also important to note is that Sheppard is running peak headway of every 5 min...............
Which means you drop that number by 1/2 again to every 9,500 or so.
*****
But before we get carried away w/theoretical numbers.........
If every 4-car train left the terminal station w/every seat filled, but no standees at every 5' you're actually looking at peak capacity of ~3,400 per hour
Obviously one expects some standees in rush hour, and you have to allow for some churn..........
But the numbers are not as wildly off as they first seem.
I would equally add, there is an artificial cap..........
By which I mean, the actual peak trains on Sheppard are crush-loaded.............w/no room for additional passengers.
This reflects a suppression of real demand.
****
Finally, we come back to the obvious, that a very short line, missing a key intermediate station (Willowdale) will naturally under perform its potential.
nfitz
Superstar
LOL.
Don't forget everyone, that's there's already the approved EA ... does it get all the way from Dufferin to Agincourt? (I guess the east-end is no good now). There should be 100% design available for the Consumers Park and Victoria Park stations, that were cancelled late in the process because of budget.
Northern Light
Superstar
Took a bit of digging.......... the original EA was in 1992.
TPL has copies, but their online system is down.
But, good ol' Transit Toronto had some archival material on point.
I love the cost comparison vs LRT:
****
The above is actually from a follow-on report, not the original, but served the purpose of answering the question.
Here's the link. The backward reference to the 1992 review begins in document at p.46
picard102
Senior Member
Is this common, or were they fudging some numbers?
Northern Light
Superstar
That was 31 years ago! LOL
I'm not going to go back and try to pull apart all of their work, assuming I could find the basis of the assumptions.......
That said, the original (existing) Sheppard subway was built for ~950M. (that day's money)
The original line, inclusive of tail tracks is a bit over 6km, the line all the way to STC would have been ~13km so that doesn't sound absurd on cursory examination.
I can't remember the cost of the vehicles back then, so I'm not going that far into the weeds.