Rob Ford's Toronto

[casita]

FN seems to have a lot of out of town support. I think we all agree on that.

But, I'm not sure if it is because they want the Fords as leaders for themselves, or if it is schadenfreude over Toronto's humiliation.

 

[RoboHobo]

I don't know, how many people who voted for the Liberals in the last election would flip to Conservative because of DoFo? There was a pretty strong anti-Hudak effect that played out in the provincial election, one has to think that those people would be just as eager to keep a Frod out.

It feels like deja-vu all over again. Hudak is ancient history, no one cares about him. Generally speaking do not underestimate DoFo. I agree with the below that if DoFo had more time he would have won. Because the general public are not like you and I, thoughtful and considerate. DoFo appeals the basest emotions of people, jealousy, anger, greed, the FU I got mine attitude.

DoFo can easily be the Premier. All he has to say is 'Toronto sucks, I'm glad I did not elected Mayor now I can help you folks out" because tonnes of people hate Toronto. He can also gently remind us the Premier is a lesbian. Trust me on this that will get him elected. He's a fat guy that is rough around the edges. People love that. Mike Harris 2.0.

 

[RoboHobo]

FN seems to have a lot of out of town support. I think we all agree on that.

But, I'm not sure if it is because they want the Fords as leaders for themselves, or if it is schadenfreude over Toronto's humiliation.

It is both. Very weird.

 

[RoboHobo]

The thing is people won't vote for DoFo because he's a Progressive Conservative, it's because he is a taxpayer supporting, penny watching everyman that people can have a beer with. His wife is hot, his kids are attractive, his grammar is poor, people identify with him for whatever bizarre reason. We seem to have forgotten the lessons we learned during the mayoral election.

"Sudbury, Timmins, The Sault, you all get Subways!"

 

[casita]

It is both. Very weird.

"Stockholm syndrome, or capture-bonding, is a psychological phenomenon in which hostages express empathy and sympathy and have positive feelings toward their captors, sometimes to the point of defending and identifying with them."

Can you imagine having to send JoTo, with hat in hand, to Queen's Park to beg Doug for Smart Track money?

 

[wombat]

Not Really Close At All

When they pulled the switcheroo, people said that Doug stood no chance of winning, and he came far too close for comfort. I think you're underestimating the support for Doug out in the province, he certainly could win the PCPO, and he could beat Wynne too, especially if there were any more scandals to come out of the provincial liberals.

Actually I beg to differ with all the revisionist history that has Doug Ford coming "jaw-droppingly close" to winning on election night.
Doug did well considering the Fords had a maximum ceiling of about 33% of the vote available to them, judging from the polling. He somehow managed to get all of that support out to the polls. That did surprise me given that the Fords had no organization and ground game whatsoever, and it speaks to the passionate support the Fords get from their bedrock base in suburban wards. I actually think Doug did better than Rob would have, because Doug - rightly or wrongly - wasn't as encumbered by scandal.(He should have been, but that's another argument)
But ... and it's a BIG but ... there was never enough support on the table at any time in this campaign for the Fords to win the election. The only hope they had was for Chow to surge by at least 10% in the last week and take all of that 10% from John Tory. Of course, by that time the Chow trendline was clear. She wasn't going to get anything over 25% and would quite probably get less.
Ask yourself what would have happened if Ford and Tory had gone head to head without a 3rd candidate in the race. My guess is Doug would still have pulled down the same numbers - 30 to 33% - but it would go down in history as a beatdown of biblical proportions. Tory would have easily garnered at least 55% and would have had a realistic prospect of getting 60% of the popular vote.
Now, it might be true that the Fords have a great deal of support beyond the boundaries of the city, in the 905 region and perhaps in the 705, as well. But I've never seen any reliable polling that suggests that, so forgive me if I'm skeptical.

 

[basic]

Bear in mind that the Ford Nationalists did really well in wards 1 and 2 in Toronto, which normally votes Liberal - if they have greater loyalty to Doug Ford (and it appears they do), he could deliver an extra seat or two there alone.

I've mentioned before in this thread that the PCPO needs far more than a few seats in Toronto to become the ruling party.

 

[JWBF]

Just watched LeDrew interview Doug.

< barf bag >

Doug seems to be pushing the Horatio Alger style pretty hard.

According to Hunter S. Thompson, Horatio Alger (American Dream) = Circus Circus Las Vegas. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circus_Circus_Las_Vegas

It definitely explains the obsession with casinos and amusement parks (ala Ferris Wheel) at the Port Lands.

"Stockholm syndrome, or capture-bonding, is a psychological phenomenon in which hostages express empathy and sympathy and have positive feelings toward their captors, sometimes to the point of defending and identifying with them."

View attachment 37642

Can you imagine having to send JoTo, with hat in hand, to Queen's Park to be Doug for transit money?

Maybe we should just call it the Toronto Syndrome due to the amount of apologists we have here.

I would be more worried of Dougie pushed through a "strong mayoral system" in Queen's Park and installed another Ford or Fordite on the throne.

I've mentioned before in this thread that the PCPO needs far more than a few seats in Toronto to become the ruling party.

Truth will never get in the way of a good old spin of pseudo logic... propaganda and FUD rules Dougie's camping.

 

[casita]

We seem to have forgotten the lessons we learned during the mayoral election.

We'll have to go though it all over again soon enough. God forbid JoTo is unable to complete his term.

It's almost like studying how World War One ended, making the Second World War almost inevitable. ( On a much less dramatic scale, of course. )

A ten-month election campaign, with at least one Ford signing up on Day One. The endless pandering and dividing. How many candidates? 70? Many demanding to be included in the debates. How many debates? 50? That's not counting the untold number of special appearances where candidates are expected to say a few words.

Ford Nation. Howler monkeys. Strategic voting, or "vote with my heart". Ford family, who's next? I wouldn't count Rob out either. What is incurable today is curable next Wednesday.

The most disappointing thing ( to me ) about the last four years is that people today are not demanding that we return to letting the councillors elect our leader.

I would be more worried of Dougie pushed through a "strong mayoral system" in Queen's Park and installed another Ford or Fordite on the throne.

That is a very real possibility. < shudder >

 

[RoboHobo]

Strategic voting, or "vote with my heart". < shudder >

Strategic voting beat the dogshit out of "vote with my heart". There are legions of Chow voters who are quietly satisfied with Tory so far. Chow voters, you are welcome we did the heavy lifting.

 

[Long Island Mike]

Actually, I've found my l'il corner of America to be on a par - or actually more educated/active, politically - than, say...Toronto ;D Partisan politics aside (comic is clever but similar ones can and have been done when the Dems win, of course. Indies like me inevitably chuckle - and shiver - at both), the biggest thing that makes the election of dead people or candidates who have withdrawn (the GOP candidate for State Senate in our District withdrew but came within 4% of winning, in this election) happen is the ability to vote a straight 'party ticket' with one tick-box. If they didn't die or withdraw prior to the deadline...they just got voted for, along with all the others running in your electoral district for your party of choice. Add in the truly uneducated voters who just know or like the name, and ones who vote for the dead guy as a protest, and yep, can happen.

Problem is...without the ability to vote a straight party-ticket, even fewer would bother to vote. Even longer wait-times and loooooong ballot forms to complete, inevitably have that result. And voter turn-out isn't great now. So, no one wants to take the slate-vote ability away.

A final thought regarding the election here, and voter turnout - it wasn't entirely the American people having spoken. Big factor was the American people who didn't bother. Overall voter turnout was lousy, but was at least 10% higher in every district tracked by various news agencies, that historically trended Republican (and went GOP again this time in almost every case) as well as some of the big Dem 'unseating' districts. Who can get the vote out, is key. Too many are willing to let other American people speak for them.

Same everywhere though, I think, by all reports. That and voters who let everyone else think for them, too. *sigh*

Racquette: Interesting post concerning the recent US Elections...

The lack of turnout percentage hurt the Democratic Party big time and with the Republicans taking over the US Senate it will
be interesting to watch which faction gets the upper hand: Establishment or the Tea Party - and I believe if there is two more
years of gridlock and partisan problems like the threat that some right-wing GOP representatives made to impeach President
Obama over the Immigration Reform problem there will be a hefty price that they will pay in the 2016 Election...

New York State did stay in Democratic control with Andrew Cuomo being re-elected Governor but the Republicans made some
gains...I saw the mention of Representative Michael Grimm (NYC:Brooklyn,Staten Island) being re-elected and I agree that was
a bad choice there to retain him...

I have heard mentioned that if the Republicans "overplay their hand" during 2015-2016 that voters will again send a message
especially if the same partisan gridlock that now exists continues...Hilary Clinton at this point is the odds-on favorite to be the
top candidate for the Democratic Party's Presidential nomination if she runs...

In closing one of the most frustrating things about politics today in both the US and Canada is the divisive "Us Vs. Them" mentality
that is used today...Just remember "United We Stand - Divided We Fall" - and that forgotten word "Compromise"...

LI MIKE

 

[Lamport Davenport]

Imma'gree with Greg Banks that Doug might have a better strategy with a friendly takeover of the Trillium Party of Ontario.

They don't seem to have a website, so Doug's templates would be a boon for a start. Their current leader's social media posts seem to be adequately acidic n angry to suit Doug's oeuvre, so I'd say Greg is right that there's a fit. Trillium also seems to have a better track record outside Toronto, so that might help the big lug.

If Doug could use his piss n vinegar flavour to attract more FN types, or at least Toronto-Sun-cultivated Folks to his new Party of the Disaffected he might have evidence of "support" . This in turn could be parlayed into a position where the PCPO feels the need "to bring them into the fold", thus creating a merger with Trillium.

Given that some PCPO members would prefer to scrape the bottoms of our shoes looking for the next Mike Harris rather than reach out to Red Tories, the PCPO can expect to stay in the wilderness, dwindling members, for some time to come.

A merger with a Dofo-led Trillium Party might seem like a good offer, especially since few seem to want to join their main circle jerk.

 

[L23]

Actually I beg to differ with all the revisionist history that has Doug Ford coming "jaw-droppingly close" to winning on election night.
Doug did well considering the Fords had a maximum ceiling of about 33% of the vote available to them, judging from the polling. He somehow managed to get all of that support out to the polls. That did surprise me given that the Fords had no organization and ground game whatsoever, and it speaks to the passionate support the Fords get from their bedrock base in suburban wards. I actually think Doug did better than Rob would have, because Doug - rightly or wrongly - wasn't as encumbered by scandal.(He should have been, but that's another argument)
But ... and it's a BIG but ... there was never enough support on the table at any time in this campaign for the Fords to win the election. The only hope they had was for Chow to surge by at least 10% in the last week and take all of that 10% from John Tory. Of course, by that time the Chow trendline was clear. She wasn't going to get anything over 25% and would quite probably get less.
Ask yourself what would have happened if Ford and Tory had gone head to head without a 3rd candidate in the race. My guess is Doug would still have pulled down the same numbers - 30 to 33% - but it would go down in history as a beatdown of biblical proportions. Tory would have easily garnered at least 55% and would have had a realistic prospect of getting 60% of the popular vote.
Now, it might be true that the Fords have a great deal of support beyond the boundaries of the city, in the 905 region and perhaps in the 705, as well. But I've never seen any reliable polling that suggests that, so forgive me if I'm skeptical.

You seem to be ignoring the fact that a lot of people voted for Tory because he's a conservative. If DoFo won and became PCPO, a lot of those conservative votes would go to him, not to Wynne.

 

[L23]

I've mentioned before in this thread that the PCPO needs far more than a few seats in Toronto to become the ruling party.

Talk to people outside of Toronto, there's a lot of support for the Ford nationalist 'manifesto'. I'm not just talking about the conservatives picking up votes within Toronto, but outside Toronto as well.

 

[Lamport Davenport]

L23, do you live outside Toronto, or spend a lot of time talking to Folks "out there" ?

Do you think Doug would still be OK once the inevitable media dirt circulated more outside T.O?