2012 the doomsday budget? Not so much
Robyn Doolittle
Urban Affairs Reporter
Sitting in an uptown restaurant 11 months ago, a top official in Mayor Rob Ford’s inner fold revealed the master plan for his term.
The 2011 budget would be pain-free. The mayor would drain hundreds of millions in surplus and reserve funding left by David Miller and get three huge payoffs for it. One, Ford could deliver an unexpected property tax freeze to curry favour with the voters who just put him in office. Two, he could fill the structural deficit gap without making a single significant service cut. And three — the most important — it would remove the safety net.
“Councillors will be forced to approve what we put forward,” said the official. “It was never about 2011. The real showdown will be for 2012.”
That day is Monday.
City manager Joe Pennachetti will present staff’s recommended 2012 operating budget — which insiders say is heavily influenced by the mayor. A month of consultations and debate will follow, then it’s over to the executive committee Jan. 12, and finally council will make its decision the following week.
The three-day marathon meeting will be the most significant of Ford’s term to date. It will be the first indication of how much hard-line support the mayor has left after a year of embarrassing gaffes that made cross-country news.
“I won’t speculate on the numbers. But the mighty middle has grown,” said Councillor Josh Colle, de facto leader of the centrists on council, which are just a few votes shy of holding the balance of power.
Left-wing Councillor Joe Mihevc said Ford’s entire reputation is on the line.
“If he can’t cut those things he really wants to, those things he’s been after for years and years (as a councillor), that will be a big loss for Ford,” said Mihevc.
Back to that uptown meeting nearly a year ago: So what is it that the mayor is after?
He wants a smaller work force, said the official, and an end to pet social programs that he believes a broke city like Toronto has no business running. Ditto for many of the environmental projects. It’s nice to be green, but can taxpayers afford it? And when it comes to the arts, no one wants a war with TIFF, but is the private sector kicking in as much as it could?
Mayor Ford wants to contract out everything he can, not as some ideological swipe at the unions, but because it will actually save millions and millions of dollars, he added. Finally, the Ford administration was going to do what no other mayor had been able to. It was going to tame the police budget.
At the time, it all seemed very feasible.
But fast-forward to today, and that wish list isn’t looking so realistic anymore.
Case in point: James Pasternak, a freshman councillor representing York Centre, who for most of last year ranked among the true believers on the votes-with-Ford scorecard.
“The red lines have been drawn. I will not support cuts to many of our social services and arts programs. (Library) branch closures are a non-starter. Daycares — we’ve got a problem, but we can’t unilaterally just cut those without a parachute from the province… I support the environment,” Pasternak said.
Although he won’t explicitly admit the change, Pasternak is one of nearly half a dozen previously consistent right-wing voters who have moved towards the middle and out of the Ford whip.
“The votes in the different budget items are going to be tantalizingly close,” he said. “If you look at the votes in the last few council meetings, things are getting through or failing by one or two.”
In an email to the Star, Pennachetti declined an interview request, stating he won’t be making any comment until after the budget is released Monday.
The official line from the mayor’s office is that Pennachetti will need to find $774 million to balance the books, but for months it’s been known that number is drastically lower, thanks to unexpected property tax revenues from new buildings, the land transfer tax and Toronto Hydro dividends, among other things.
Most estimate the gap is somewhere around $200 million now, if not lower.
Throughout the week at City Hall, there has been wide speculation as to what Pennachetti will offer up to the guillotine to fill that gap, and what will be spared.
Most councillors feel the intense backlash over the KPMG report findings will keep libraries off the chopping block, but museums, some grants programs, and TTC funding — which would be mitigated by a 10- to 25-cent fare hike — are safe bets to be cut.
Firefighters will probably be left alone, given that the mayor’s office did a complete about-face on its pledge to rein in police spending. Daycares are a wild card. As is arts funding.
Ford has also signaled he can stomach somewhere between a 2 per cent and 3 per cent property tax hike, as well as some user fee hikes.
“I don’t think it will be as scary as advertised a year ago. I don’t think we’re going to see any proposals that rip the very fabric of the city apart, as was suggested a year ago,” said Councillor Josh Matlow, a centrist.
When it comes down to it, the major savings are going to be in the bodies. Pennachetti has confirmed that this budget will include savings through attrition and layoffs.
Earlier this year, the Star learned the administration hopes to reduce the overall city workforce by as many as 3,000 people. The city’s voluntary severance program was largely unsuccessful. Only 230 buyouts were accepted of the 1,140 applications. It was not clear if those numbers include people in emergency services.
Asked if he thinks his colleagues are willing to make unpopular cuts, Deputy Mayor Doug Holyday, a longtime fiscal conservative, said they had better, “or they won’t be back here next time.”
“I think in the end, the majority will do it. I appreciate a lot of people here don’t want anything to change, but we can’t afford to do that without an enormous tax hike.”
