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Rob Ford's Toronto

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jusbokeh said:
Question:
The way redactions work, only people who are suspects part of the investigation wont be redacted correct?

if ford was involved but as a witness or mole, will his name get redacted?
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Witnesses (including CIs), minors, agents, officers, and for "state" security.

Unless of course, a witness waives the protections, etc.
 
Franks2000inchTV said:
But the documents have only been released to Media Counsel. in fact, even the media can't see them yet.

Their counsel won't be making arguments until Sept 12th. After that, they can write stories about it.
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Exactly. But do we really believe that this legal team will keep it to themselves? Off the record, speaking with their clients (the media) they will advance information to high level staff (editors and executives) so the papers know what to expect. They can't publish anything but they sure will start getting their stories ready.
 
dforthandbview said:
I think Ford's admission today was meant to set up a defense front for when the crack video comes out. Now he can tell his people that it was just pot he was smoking.
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There's a big difference in the design of a crack pipe and a pipe for smoking pot. If the recording is of half decent quality, "I was smoking pot" (with crack dealers) won't fly.
 
MetroMan said:
Exactly. But do we really believe that this legal team will keep it to themselves? Off the record, speaking with their clients (the media) they will advance information to high level staff (editors and executives) so the papers know what to expect. They can't publish anything but they sure will start getting their stories ready.
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And how long until they CAN publish - is that the Sept 12 date that was spoken of earlier?
 
guitarchitect said:
And how long until they CAN publish - is that the Sept 12 date that was spoken of earlier?
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Ontario court judge Philip Downes ruled Tuesday that the Crown must hand over the documents to media lawyers by Aug. 27 so they can form arguments for having the materials made public.........

The Crown will be allowed to redact sensitive parts of the documents before the full hearing. Then, lawyers will return to court no later than Sept. 12, according to the Star, “to argue which sections should remain redacted before the document is made public.â€
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http://j-source.ca/article/judge’s-ruling-gives-media-lawyers-access-warrants-sought-media-outlets

This suggests to me that September 12 is the latest date that the crown has to argue which parts should remain redacted. What this means is the hearing could actually happen before September 12th. Whatever the date we can be sure that within minutes of the Judge authorizing the final release of the documents the various media outlets will have this information up on their website. We might even see a copy posted on the Courts website.

I doubt that we will see anything leaked before then because that would involve defying a court order. Not going to happen IMO.
 
If you'll permit me to be pessimistic, aren't we more or less at the point where this whole situation in unsalvageable? I mean, I don't think anyone can seriously entertain the possibility that Ford will get a 2nd term at this point. Which means that he's inching ever closer to serving out his term. Even if he doesn't, I think getting to the January nomination period will be victory enough for him. After that, Ford can be all "Let me serve out my term" if anyone calls for him to quit. Even if he withdraws, his people will insist that he "deserves" the full term. So really, we're getting close to the point of no return here.
 
MetroMan said:
Exactly. But do we really believe that this legal team will keep it to themselves? Off the record, speaking with their clients (the media) they will advance information to high level staff (editors and executives) so the papers know what to expect. They can't publish anything but they sure will start getting their stories ready.
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I'm sorry, but what kind of lawyers are the media hiring? The kind who communicate through hotmail?
 
Adaax said:
If you'll permit me to be pessimistic, aren't we more or less at the point where this whole situation in unsalvageable? I mean, I don't think anyone can seriously entertain the possibility that Ford will get a 2nd term at this point.
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If were a betting man, at this point I'd put money on him winning re-election. The only thing that could derail the bid is if the video surfaces.
 
animatronic said:
If were a betting man, at this point I'd put money on him winning re-election. The only thing that could derail the bid is if the video surfaces.
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Honestly I no longer really care whether he gets elected again or not. I just want to video to surface so that it can wipe the smirk off the faces of the Toronto Sun commenters who keep insisting the entire thing is a Toronto Star led left wing conspiracy.
 
animatronic said:
If were a betting man, at this point I'd put money on him winning re-election. The only thing that could derail the bid is if the video surfaces.
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I think the video will surface, but if it happens past January the scenario will have changed significantly. As for his re-election chances, the money men that backed him up last time around will find a new pony next year, for obvious reasons. Populism alone only takes you so far.
 
Adaax said:
I think the video will surface, but if it happens past January the scenario will have changed significantly. As for his re-election chances, the money men that backed him up last time around will find a new pony next year, for obvious reasons. Populism alone only takes you so far.
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This exactly. Ford may have the incumbency advantage and he may still be popular with his base, but he has no financing and no campaign organization. This combination will either lead to him breaking complex electoral rules multiple times before election day (i.e. donating to himself) becoming disqualified or being outspent to the point where he can't get his message out or at the very least appears to be a second tier candidate, conceding the race to the two big campaign spenders.

Another factor is that Ford has already stated that he'll be avoiding the debates until the last month (he said he may do one or two). This will allow the new official Conservative flag bearer to steal his message while Ford appears to be missing in action or avoiding the campaign or running away. Finally, many of those who voted for Ford in 2010 unaware of who he was before his profile was raised with all these scandals will almost certainly not be supporting him this time if there's a viable candidate. I can scarcely find anybody who will admit to voting for him. Where did all those people go?

Of course all this doesn't guarantee that he'll be beaten and I wouldn't discount the incumbency advantage and the free press he'll get as Mayor and as Rob Ford but he's going to be severely handicapped this time around. This will not be anything like the 2010 election. Unless there's a massive vote split with 3 or more anti-Ford candidates who manage to remain financed and in the race until election day, then Ford won't be able to gather more than 30%, specially if a viable Conservative is in the final 2 or 3. If theres a star candidate like Olivia Chow, I'm very confident that Ford is going to receive a very satisfying to watch beating of a lifetime.

Nevertheless, and since we're talking bets here, I'd wager that between now and the election, one of the following is going to take him down:

  • The video leaks
  • The video is shown in court
  • Ford is charged with obstruction of justice and is either convicted (disqualified from running for public office) or awaiting trial during the election with that cloud hanging over him
  • Ford is linked to Project Traveller
  • If Ford is indeed addicted to substance abuse, he will not last 1 year sober. The Danforth drunkenness scene demonstrates clearly that he's a loose canon and it's only a matter of time before the next episode hits - and people have their cameras ready.
  • Another unforseen scandal
  • One or more candidates or a debate moderator is finally able to lift the curtain on Ford. Ford is going to be brutally cross examined and we all know how he performs under pressure (see Conflict of Interest trial).
  • Rob Ford 1969-2014
 
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